Molly Whitethe betting platforms can't open markets on Trump's death for obvious reasons, but Kalshi just so happened to open up a "Trump out as President" market on Saturday
Unlike Polymarket, on Kalshi these markets do not resolve to "yes" if the person in question dies (they settle at the last traded price). I suspect many bettors don't read the fine print, though.
bignoseOther Kalshi markets (e.g. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner) show a chart-over-time that apparently doesn't have an arbitrary ceiling below 100%.
My question is, why does the ‘kxtrumpout’ chart show an apparent ceiling at 10%, well below the full 100% range?
@bignose it's a combination of the fact that these markets trade at 1¢ increments, and the fairly low trading volume early on in new markets. they usually smooth out once volume picks up