Anthropogenic amplification of precipitation variability over the past century

Wenxia Zhang, Tianjun Zhou , and Peili Wu

25 Jul 2024

Abstract
"As the climate warms, the consequent moistening of the atmosphere increases #ExtremePrecipitation. #Precipitation variability should also increase, producing larger wet-dry swings, but that is yet to be confirmed observationally. Here we show that precipitation variability has already grown globally (over 75% of land area) over the past century, as a result of accumulated #anthropogenic warming. The increased variability is seen across daily to intraseasonal timescales, with daily variability increased by 1.2% per 10 years globally, and is particularly prominent over Europe, Australia, and eastern North America. Increased precipitation variability is driven mainly by thermodynamics linked to atmospheric moistening, modulated at decadal timescales by circulation changes. Amplified precipitation variability poses new challenges for weather and climate predictions, as well as for resilience and adaptation by societies and #ecosystems."

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adp0212

#ExtremeWx #Drought #UnpredictableWeather #ExtremeRains #Flooding
#ClimateCatastrophe #GlobalWarming #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #Resiliency #ClimateAction #ClimateActionNow

#Rainfall is increasingly unpredictable due to #ClimateChange

By Rodielon Putol
Earth.com staff writer
July 28, 2024

"In recent years, rainfall patterns worldwide have transformed dramatically, with many regions experiencing unprecedented changes in precipitation due to climate change.

"Folk tales about the wet seasons seem to have turned into reality. #TorrentialDownpours are becoming more common. These #HeavyRains disrupt daily life. They also challenge infrastructure meant for milder weather.

"At the same time, dry areas are facing longer #droughts, raising concerns about climate change and its impact on #UnpredictableWeather.

"These prolonged dry spells have severe implications for #agriculture, #water supply, and #ecosystem health, making the need for comprehensive climate action more urgent than ever.

Climate change and rainfall variability

"A groundbreaking study now solidifies the connection between human-induced climate change and erratic rainfall patterns, offering compelling evidence of the far-reaching impact of #HumanActivities on the #GlobalClimate system.

"The research vividly demonstrates that human actions have sparked a significant global shift towards more volatile rainfall patterns, disrupting traditional weather cycles and increasing the frequency of #ExtremeWeather events.

"This significant finding validates what climate models have long predicted, highlighting the urgent need for effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to address the growing #ClimateCrisis."

Read more:
https://www.earth.com/news/rainfall-is-increasingly-unpredictable-due-to-climate-change/

#ExtremeWx #ExtremeRains #Flooding #ClimateCatastrophe

Rainfall is increasingly unpredictable due to climate change

Climate change causes erratic rainfall, intensifying floods and droughts. New study highlights urgent adaptation needs.

Earth.com

#TropicalStormSara to unleash life-threatening #flooding in #CentralAmerica

Tropical Storm Sara will bring an extreme risk to lives and property in Central America where feet of rain may fall before tracking toward #Florida next week.

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Nov 14, 2024

"Rain may pour down for days on the northern parts of #Nicaragua and #Honduras before shifting to eastern parts of #Guatemala, #Belize and southeastern #Mexico this weekend.

"A general 8-12 inches (20-30 cm) will fall in this zone, but a large pocket of 12-18 inches (30-45 cm) of rain is forecast from northern Honduras and Nicaragua, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 50 inches (127 cm).

"'This amount of rain will trigger major #FlashFlooding and #mudslides with the potential for catastrophic loss of life and tremendous damage,' AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter warned.

"Some communities could be cut off for days due to washed-out roads and bridges or blocked by debris flows. Demands for rescue and recovery efforts, as well as food and medical supplies, will be great in the wake of the storm in the region.

"Because of Sara's proximity to the #Caribbean for several days, it will likely not unwind fully. As a result, winds, waves and #StormSurge will blast the coast of #Honduras, eastern #Guatemala, #Belize and Mexico's #Yucatan Peninsula. Sporadic #PowerOutages are likely due to #StrongWinds."

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/tropical-storm-sara-to-unleash-life-threatening-flooding-in-central-america/1713878

#CentralAmericaWx #ExtremeWx
#ExtremeRains #ExtremeWeather #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis
#ClimateCatastrophe

Thousands evacuated as parts of #Spain hit with nearly a month’s #rainfall in one hour

By Allison Chinchar, Caitlin Danaher, Mia Alberti, CNN, and Pau Mosquera, CNN en Español
November 14, 2024

"Severe thunderstorms and torrential rain have again battered coastal Spain, causing thousands of people to be evacuated just two weeks after the country experienced deadly #flooding in Valencia and other nearby communities.

"Over 4,000 people and a thousand homes have been evacuated in the #Malaga area, according to a Thursday update from Antonio Sanz, the director of the Emergency Plan for the Risk of Flooding in #Andalucia.

"Five areas near the Guadalhorce riverbank were preemptively evacuated due to the risk of overflowing.

"In just one hour, nearly a month’s worth of rainfall inundated the city of Malaga, in Spain’s Andalusia region, according to the country’s meteorological agency AEMet. The southern Spanish province picked up roughly 100 millimeters (4 inches) of rain so far on Wednesday, 78 millimeters (3 inches) of which fell within an hour. Malaga normally averages 100.5 millimeters in the month of November.

"The Spanish meteorological agency has issued red warnings in the Andalusia and Catalonia regions for extreme rainfall with reports of impassable roads and flooded basements in several towns.

"Video from the scene shows streets in Malaga submerged in water."

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/13/europe/spain-rain-thousands-evacuated-malaga-intl-latam/index.html

#SpainWx #ExtremeWx #ExtremeRains #SpainFlooding #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateCatastrophe

Thousands evacuated as parts of Spain hit with nearly a month’s rainfall in one hour

Severe thunderstorms and torrential rain have once again battered coastal Spain, causing flooding and evacuations just two weeks after the country experienced deadly flooding in Valencia and other nearby communities.

CNN

'Dying of thirst' as climate-driven floods mix with oil

Maura Ajak & Stephanie Stafford

"Herders scooping murky water from a small pond in grasslands in South Sudan are well aware of the dangers they face if they drink it.

"'The water is dirty because this place has oil - it has chemicals in it,' says their chief, Chilhok Puot.

"Nyatabah, a woman from this community raising cows in the heart of oil fields in Unity State, adds: 'If you drink it, it makes you pant and cough.

"'We know it's bad water, but we don't have anywhere else, we're dying of thirst.'

"A former oil engineer, David Bojo Leju, has told the BBC World service that flooding in the area is washing #pollution into water sources.

"Large swathes of the state have been under water for several years after unprecedented #flooding, which scientists say has been worsened by #ClimateChange.

"Mr Bojo Leju says the floods are a 'disaster' and that pollution from mismanaged oil facilities is a 'silent killer' spreading across the state.

"South Sudan is the world’s youngest country and one of its poorest, with a government hugely dependent on oil revenue.

"Unity State, a major oil-producing state, has always experienced seasonal flooding. But in 2019, #ExtremeRains brought a deluge that engulfed #villages, #grasslands and #forests. Year after year of intense rainfall followed. The water built up, trapped on the clay soil.

"At the worst point in 2022, two-thirds of Unity State were submerged, according to the UN World Food Programme (#WFP) - even now, it says about 40% is still under water."

Read more:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gpmx7z0xno

#PetroState #GPOC #UnityState #Oiligarchy #BigOilAndGas #WaterIsLife #SouthSudan #Pollution #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateCatastrophe

Climate change: Floods 'spreading oil pollution' in South Sudan

With swathes of South Sudan submerged, a whistleblower warns water sources are being polluted by oil.

#ClimateChange quadrupled rainfall in parts of #Bangladesh, northeast #India, new research shows

“While the total rainfall in most of these regions is decreasing, our paper shows #ExtremeRains are increasing.”

"The CMIP6 projection indicates that more devastating #flood-causing extreme rainfall events will become more frequent in the future."

https://www.tbsnews.net/environment/climate-change/climate-change-quadrupled-rainfall-parts-bangladesh-northeast-india-new

Climate change quadrupled rainfall in parts of Bangladesh, northeast India, new research shows

“While the total rainfall in most of these regions is decreasing, our paper shows extreme rains are increasing,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, co-author of the research paper

The Business Standard