Hendrik Buschmeier
Molly Whitethe betting platforms can't open markets on Trump's death for obvious reasons, but Kalshi just so happened to open up a "Trump out as President" market on Saturday
Unlike Polymarket, on Kalshi these markets do not resolve to "yes" if the person in question dies (they settle at the last traded price). I suspect many bettors don't read the fine print, though.
Polymarket opened their own "Trump out as president" market on September 1. unlike Kalshi, this resolves to "yes" if he dies
Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to BOTH Kalshi and Polymarket, btw
(this is deeply weird for all of the many reasons having Don Jr. as an adviser is deeply weird, AND also because the companies are the two major competitors in the prediction markets space)
Chester Wisniewski šØš¦@molly0xfff Unless the question is "How to be a nepo shitbag?" there aren't many reasons to have Don Jr. advise you.
Chuckles@chetwisniewski @molly0xfff "Nepo Shitbag" is sung to the tune as "Teenage Dirtbag"
TinDrum@chetwisniewski @molly0xfff advise your business you're off the radar for some arbitrary regulation/investigation/audit in exchange for a stipend
@oscarjiminy @chetwisniewski Trump's nominee for Chair of the CFTC (the primary regulator of predictions markets) is also a Kalshi shareholder and board member, so they're really covering their bases š
Luka Rubinjoni@molly0xfff "prediction markets", lol
AaronThey aren't perfect, but there is research to support their relative accuracy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market#Accuracy
It makes sense, when you consider the concept of "ensemble learning" from machine learning. Errors and biases tend to average out.
@rubinjoni @molly0xfff No argument with that
@rubinjoni @molly0xfff It's just that the gamblers' bad habits are being used for prediction
Avery 
@hosford42 @rubinjoni @molly0xfff the number of real-world tests seems pretty small. I made easy money on a prediction market in 2024 by betting it would be the hottest year ever, which was something easily predictable if you had been seen the news about sulphur dioxide
@avery @rubinjoni @molly0xfff Yeah, there's also the consideration that making it about gambling, as opposed to using a very specific structure for the question, doesn't seem to improve accuracy. There are other ways to get people to be accurate, in other words. Gambling is more of a motive to participate than an actual source of accuracy, I think.
My personal interest in it isn't in the gambling side of it so much as the adaptation of machine learning techniques to effectively coordinate human decision making. I think it's a fun idea.
Darryl RammWondering how many pretzels W. left under sofa cushions. Reach down, feel, they are free...
Darren du Nord@molly0xfff I might want to take a piece of that bet. He sure looks like death warmed over these days.
bignoseOther Kalshi markets (e.g. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner) show a chart-over-time that apparently doesn't have an arbitrary ceiling below 100%.
My question is, why does the ākxtrumpoutā chart show an apparent ceiling at 10%, well below the full 100% range?
@bignose it's a combination of the fact that these markets trade at 1Ā¢ increments, and the fairly low trading volume early on in new markets. they usually smooth out once volume picks up
James Henstridge@molly0xfff It looks like they also say they can pick whatever split they want if they decide the last traded price does not "represent a fair settlement value".
@jamesh yeah these betting markets are basically all Calvinball
Why's it appear to have a ceiling of 10% even though it āwants toā push higher than that?
(Do I need to learn what this Kalshi thing is to answer that)
CyberFrog@molly0xfff "for obvious reasons"?
as somebody who doesn't particularly pay close attention to these kinds of betting markets, I was under the impression that they operate outside US jurisdiction and typically have an "anything goes" policy on which markets can open
as somebody who doesn't particularly pay close attention to these kinds of betting markets, I was under the impression that they operate outside US jurisdiction and typically have an "anything goes" policy on which markets can open
@froge Kalshi operates in the US and is at least nominally regulated by the CFTC (or what's left of it)
@molly0xfff ah makes sense, thanks
Flaming Cheeto
Claudius@molly0xfff as someone not familiar with the betting market: what are the obvious reasons?
If it's "basic human decency" I could understand, but in this market I don't think they usually care much about that?
ikesau@claudius @molly0xfff you accidentally create an assassination market if you allow people to bet money on when people will die
@ikesau @molly0xfff I understand that, but I also don't believe that betting platforms care all that much what their effect on the rest of the world is.
That's why I wondered.
@claudius @ikesau predictions markets are prohibited from offering assassination markets
(then again, they're prohibited from offering "gaming" markets too, so perhaps my "obviously" was a bit too old fashioned)
@molly0xfff @ikesau oh, good thing there is a law against it.
But at the same time: it's really fucked up what kind of stuff we apparently need to put into law.
shadows@molly0xfff this entire timeline is ridiculous. But, also, thereās something deeply disturbing about a sitting president thatās possibly close to death and has recently expressed concern that he might not get into heaven. Especially when that president is someone that obviously hasnāt cared until now.
dummzeuch@molly0xfff even if Trump dies in the near future, you will get Vance as the new POTUS and I don't think he will be any better. But just maybe it will be easier to oust Vance than it is to oust Trump.
@dummzeuch @molly0xfff My thought as well: They don't worship Vance as some kind of deity like they do Trump. They might follow him, but they won't follow him *religiously*.
JĆ¼rgen HubertVance does not command their fear the way Trump does.
Neil Brutalist@molly0xfff is that because itās a crime to imagine the death of the monarch?