Mastodawn

Donald Roy Mar 11, 2025

Before the current travails of #reformuk could be taken into account #electoralcalculus gave #labour a 54% chance of holding the seat. This must now have improved somewhat. However it is never wise to underestimate #labour 's capacity for gratuitous self-harm - the selections of candidates for the #hartlepool and #rochdale byelections being cases in point! It has been reported already that #jonathanashworth may be interested in standing .

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Donald Roy Feb 2, 2025

@ChrisMayLA6
I agree. The poll cited is by #focaldata - who have an excellent record due not least to #jameskanagasooriam (whose work in #scotland rescued #theresamay in #ukgeneralelection2017 ). #electoralcalculus has produced very similar results to it. Using their open access model suggests that a return of just 3% of voters back to #labour from #reformUK would give #Laɓour a substantial majority. The 3% group is not anti-immigration but expects actual delivery from the #labour government.

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Donald Roy Oct 6, 2024

@huxley @ChrisMayLA6

The latest projections from #electoralcalculus reduce the number of #labour seats by roughly sixty as against the #generalelection total. The #conservatives are the main beneficiaries - nearly fifty up, followed by 'other' - effectively left independents - and then #Reformuk with five or six apiece and the #snp with one. So perhaps a good time for #morganmcsweeney to move sideways! And there were reports of an event - now cancelled - with 'cash for access' for business!

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Donald Roy Aug 10, 2024

Since then #labour has represented it for nearly half - twenty seven to be exact - of the past sixty years. The most recent analysis - by #electoralcalculus - places it in the safer half of #labour #parliamentaryconstituencies - with a very similar ranking to its eastern neighbour - #battersea . How far I may have contributed to that process in recent years is not for me to say - but I may have some insight into what happened.