Dự báo khí tượng thủy văn mang tính cảnh báo, không thể chi tiết đến từng ngành

Theo lãnh đạo Cục Khí tượng thủy văn (Bộ NN&MT), dự báo khí tượng thủy văn có tính chất cảnh báo sớm, không thể chi tiết đến từng bộ, ngành hay từng quận, huyện. Các cơ quan phải căn cứ trên bản tin để ra quyết định trong phạm vi quản lý của mình.

Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Rapid transitions between extreme wet and extreme dry conditions — ‘hydroclimate whiplash’ — have marked environmental and societal impacts. This Review outlines observed and projected changes in hydroclimate whiplash, suggesting that subseasonal and interannual volatility will increase markedly with ongoing warming.

Impact of Climate Change on Hydrometeorology and Droughts in the Bilate Watershed, Ethiopia

This study aims to assess the potential impacts of climate change on hydrometeorological variables and drought characteristics in the Ethiopian Bilate watershed. Climate projections under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were obtained from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Africa for the near future (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) periods. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to assess changes in watershed hydrology with the CORDEX-Africa data. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) were calculated to identify the characteristics of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts, respectively. Due to a significant rise in temperature, evapotranspiration will increase by up to 16.8% by the end of the 21st century. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the annual average rainfall is estimated to decrease by 38.3% in the far future period, inducing a reduction of streamflow of up to 37.5%. Projections in reduced diurnal temperature range might benefit crop growth but suggest elevated heat stress. Probabilities of drought occurrence are expected to be doubled in the far future period, with increased intensities for all three types of droughts. These projected impacts will exacerbate water scarcity and threaten food securities in the study area. The study findings provide forward-looking quantitative information for water management authorities and decision-makers to develop adaptive measures to cope with the changing climate.

Hydrometeorology - Wikipedia

Quantifying Sediment Deposition Volume in Vegetated Areas with UAV Data

Floods are frequent hydro-meteorological hazards which cause losses in many parts of the world. In hilly and mountainous environments, floods often contain sediments which are derived from mass movements and soil erosion. The deposited sediments cause significant direct damage, and indirect costs of clean-up and sediment removal. The quantification of these sediment-related costs is still a major challenge and few multi-hazard risk studies take this into account. This research is an attempt to quantify sediment deposition caused by extreme weather events in tropical regions. The research was carried out on the heavily forested volcanic island of Dominica, which was impacted by Hurricane Maria in September 2017. The intense rainfall caused soil erosion, landslides, debris flows, and flash floods resulting in a massive amount of sediments being deposited in the river channels and alluvial fan, where most settlements are located. The overall damages and losses were approximately USD 1.3 billion, USD 92 million of which relates to the cost for removing sediments. The deposition height and extent were determined by calculating the difference in elevation using pre- and post-event Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) data and additional Light Detection and Raging (LiDAR) data. This provided deposition volumes of approximately 41 and 21 (103 m3) for the two study sites. For verification, the maximum flood level was simulated using trend interpolation of the flood margins and the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) was subtracted from it to obtain flooding depth, which indicates the maximum deposition height. The sediment deposition height was also measured in the field for a number of points for verification. The methods were applied in two sites and the results were compared. We investigated the strengths and weaknesses of direct sediment observations, and analyzed the uncertainty of sediment volume estimates by DTM/DSM differencing. The study concludes that the use of pre- and post-event UAV data in heavily vegetated tropical areas leads to a high level of uncertainty in the estimated volume of sediments.