Brian StrouselhousenMar 1
Matthew Sheffield

In case you were wondering, before this morning's Iran attack, Polymarket had yet another spate of likely inside traders betting that the US would strike Iran by February 28.

Per the due diligence investigation service Bubblemaps, the wallets used were first used 24 hours earlier.

Betting prediction websites are national security risks, not Anthropic.

Mar 1 at 2:05amMastodon for iOS
Show threadpLMar 1
@mattsheffield F-22s were spotted in Israel on like Thursday. Was a pretty safe guess.
Show threadel Celio 🇪🇺 🇺🇦Mar 1
@pl @mattsheffield
it could have been March 1st
Show threadpLMar 1
@elCelio @mattsheffield I don't use whatever that platform is but it'd be interesting to see if it had any other "attack by" bets, although that'd ruin the whole conspiracy thing
Show threadQuinn NortonMar 1
@mattsheffield wow, and yikes.
Show threadQuinn NortonMar 1

@mattsheffield @mattsheffield wow, and yikes. One would think there would be laws, but alas we forgot to care meaningfully about the rule of law or common sense recently

...Though that doesn't stop LLMs from being terrible for humanity too 😁

Show threadThomas Lee ✅ Mar 1
@quinn @mattsheffield there are indeed laws. At least in the UK.
Show threadQuinn NortonMar 1
@DoctorDNS @mattsheffield pretty sure you guys don't have any laws governing polymatket.
Show threadThomas Lee ✅ Mar 1
@quinn @mattsheffield we have gambling laws. These prohibit polymarket in the UK. To trade, they would need a gambling license which they do not currently hold. They even do geofencing. So your assertion us incorrect.
Show threadQuinn NortonMar 2
@DoctorDNS @mattsheffield sorry, what I mean is there's no law stopping Brits from gambling on polymarket and other prediction betting stuff. You'd probably have to at least try to geofence it to manage that.
Show threadgluttoMar 1

@quinn @mattsheffield

What happens when the lawkeepers are dedicated loyalists? Well, this...

Show threadKevin Karhan Mar 1

@mattsheffield I guess some Pentagon employees made a killing with this.

Show threadTim FinnertyMar 1
@kkarhan @mattsheffield pun intended?
Show threadTimjanMar 1

@mattsheffield

Once the correlation between betting markets and future real world news is established and widely known, what will be the real world consequences when large bets are placed in order to trigger certain preemptive military responses?

Show threadpatatasMar 1
@timjan
thanks for the nightmare fuel!
@mattsheffield
Show threadSlightlyCyberpunkMar 1

@patatas @mattsheffield @timjan Ever heard of Jim Bell's "Assassination Politics"?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Bell#%22Assassination_Politics%22_essay

https://dn720002.ca.archive.org/0/items/bell-jim-assassination-politics-1997/Bell%2C%20Jim%20-%20Assassination%20Politics%20%281997%29.pdf

Jim Bell - Wikipedia

Show threadpatatasMar 1
@admin
Ughhhh
This does sound vaguely familiar though. I was thinking maybe David Golumbia wrote about this mf but he's not mentioned in The Politics of Bitcoin afaict
@mattsheffield @timjan
Show threadpatatasMar 2
@admin oh cool, turns out Golumbia did write about Jim Bell in Cyberlibertarianism, was just flipping through the pdf copy that’s on my to-read list
Show threadRoger Ap GwillianMar 1

A famous Australian footballer, Peter "Crackers" Keenan, well known as a regular gambler, once said "Never bet on anything that can talk".

Even in the 1980s, a football player who got his nickname from the regular wacky things he did and said, realised that gambling on people who would absolutely rig the system was a dumb idea.

Betting agencies should all be disbanded, shut down, and abolished for good.

Show threadShadSterlingMar 1
@mattsheffield why_not_both.gif
Show threadʙᴇɴ ᴄᴏᴛᴛᴇяɪʟʟMar 1
@mattsheffield https://www.threads.com/@gtconway3/post/DVUVUZLkYcF
George Conway (@gtconway3) on Threads

the clip:

Threads
Show threadJörg MaschtalerMar 1
@mattsheffield I don't think these websites are a national security risk but are a part of transparency of what's going on.
Show threadffalaschiMar 1
@mattsheffield
Not very much inside traders: the whole world was aware that Saturday was the likely day of the attack on Iran 🤷🏼‍♂️
Show threadlukalobster 🇪🇺Mar 1
@mattsheffield the real threat to security is your government....
Show threadAvi Rappoport (avirr)Mar 1
@mattsheffield perverse incentives
Show threadWulfy—Speaker to the machinesMar 1

@mattsheffield

#polymarket > #pizzaindex

At least Whisky Leaks made pizzerias around Pentagon happy

Show threadThomas Lee ✅ Mar 1
@mattsheffield polymarket is dissallowed here in the UK. For good reasons!
Show threadDrew 🇵🇭 ♾️Mar 1

@mattsheffield
"Betting prediction websites are national security risks, not Anthropic."

You know it's possible for both to be, simultaneously, right?

Show threadebajniMar 1
@mattsheffield Not if the ones in charge of the nation are doing it
Show threadgaryMar 1
@mattsheffield it is an evolution of the pizza shop
Show threadDaveKazMar 1
@mattsheffield yeah surprising with all the hardware the US were sending to the Middle East over the last few weeks. /s Also both prediction markets and AI can be a security issue.
Show threadAlex UsedToGoToVeniceMar 1
@mattsheffield por_que_no_los_dos.gif
Show threadEd DaviesMar 1
@mattsheffield Anybody look into what's been happening on the oil futures markets?
Show threadBredrollMar 1
@mattsheffield @molly0xfff wow!
Show threadRAKMar 1
@mattsheffield: Anthropic is an international security threat regardless; neither Anthropic nor Polymarket should legally exist.
Show threadJonathanMar 2

@mattsheffield

They both can. There's enough national security risk to go around.

Show threadDio9sysMar 2
@mattsheffield I love to live in an era where we bomb other countries so that some chud can make a quick buck on the gambling market