Molly Whitethe betting platforms can't open markets on Trump's death for obvious reasons, but Kalshi just so happened to open up a "Trump out as President" market on Saturday
Unlike Polymarket, on Kalshi these markets do not resolve to "yes" if the person in question dies (they settle at the last traded price). I suspect many bettors don't read the fine print, though.
Polymarket opened their own "Trump out as president" market on September 1. unlike Kalshi, this resolves to "yes" if he dies
Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to BOTH Kalshi and Polymarket, btw
(this is deeply weird for all of the many reasons having Don Jr. as an adviser is deeply weird, AND also because the companies are the two major competitors in the prediction markets space)
Chester Wisniewski 🇨🇦@molly0xfff Unless the question is "How to be a nepo shitbag?" there aren't many reasons to have Don Jr. advise you.
TinDrum@chetwisniewski @molly0xfff advise your business you're off the radar for some arbitrary regulation/investigation/audit in exchange for a stipend
@oscarjiminy @chetwisniewski Trump's nominee for Chair of the CFTC (the primary regulator of predictions markets) is also a Kalshi shareholder and board member, so they're really covering their bases 🙃