The really powerful work of the women at Greenham Common remind us today of the power of the people to stand against the #billionaires the #military the #rich and that we have #MoreInCommon when we stand in #solidarity for #PeaceNotWar
#EndGenocide
#Gaza
#Iran
Albert Ward: Reform UK refute suggestions they’ve ‘hit a ceiling’ but they have and here’s why
Albert Ward is a Senior Research Fellow at More in Common. Reform’s recent polling has led many to ask…
#NewsBeep #News #Headlines #2026LocalElections #DonaldTrump #Focusgroups #MoreinCommon #NigelFarageMP #Polling #ReformUK #RobertJenrickMP #UK #UnitedKingdom
https://www.newsbeep.com/394307/
This is accurate as of now but will be revised by them in the next few days. #moreincommon suggests a comparable result currently. Unfortunately #morganmcsweeney appears to be so spooked by #reformuk that the challenge from the #greens is being ignored by #Laɓour !
@nisjasper Ja, mehr Begegnungsorte schaffen wäre so wichtig. Volle Zustimmung! Wer dazu noch mehr Infos will, kann sie z.B. bei More in Common finden: https://www.moreincommon.de/forschung/begegnung-orte/
Saturday, December 6, 2025
Ukrainian drones make 9th strike Russia's Ryazan Oil Refinery this year -- HUR says it destroyed Russian Su-24 tactical bomber, other targets in occupied Crimea -- Russian forces execute yet another Ukrainian POW -- Majority of Americans think Ukraine territorial concessions, troop cap would hand victory to Russia ... and morehttps://activitypub.writeworks.uk/2025/12/saturday-december-6-2025/
Reform UK gains support in areas with high child poverty
Analysis of polling data shows party competes directly with Labour in poorer heartlands
Support for Reform UK has surged in areas with higher rates of child poverty, underlining the rightwing populist party’s potential to connect with disillusioned voters in Labour’s heartlands.
A Financial Times analysis of election projections by pollster More in Common shows the vast majority of constituencies where Reform is expected to perform well have higher than average child poverty rates.
Reform UK gains support in areas with high child poverty, Financial Times
New polling shows Reform surge – redrawing the political map in South West Wales
A new MRP forecast by research group More in Common suggests Reform UK is now the dominant political force across South West Wales, overtaking Labour in multiple constituencies and setting the stage for a dramatic shift in both Westminster and Senedd representation.
The July 2025 model, based on polling of over 10,000 UK adults, projects Reform UK to win 290 seats nationally, with Labour trailing on 126 and the Conservatives collapsing to 81. But the most striking changes are happening closer to home—particularly in Llanelli, where a once-safe Labour seat is now projected to fall decisively to Reform.
Westminster Projections: Reform Gains Across the Region
ConstituencyProjected WinnerReform UKLabourPlaid CymruConservativeLib DemGreenOthersOutcomeLlanelliReform UK44%15%27%6%3%1%5%Reform Gain from LabourSwansea WestReform UK29%20%21%10%12%4%4%Reform Gain from LabourNeath & Swansea EastReform UK26%23%22%8%8%3%11%Reform Gain from LabourGowerReform UK32%30%2%17%2%4%15%Reform Gain from LabourBridgendReform UK44%22%13%6%8%4%4%Reform Gain from LabourAberafan MaestegReform UK39%21%13%7%14%2%5%Reform Gain from LabourCaerfyrddinPlaid Cymru39%12%39%9%1%6%4%Plaid HoldCeredigion PreseliPlaid Cymru52%8%52%9%4%6%2%Plaid HoldMid & South PembsReform UK34%19%5%26%5%4%7%Reform Gain from ConservativeBrecon, Radnor & Cwm TaweReform UK34%16%16%8%19%6%1%Reform Gain from Liberal DemocratLlanelli: A Case Study in Reform’s Rise
The most symbolic shift is in Llanelli, where Labour veteran Dame Nia Griffith is now projected to lose her seat to Reform UK by a 29-point margin. This follows a series of local breakthroughs:
Reform’s Local Ground Game: Beyond Llanelli
Reform’s rise isn’t limited to Llanelli. In Bridgend, the party recently won a council by-election in Pyle, Kenfig Hill and Cefn Cribwr, beating Labour by just 30 votes (coverage). That victory, combined with the MRP projection of a 22-point lead in the parliamentary seat, suggests a deep shift in voter sentiment.
What This Means for the 2026 Senedd Election
The next Senedd election will be the first under a new proportional voting system, with 96 MSs elected from 16 six-member constituencies. Based on current polling, Reform UK is projected to win the most seats in the Senedd—but not a majority.
According to Swansea Bay News’s earlier analysis (read more), the most likely outcome remains a Plaid–Labour coalition, despite Reform’s lead in vote share. This is due to the proportional system rewarding broad but balanced support across constituencies.
Updated Senedd Projections for Swansea Bay Region
Senedd ConstituencyComposed of Parliamentary SeatsProjected MSs (by party)Gŵyr AbertaweSwansea West + Gower2 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 Plaid, 1 Lib DemBrycheiniog Tawe NeddBrecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe + Neath and Swansea East2 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 Plaid, 1 OtherAfan Ogwr RhonddaAberafan Maesteg + Rhondda and Ogmore3 Reform, 2 Labour, 1 Lib DemSir GaerfyrddinLlanelli + Caerfyrddin3 Plaid, 2 Reform, 1 LabourCeredigion PenfroCeredigion Preseli + Mid and South Pembrokeshire3 Reform, 2 Conservative, 1 LabourPen-y-bont Bro MorgannwgBridgend + Vale of Glamorgan2 Labour, 2 Reform, 1 Conservative, 1 PlaidThese estimates reflect the July 2025 MRP vote shares applied to the D’Hondt method. Final outcomes will depend on turnout, candidate lists, and campaign dynamics.
A Region in Political Flux
The combined effect of Westminster polling, local by-election results, and Senedd projections suggests South West Wales is undergoing a historic political realignment:
For more on how these changes could affect your community, follow the Politics section of Swansea Bay News.
#Election #MoreInCommon #ParliamentaryElection #politics #ReformUK #SeneddElection #WelshConservatives #WelshLabour #WelshLiberalDemocrats
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