A good* historical tour.

“The statistics are brutal. Fascist takeovers prevented after winning power democratically: zero. Average length of fascist rule once established: 31 years. Fascist regimes removed by voting: zero. Fascist regimes removed by asking nicely: zero. Most were removed by war or military coups, and tens of millions died in the process.”

https://medium.com/@carmitage/i-researched-every-attempt-to-stop-fascism-in-history-the-success-rate-is-0-a665e2e048a2

* for various versions of “good”, see replies for corrections and context that some people feel is lacking. They sent lots of comments to me but zero to the author?

“The pattern is so consistent it’s almost funny if it weren’t so terrifying. Every single time it goes like this: Conservatives panic about socialism or progressives or whatever. They ally with fascists as the “lesser evil.” Fascists take power. Fascists immediately purge anyone who stands in their way. Then it’s 30–50 years of dictatorship. This happened in Germany, Italy, Spain, Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Greece, Portugal, Croatia, Romania, and Hungary.”

https://medium.com/@carmitage/i-researched-every-attempt-to-stop-fascism-in-history-the-success-rate-is-0-a665e2e048a2

@c_9 was it all with the same dictator for the whole run or did the dictator die and succesfully get replaced?

@chantaryu2 @c_9

In the case of Spain, Franco the dictator died and left the mechanisms to put a monarchy of thieves.

In Italy they hunged down the bastard on a petrol station.

And last, but not least, in Germany the coward shoot himself on the head.

@DBG3D @c_9 my understanding was that once a dictator dies, it's very hard for another dictator to pick up the baton and keep going because it's a cult of personality. North Korea nothwithstanding because it's a dynasty and the sons pretend to be the incarnation of the original dictator.

@chantaryu2 @c_9

No its not. Because you can have the second in command after the dictator replacing him. There are cases.

@DBG3D @c_9 thank you for correcting my impression. This is bleak though.
@DBG3D @chantaryu2 @c_9 Germany also violently forced almost the entire world to take care of regime change. Probably the only reason the regime lasted much shorter there than the 30-50 years stated above.
@hllizi @DBG3D @chantaryu2 @c_9 funny thing is if the Austrian painter had not aligned himself with Japan it's likely that the US of A would not have entered the conflict and you all can see how that would have ended...

@chantaryu2 @c_9 Estado Novo (now Portugal et al) successfully transitioned peacefully from the dictator of near 40 years, who then fell into a coma, to one that'd serve another 6 before the state spontaneously collapsed.

Part of the trick is they both contented themselves to ‘only’ being PM operating under a degree of nominal presidential oversight, and so providing legitimacy for the changeover — in theory a constitutional process was followed.

@c_9

"Let's elect the guys who are categorically against democracy, freedom, and everything we stand for. What could possibly go wrong?" 

@c_9 @jrdepriest That is totally not true! The US had its fascist president removed from office after just 4 years! It was so easy we thought we'd do it all over again.

@mikemccaffrey

In Europe we had WW1, then WW2 - it's not over til it's over.

Unfortunately, appealing to common sense and people's better natures doesn't work with bullies in charge.

Bullies in leadership roles tend to have narcissistic personalities. They want more power because they are scared and will ramp that control and misdirection up every time they feel threatened.

 

@c_9 @jrdepriest

@srfirehorseart @mikemccaffrey @c_9 @jrdepriest

What if—wait, hear me out—it’s •never• over?

What if the body politic remembers, and if we don’t face our demons, they will raise our future generations?

I’m just asking questions.

@paninid @srfirehorseart @mikemccaffrey @c_9 @jrdepriest Our grandparents fought a WWar over fascism in Europe. But the children in the US, who grew up in a capitalist system, never faced it, many still racist, most likely disenfranchised, disgruntled on the Democratic processes that leave them struggling, and think a white racist prick will deliver the goods for them without nary a thought about the stability of our society. STUPID. 🔥

@paninid

Yes, in some senses it's never over.

You will put out a massive wildfire and restore safely but there will remain doubters ready to back the next enthusiastic pyromaniac that surfaces.

Also there will be some who 'never understood what all the fuss was about', because it didn't affect them directly, who will still light a bonfire in the danger zone to warm themselves regardless of the danger to others.

@mikemccaffrey @c_9 @jrdepriest

@srfirehorseart @mikemccaffrey @c_9 @jrdepriest And now, we have Gaia breathing fire and mayhem down our necks. It seems her patience has its limits.

@Huntn00

The potential for natural disasters is ever present, isn't it?

Perhaps all the technological advances since the industrial revolution/information age has blinded us to how little we still understand about the environment.

If we don't push back on practices creating modern deserts we risk modern culture becoming just as forgotten as Shelly's Ozymandias - buried in the sand.

@mikemccaffrey @c_9 @jrdepriest

@srfirehorseart @mikemccaffrey @c_9 @jrdepriest We had some cushion to learn, but the cushion appears to be used up and we haven’t learned… I’ll go farther and say we’re too stupid to understand what a death wish is because we can’t deal with or can’t recognize reality when we’re blinded by our personal desires to get advantages over each other, when we don’t see the big picture, when… we are too selfish and self-absorbed.

@Huntn00 @srfirehorseart @mikemccaffrey @c_9

By "we" you mean the psychopathic oligarchs and christofascists, because there are plenty of us who see what's happening but do not have the resources to do much to stop it.

@jrdepriest @srfirehorseart @mikemccaffrey @c_9 Not nearly as many as there should be, we’re (to generalize) a bunch of sheep too locked into our economies, to afraid to shake it up , and act in an organized group to call bullshit and demand better. There comes a time when writing your representative doesn’t cut it, and I’ll admit I don’t have myself up on a pedestal. I’m 72 whining and writing, but I’m not out marching. 😔
@mikemccaffrey @c_9 @jrdepriest Please do not interrupt the “voting is pointless” clowns with actual facts. LOL
@c_9 Jair Bolsanero, Yoon Suk Yeol
@pawsplay @c_9 Yep, Bolsonaro's an exception (although, like Trump, he's not entirely off the board yet cause he hasn't received enough consequences).
Yoon was basically stopped and removed by popular uprising (if people hadn't taken to the streets when he tried to coup, he'd gotten away with it).

@c_9
Rudolf Rocker notes something similar. He pointed out that the focus on parliamentary politics in Germany did next to nothing to stop the Nazis. Meanwhile in Spain, the CNT, union led resistance held back fascists for years.

https://archive.org/details/AnarchoSyndicalismTheoryAndPracticeByRudolfRocker

Anarcho Syndicalism Theory And Practice By Rudolf Rocker : Audible Anarchist : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

Rudolf Rocker (1873-1958) was an anarchist writer, historian, and activist. He wrote extensively on anarchist movements and thinkers. He is perhaps best known...

Internet Archive
@c_9 история учит тому, что никто не учится на чужих ошибках
@c_9 Pinochet has been evicted after losing a referendum. He staid in power for two more years after that, sure. He was commander in chief or the army for eight more years, right, but he was emprisoned. For two years, but still. Oh yeah that's right he was Senator-for-life until he died, but you know, democratically evicted! 🥳 /s

@c_9 worth mentioning that in the case of Spain, the CEDA won the 1933 elections, but then its government collapsed and they lost the 1936 ones… plus, it was Catholic corporatist, but not fascist, and most members opposed the Francoist regime after the Civil War

CEDA played no official role in the military uprising that sparked the Spanish Civil War. However, some of the party’s leaders, such as Gil Robles, were aware of the conspiracy in the army and tried to moderate it. Gil Robles met with Manuel Fal Conde, and offered CEDA’s support to the uprising if the rebels were to agree to hand power over to a civilian government as soon as control was established. However, the conspirators rejected this condition. On the eve of the civil war, the CEDA as a whole persisted in legalism and opposition to overthrowing the republic. Historian Samuel M. Pierce wrote that “there is little evidence of widespread support for the conspiracy among local cedistas”

After the civil war, many former CEDA members emerged as critics of the Francoist regime, including Gil Robles, Jesús Pabón, and Manuel Giménez Fernández. In 1944, Francoist police investigated CEDA members who stayed in Spain, including Cándido Casanueva y Gorjón, on suspicion of organizing resistance against the government; this led to several arrests. In the 1960s and 1970s, former CEDA cadres participated in the anti-Francoist Christian Democracy movement, and after the death of Franco, Gil Robles founded the Democratic People’s Federation and took part in the 1977 Spanish general election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CEDA#Rifts_and_civil_war

….and then we have to talk about how widespread in both sides violence was…. then the war happened and of course Franco stayed in power without a strong opposition afterwards, there were hundreds of thousands of war deaths and then the concentration camps and hearsay did the rest

but yeah, Spain getting ignored is still quite a thing nowadays, so 

CEDA - Wikipedia

@c_9 (also, 1/50 cases is not a 0%, but a 2%… still not great, but overall, I feel like the article is a bit of a mess, as much as I can agree with the overall message)

@xerz “One time out of roughly fifty attempts, fascists were stopped because they were stupid enough to try violence before winning elections.”

The 1 is not “after elected” as headline states, so the 0% is still correct. But not claiming article fantastic or anything.

@xerz @c_9 ye also the 30-50 years seems nonsense. in Germany the Nazis quickly started a war that they lost and that got them removed. sure some latest this long but actually several of the examples didn't make it to 30 years. Germany, Italy, Brazil...
@elexia @c_9 …yeah, it’d make more sense to say “the regime lasts until it blows itself from the inside”, either because or a revolt, a failed war, or because the leader dies after making oneself irreplaceable
@c_9 The UK Labour Party has been purging the left since at least the immediate post-WW2 era. It has never stopped.
@c_9 I don't know about other countries, but the Spanish example is very wrong.
@c_9 some valid points but standing on shaky grounds… elaborate Croatia please… @arroz
@c_9 this is untrue. It's neoliberal doomerism. Don't spread it.
@Geoffberner If you have data to share about what’s wrong, please feel free to share. Also feel free to use your social media account in the way you prefer. Don’t give strangers orders.
@c_9 Bolsanaro is a fascist. The ex-President of Korea is a fascist. That's just off the top of my head. These people can be beaten.
@c_9 also, it's a fundamental misunderstanding of what we're fighting against. We're against fascist laws and actions, like UK Labour's proscription of Palestine Action, like Obama's forced deportations. Like Carney's public ass-kissing of Trump. States operate on a spectrum of fascism, and our job is to yank the needle back to the left, whatever banker, banker's friend, general or whoever is running the place.
@c_9 So Conservatives are the problem as if this hasn’t been known by a great number of us. This history is repeating itself in the USA. The real question will be are we just another herd of sheep to be manipulated or will we fight to prevent it? Unknown at this time.
Personally, I don’t see it being revolved peacefully, there must be resistance. There must be force otherwise it will be forced upon us.
@c_9 how about a fascist with nukes, we got any data on that?

@c_9 which is why bullets work.

Just like WWII. The .30-00 Garand was the most effective vaccine against nazis.

@c_9 When did Germany have 30- 50 years of dictatorship?

@anne_twain @c_9

There was a dictatorship in Germany from 1933 to 1945.
During the GDR era, there was a party dictatorship, but that was only in East Germany, not in West Germany.
In this respect, there was a dictatorship in the whole of Germany from 1933 to 1945 before World War II—that's not 30 years, but 12 years.
https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/lexika/lexikon-in-einfacher-sprache/249843/diktatur/

Diktatur

Diktatur bedeutet, dass eine Person oder eine kleine Gruppe von Menschen allein herrscht. So eine Gruppe kann zum Beispiel eine Partei sein. In einer Diktatur ist die Herrschaft der Person oder der Partei nicht begrenzt. Es gibt zum Beispiel keine

bpb.de
@werawelt Thank you. I knew it wasn't 30-50 years. I wonder if it's true of any of the countries he lists. I notice @c_9 hasn't replied.
@anne_twain @werawelt I didn’t write the article, and I’ve replied to multiple comments when I’ve had time. Please feel free to make your own posts on social media, rather than make insinuations about strangers.
@c_9 @werawelt Suggested alt "I apologise for posting an inaccurate article. Thank you for drawing my attention to the errors."
@anne_twain @werawelt I agree the single line suggesting always 30+ years is an exaggeration. The replies have many different claims about most of the countries, many contradictory. I found it an interesting link to share and I’m glad it spurred discussion, because it’s telling me things i can learn more about. The responses are not however universally negative about specific facts, so the suggested alt response wouldn’t feel genuine to me. I don’t yet have reason to assume your responses alone are most correct, so I need to read up I guess!
@c_9 In the decades following WWll every aspect of the war was recounted, discussed, debated in all the media. I was born in 1952 so I grew up hearing a lot about it - it would have been hard not to. Younger people didn't have that background, I guess. Sometimes I forget how long I've been alive, and that things that seem like common knowledge to me, are in the deep dark past for younger generations.
Reading up on the rise of Franco, Hitler and Mussolini sounds like a good idea in the light of current world events. Democracy is fragile: it can so easily turn into something else.
@anne_twain Absolutely agreed. We spend a lot of time educating our son on the darkness that is rising so he is better equipped to become an adult and survive it.

@c_9
You're not gonna like this:

This is not by accident. It is not "too late" once they are elected. It is "too late" once you're in a capitalist systen.

Think about it. Capitalism itself is inherently oppressive towards the weak and the systematically marginalized: Have drug problem? Get fucked. Woman? Get fucked. Bad CV? Get fucked, etc.

Fascism is just the consequential continuation of this system in times of crisis.

Thats why fascism is called the "violent arm of national capital".

@c_9 Sounds like Survivorship bias tbh. And I hope I am right. Basically if fascism doesn't survive people won't call it fascism because it never got too that stage. So only the moments when it does evolve into fascism it gets noted as fascism.
@MisterMaker @c_9 in this case, pretty sure we already elected the fascist. Very concerned there may not be another democratic election.
@c_9 Crush them like they’re Lapuan Liike!

@c_9

That's what I've been thinking this year. You're not going to vote away the fascists, because some will still remain even in a minority. As long as they do, they can always come back.

@c_9

I think we need to organize, mobilize, protest and occupy the streets to get rid of fascists.

Then more activist action when that isn't enough.

I think the time has passed for us to point out their hypocrisy. We've been doing it about #MAGA for 10 years now. They revel in how it annoys us. They think we're cucks.

We know they're irrational. They don't care. They don't think like us. Get. In. The. Streets.

#cdnpoli #canada #mexico #fascism #antifa #elbowsup

@c_9 I’ve struggled to say to my rep & others that there is no democratic solution to this fascist takeover.
Everyone against it needs to be balls out against it, loud and proud!
I like what Gavin Newsome is doing

@c_9 Counterpoint: There is NO country with more than 50 years of continuous liberal democracy that went fully back into authoritarianism.

Countries that had long democratic traditions (say, the UK, US, Nordics) have proven extremely resilient. Most collapses happened in democracies with less than ~40 years of experience.

If that's what is happening to USA, it'll be the first one, ever.

@rimu @c_9 when's the US had this 50 years of ‘liberal democracy’ then?