#Somalia: Perspectives for 2025
- Somalia and #Ethiopia have begun to implement the Ankara declaration by restoring ties. The MoU with #Somaliland is not cancelled however - although under review by Somaliland’s leadership. #Eritrea is hostile to this détente but may be appeased. The question of Ethiopian sea access and other points of contention remain open.
- #Somalia has taken her seat at the #UN Security Council on 1 Jan. She will coordinate with other African and Carribbean countries. She is also expected to firmly support #Palestine in the context of the current war.
- #AlShabaab is unlikely to be better contained in 2025 despite or because of the détente with #Ethiopia, but also because of continued multiple internal conflicts and interclanic strife, a likely #US withdrawal and the reduced size of the #AU mission.
- Conflicts between Mogadiscio and #Jubaland and Southwest are currently mediated respectively by #Kenya and #Turkey. The rift is deepening with #Puntland however, as the region introduced its own currency. Meanwhile, Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud hopes to end a conflict between the region of #Hirshabelle and its #Hiraan district.
- Insurgencies in #Awdal and #SSCKhatumo are expected to find continued support in #Puntland, #Somalia and #Djibouti.
- Local and regional #elections are expected to be held after the one person, one vote principle, except in #Jubaland and #Puntland. Some of these, including in the Southwest, could be opportunities for further intra-Somali conflicts.
- #Russia will continue to try to get a footing in #Somalia, but at a price which the latter is unlikely to agree to, that is the presence of #AfricaCorps (ex #Wagner).
Mathieu Gotteland