At least in #Poland all the time I hear otherwise reasonable people who say “let’s make a deal with #Russia with US as a guarantor”.
This is easily dismissed as a trivial naivety, but why doesn’t it work? Because Russia never honors any agreements with parties it considers weaker. Russian elites largely follow code of ethics originating from organised crime, similar to Italian Omertà.[^1] In this system you’re either a “man”, whose word can be relied upon, or a “loser” (Russian: лох), who can be exploited in any way, including deception. And, as a matter of fact, not exploiting a “loser” and holding a word given to him is a honor offense for the “man” himself. Putin often directly or indirectly refers to the criminal “code of ethics” in his public speeches, and occasionally uses terms from the criminal jargon (Russian: феня). Russian popular culture in response started to popularize and idealize it, even in TV series.[^2]
Lesson about “making deals with Russia” had been hard learned by many countries. In 1945 in Yalta[^3] leaders of USA and UK made a deal with Stalin where in Soviet-liberated #Poland there would be democratic elections under international supervision. What Soviet did was first mass-arrests[^4], then entirely falsified referendum[^5] and then falsified elections[^6], which sealed Poland’s fate as a Soviet colony for the next 42 years.
From recent history, #Ukraine had written security assurances from Russia in Budapest Memorandum[^7], guaranteed by US and UK, and also mutual friendship treaty with Russia signed in 1997.[^8] In 2014 Russia walked upon both of them as if they never existed. Even more recently, the ceasefires agreed in 2015-2019 Minsk Agreements were violated by Russia on the next day they were signed - Russians simply never stopped their offensives. As an added bonus, all that time Russia allso pretended it’s not Russian armed forces conducting these attacks.[^9]
That’s exclusively because in Russian thinking you are allowed to sign any agreement and promise anything to the other party but you’re not expected to deliver, as long as you consider them “losers”. This is what Russia did - in Yalta, Budapest and Minsk they made promises because US and UK wanted them and it helped push Russian political goals. But they never intended to honour them for even a minute.
That’s why “making deals with Russia” alone won’t work as long as their enforcement relies exclusively on international law, which - no need to explain - Russia also consider for “losers”.
You can of course make a successful deal with Russia if it’s supported by hard reciprocal measures, such as anti-tank trenches, mine fields or drones and rockets targeted at Russian military installations. But anything signed exclusively on paper won’t hold.
[^1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omert%C3%A0
[^2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boy%27s_Word:_Blood_on_the_Asphalt
[^3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yalta_Conference
[^4]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August%C3%B3w_roundup
[^5]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1946_Polish_people%27s_referendum
[^6]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1947_Polish_parliamentary_election
[^7]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum
[^8]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian%E2%80%93Ukrainian_Friendship_Treaty
[^9]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements
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