Mastodawn

Donald Roy Feb 2, 2025

@ChrisMayLA6
I agree. The poll cited is by #focaldata - who have an excellent record due not least to #jameskanagasooriam (whose work in #scotland rescued #theresamay in #ukgeneralelection2017 ). #electoralcalculus has produced very similar results to it. Using their open access model suggests that a return of just 3% of voters back to #labour from #reformUK would give #Laɓour a substantial majority. The 3% group is not anti-immigration but expects actual delivery from the #labour government.

Show thread

Susan Larson ♀️🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️🌈Aug 19, 2024

#VicePresident #KamalaHarris leads #Trump in 5 of 7 #battleground #states: #poll

Harris leads Trump in #Pennsylvania, #Michigan, #NorthCarolina, #Wisconsin, and #Nevada when 3rd parties are factored in, according to new #polling from #British #firm #Focaldata

https://www.semafor.com/article/08/18/2024/harris-leads-trump-in-five-of-seven-battlegrounds-poll

Harris leads Trump in five of seven battlegrounds: poll | Semafor

The former president, meanwhile, has the edge in Arizona and Georgia.

UK Election Results Jul 3, 2024

GB MRP OPINION POLL

Headline Westminster seats projection from final MRP by #FocalData:

🔴 Labour: 444 (+241)
🔵 Conservatives: 108 (-257)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 57 (+46)
🟡 SNP: 15 (-33)
⚪ Reform UK: 2 (+2)
🌻 Plaid Cymru: 2 (-2)
🟢 Green Party: 1 (=)

Conducted 24 June - 1 July 2024. Changes with 2019 GE result.

Details, including map: https://www.focaldata.com/blog/focaldata-prolific-uk-general-election-mrp-final-call

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #SNP #ReformUK #PlaidCymru #MRP #GE2024

Focaldata / Prolific UK General Election MRP: Final call

On the eve of the election, Focaldata in partnership with Prolific can reveal our final seat forecast of the 2024 general election. We find Labour on course for a 238-seat majority, a record-breaking result that sees the party winning 444 seats, based on a 40% share of the national vote (-1.4pp since our last drop). The Conservatives are expected to win in 108 constituencies (-2 since our last drop), based on a 23.2% vote share (+0.2pp).

UK Election Results Jun 25, 2024

From the #FocalData MRP:

Remain voters:
🔴 Labour: 52%
🔵 Conservatives: 18%
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 15%
🟢 Green Party: 6%
⚪ Reform UK: 4%

Leave voters:
🔵 Conservatives: 31%
⚪ Reform UK: 29%
🔴 Labour: 27%
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 7%
🟢 Green Party: 3%

Did/could not vote in referendum:
🔴 Labour: 53%
🔵 Conservatives: 15%
⚪ Reform UK: 11%
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 10%
🟢 Green Party: 8%
https://www.focaldata.com/blog/focaldata-prolific-uk-general-election-mrp

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #ReformUK #Brexit #GE2024

Focaldata / Prolific UK General Election MRP

Today, Focaldata in partnership with Prolific publishes its MRP model of the 2024 General Election. We find that Labour is on course for a 250-seat majority – based on a 41.4% share of the national vote versus 23.0% for the Conservatives. Our forecast leaves the Conservatives with 110 seats, including losses in Godalming and Ash (Jeremy Hunt), Cheltenham (Alex Chalk) and Monmouthshire (David TC Davies). The SNP face becoming the second party in Scotland, with Labour putting on 32 seats.

UK Election Results Jun 25, 2024

MRP OPINION POLL

Headline Westminster seats projection from MRP poll by #FocalData/#Prolific:

🔴 Labour: 450 (+248)
🔵 Conservatives: 110 (-255)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 50 (+39)
🟡 SNP: 16 (-32)
🌻 Plaid Cymru: 2 (-2)
🟢 Green Party: 1 (=)
⚪ Reform UK: 1 (+1)

Conducted 3-20 June 2024. Changes with 2019 GE result.

Details, including caveats and analysis: https://www.focaldata.com/blog/focaldata-prolific-uk-general-election-mrp

#ukpolitics #ukpol #polling #Labour #Conservatives #LibDems #GreenParty #SNP #ReformUK #PlaidCymru #MRP #GE2024