@ChrisMayLA6

I do not expect the initial decision to refuse permission to #andyburnham to be reversed in time for him to make the short list let alone the long list. That means that members in the #gortonanddenton constituency #labourparty will not be able to consider him. A quick check on the - publicly available - #electoralcalculus site puts the #greens ahead of #labour - although not by much - and #reformuk in third place there.

@ChrisMayLA6

Before the current travails of #reformuk could be taken into account #electoralcalculus gave #labour a 54% chance of holding the seat. This must now have improved somewhat. However it is never wise to underestimate #labour 's capacity for gratuitous self-harm - the selections of candidates for the #hartlepool and #rochdale byelections being cases in point! It has been reported already that #jonathanashworth may be interested in standing .

@huxley @ChrisMayLA6

The latest projections from #electoralcalculus reduce the number of #labour seats by roughly sixty as against the #generalelection total. The #conservatives are the main beneficiaries - nearly fifty up, followed by 'other' - effectively left independents - and then #Reformuk with five or six apiece and the #snp with one. So perhaps a good time for #morganmcsweeney to move sideways! And there were reports of an event - now cancelled - with 'cash for access' for business!