Mastodawn

Olivia A-C Feb 21, 2025

New account, so new #introduction. Let's do it again!

I have a #MastersDegree in #ComputerScience and #ComputerEngineering. I went to #NMU for undergrad and #MSU for my graduate degree. I currently work at #UChicago for the #TMWCenter, which focuses on helping young children acquire language (and therefore other learning skills) faster.

In my spare time, I develop #OpenSourceSoftware such as
- a #SphinxDoc extension that embed #Fediverse comments on your page
- a library to talk to #ManifoldMarkets from native #Python
- a #PredictionMarket manager using the above
- a #transpiler from a subset of Python to #OpenStreetMaps's #OverpassQL
- bug fixes to many other projects, including #mypy, #base58, #attrs, #CPython, & more

I spend a fair bit of my time these days on #MathResearch, specifically into the #ThueMorse Sequence and its extensions.

I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

#Demisexual, #transfem, and happily engaged to my #enby sweetheart.

We have two cats: #OpheTheLoaf and #MayalaranTheCat (yes, from #StormlightArchive) See here for more on them!

I speak English fluently, Spanish haltingly, and am trying to learn Chinese

#queer #Chicago

Olivia A-C (@LivInTheLookingGlass)

These are our cats, #OpheTheLoaf and #MayalaranTheCat. Ophelia was originally my partner's, we live together full time now, and are an integrated family Fun facts about Ophelia: * She is missing a tooth, so her lip sometimes gets stuck open in a cute way * She has an "activation noise" that sounds kinda like a pigeon * She will often do 10/10 loafs, hence the nickname Some facts about Maya: * Her favorite hobby is judging the neighbors * She is very anxious * She has an incredibly dainty play style * She has a series of increasingly ridiculous nicknames: Mayalaran -> Maya -> Mayo -> Aioli -> Au Jus (Follow the hashtags if you want just my cats) #CatsOfMastodon #CatsOfFedi (📎8)

TransFem Space

Olivia A-C Dec 18, 2024

Oh dang, my #introduction post is waaay out of date now. Let's do it again!

I have a #MastersDegree in #ComputerScience and #ComputerEngineering. I went to #NMU for undergrad and #MSU for my graduate degree. I currently work at #UChicago for the #TMWCenter, which focuses on helping young children acquire language (and therefore other learning skills) faster.

In my spare time, I develop #OpenSourceSoftware such as

a library to talk to #ManifoldMarkets from native #Python
a #PredictionMarket manager using the above
a #transpiler from a subset of Python to #OpenStreetMaps's #OverpassQL
bug fixes to many other projects, including #mypy, #base58, #attrs, #CPython, & more

I spend a fair bit of my time these days on #MathResearch, specifically into the #ThueMorse Sequence and its extensions.

I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

#Demisexual, #transfem, and happily engaged to my #enby sweetheart.

We have two cats: #OpheTheLoaf and #MayalaranTheCat (yes, from #StormlightArchive)

#queer #Chicago

Erwin Rossen 🔸Sep 18, 2024

I used to like #ManifoldMarkets. At first, you played for a currency they called Mana, and you could donate your Mana for real money for a charity. After a while, they determined to split this up in Mana and Prize money, and only prize money could be donated. Now, there's another change. All Prize money I had collected so far is gone, and another currency called Sweepcash replaces this, but can only be used by residents of some American states. So gone are the $36 I had saved up for charity! 😡

Noit Jul 17, 2024

Today’s #prediction market: which of the crop of #Conservative candidates will be the final two presented to the membership?

I suspect they’ll want to stick to a centre / right choice, so Badenoch + Tugendhat feels most likely. I suspect the membership would be fuming if they didn’t get a chance to vote for Badenoch as she seems far and away the most popular.

https://manifold.markets/Noit/which-two-candidates-will-conservat-jiecsute0y?r=Tm9pdA

#ukpolitics #ManifoldMarkets

Which two candidates will Conservative Party MPs present to party members for the final leadership vote?

The UK Conservative and Unionist Party is holding an election to decide their next leader. The format of the contest is that the party's MPs will hold a series of votes to winnow the candidate list down to a final two, and those two candidates will then be presented to the party membership for a final decisive vote. This question resolves YES to the pairing of two candidates that are presented to the membership for that final vote. If for any reason there is no final membership vote (e.g. there is only a single candidate, all other candidates stand down, or the format of the contest is changed such that there is not a final two presented to the membership) then this will resolve to "No membership vote".

Manifold

Lilith Apr 8, 2024

Saw a couple people were trying to get #LibreMonday off the ground. Here's my contribution.

https://manifold.markets/ is a free and open source prediction market platform that allows users to place bets on if something will happen using internet points. The calibration (how accurate the site is) is extremely good. The community is also amazing and extremely kind. I highly recommend you check it out.

Source code: https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold
Ref link if you want to give me free internet points: https://manifold.markets?referrer=Rucker

#foss #opensource #predictionmarket #manifoldmarkets

Olivia A-C Mar 2, 2024

I really *want* to go back to #ManifoldMarkets, but I find myself anxious when I do. I gave myself too much responsibility to make it fun anymore. If I do go back, I am going to mostly be a trader

Show thread

Rai Jan 5, 2024

@foone @niki here, there's been a market on #manifoldmarkets about this for a while: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-chatbotting-replace-ghosting-b?r=YWdlbnR5ZHJhZ29u

Will "chatbotting" replace "ghosting" by end of 2029?

26% chance. Hot take. Today some people will "ghost" someone by not replying to their messages. But, in the grim dark future, they will instead "chatbot" them by hooking their incoming messages up to a language model. Eg, the LLM may simulate a person gently breaking up with them over time, or who is too busy for another date right now. Resolves yes if in early 2030 I think this hot take was hot. Resolves no if not. If I am dead the market resolver may substitute their own opinion.

Manifold

bazpoint Nov 15, 2023

Was just listening to an interesting podcast (#HardFork) on #ManifoldMarkets & #PredictionMarkets in general... keen to have a play but thought I would ask if anyone here has a #Manifold referral code they would like me to use? 😁

(For anyone thinking "eh?" - it's a betting prediction market on all aspects of life - not just sports & politics. And it's just play money. Still, probably best avoided for anyone for whom gambling is an issue!)

Erwin Rossen 🔸Jun 28, 2023

Who will win the Premier League 2023-2024? Place your Manifold Market bets here!

https://manifold.markets/ErwinRossen/who-will-win-the-premier-league-202

#PremierLeague #ManifoldMarkets

Who will win the Premier League 2023-2024?

The The Football Association Premier League Limited, better known as simply the Premier League, starts again on 11 August 2023 with Burnley v Man City and ends on 19 May 2024 with an entire round of matches. At the end of the season, which team will be leading this league? At the time of writing, it is unknown yet if Manchester City will be relegated, so they still have a chance of winning the title.

Manifold

Erwin Rossen 🔸Jun 22, 2023

I have created my first prediction market on #ManifoldMarkets about the share of #solar in Dutch electricity production in 2030. Go ahead and have a bet if you have an opinion on it!

https://manifold.markets/ErwinRossen/will-the-share-of-electricity-produ?r=RXJ3aW5Sb3NzZW4

Will the share of electricity production in The Netherlands from solar exceed 25% in 2030?

76% chance. In 2014, 0.71% of electricity in The Netherlands was produced using solar panels. Eight years later, in 2022, 14.57% of electricity in The Netherlands was produced using solar panels, a 20x increase. Source: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-electricity-solar?tab=chart&time=2014..latest&country=~NLD [image]However, this growth is hard to maintain: the electricity net already as problems managing these peak loads during sunny periods of time, and energy storage is still not a viable option. This market resolves YES if the share of electricity production from solar on Our World in Data for 2030 is equal to or higher than 25%, and resolves NO if this number is lower than 25%. If Our World in Data is unable to provide this data, I will search for an alternative reliable source. If none can be found, this market resolves N/A.

Manifold Markets