Belki de Geçenler İçin

Tarihi Bıçakçı Han’da bir buçuk yıl boyunca yapılan yürüyüşlerden beslenerek Haletiruhiye Semt Sakinleri sanatçıları tarafından gerçekleştirilen Belki de Geçenler İçin adlı sergi üzerine.

Will anyone in the leaked Houthi War chat be fired/resign by the end of April?

38% chance. [tweet]Absurd story out of The Atlantic today as one of their editors-in-chief is added to a Signal chat discussing military strikes in Yemen with key Trump administration figures. As far as I can tell, the actions here are potentially illegal and definitely a huge disaster for at least 3 reasons: Adding the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic to a discussion of highly sensitive military objectives Having the chat over Signal, which is not approved by the government for sharing classified information Having on disappearing messages, which likely violates federal records acts. This market resolves YES if any of the following people are no longer in the Trump administration by the end of April for any reason related to this Signal thread and leak: Michael Waltz (National Security Adviser) JD Vance (Vice President) Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense) Susie Wiles (White House Chief of Staff) Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence) Marco Antonio Rubio (Secretary of State) Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary) John Ratcliffe (CIA Director) Steve Witkoff (Middle East and Ukraine Negotiator) Brian McCormack (Representative for National Security Council) Alex Wong (Deputy to National Security Adviser) Mike Needham (Counselor of State Department) Dan Caldwell (Representative for Defense) Dan Katz (Treasury Chief of Staff) Joe Kent (Director of National Counterterrorism) Andy Baker (Representative for Vice President) Stephen Miller (Homeland Security Advisor) I'll be fairly loose about the reason being related to the leaked thread. If they're fired and it's unknown why but we have a decent suspicion, that counts. Same for people leaving/resigning and not explicitly being "fired". Update 4/19: Politico is reporting that Caldwell has been fired. I want to be as clear as possible with this since I anticipate things could get somewhat subjective, so I’ll say now: As of this moment, I don’t see any reporting directly tying it to the signal thread - especially since Caldwell was fired among other colleagues who weren’t involved. But, if such reporting does emerge, it doesn’t have to be the only or even dominant reason he was fired. I put “fairly loose” in the description, and I intend to stick to that. Update 4/21: If Hegseth is out before the end of April this is almost certainly a YES. Even if other factors contributed to the departure the signal chat will certainly have been a part of it.

Children of Men

Alfonso Cuarón’un 2006 yapımı kültleşmiş filmi Children of Men, insan soyunun tükenişe yüz tuttuğu bir dünyada umut etmenin anlamına dair bir tefekkür sunan, karanlık ile aydınlığı iç içe geçiren bir ahir zaman filmi.

Will anyone be fired or resign for the Yemen War Plans group chat?

38% chance. See this article for context: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans/682151/ Resolves YES if Michael Waltz, one of his staff members, or anyone else implicated in the war plans breach described by Jeffrey Goldberg in the Atlantic, is fired or resigns by the end of June for this reason. Resolves YES if someone is fired and it's not explicitly stated why, or an excuse is given that is different than this one, but the consensus of trustworthy/media sources are at least fairly confident that it is because of this breach. Must happen by the end of June. Update 2025-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Update on Resolution Criteria: Resignations linked to perjury: A resignation that occurs because an individual perjures themselves in relation to the breach described in the article will count. Connection to the breach is required: The resignation must clearly be tied to the war plans breach as discussed, even if the stated reason (perjury) is not the exact wording used in the market description.

Manifold Fitting under Unbounded Noise

Six months after Jimmy Carter dies, who will be the primary death market of choice for Manifold users to create/bet on?

Determined by combination of data and/or poll if need be when the time comes

Will Pope Francis cease to be pope before the end of 2025?

100.0% chance. This question resolves YES if Pope Francis (Jorge Mario Bergoglio) ceases to be pope of the Roman Catholic Church for any reason before the end of 2025. See also: (https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-pope-francis-cease-to-be-pope)

Will Pope Francis be alive through the end of 2025?

0.1% chance.

İlaç Geliştirmede Yapay Zekâ

Yapay zekâ ilaç geliştirme süreçlerini gerçekten hızlandırıyor mu yoksa bu konuda yapılan çalışmalar bir hype’tan mı ibaret? İlaç geliştirme ve hastalık tedavisinde yapay zekâ kayda değer bir etki ve fark yaratabilecek mi?

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of murder, before 2026?

18% chance. Background On December 8th, 2024, UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was fatally shot in New York City. Luigi Mangione has been identified as a "strong person of interest" and is currently in custody for questioning in connection with the murder. As of now, he has not been charged with any crime. Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if: Luigi Mangione is convicted of murder (any degree) in connection with Brian Thompson's death by a court of law before January 1st, 2026. Luigi Mangione pleads guilty to murder charges in connection with Brian Thompson's death before January 1st, 2026. The market will resolve NO if: Mangione is acquitted of murder charges No conviction is reached by January 1st, 2026 Charges are dropped or reduced to lesser charges (e.g., manslaughter) Mangione is never formally charged with murder Mangione dies before a conviction is reached