Molly Whitethe betting platforms can't open markets on Trump's death for obvious reasons, but Kalshi just so happened to open up a "Trump out as President" market on Saturday
Unlike Polymarket, on Kalshi these markets do not resolve to "yes" if the person in question dies (they settle at the last traded price). I suspect many bettors don't read the fine print, though.
James Henstridge@molly0xfff It looks like they also say they can pick whatever split they want if they decide the last traded price does not "represent a fair settlement value".
@jamesh yeah these betting markets are basically all Calvinball
