- Insurgencies in #Awdal and #SSCKhatumo are expected to find continued support in #Puntland, #Somalia and #Djibouti.

#Somaliland

The spat has had other negative consequences beyond open hostility and Ethiopian continued dual track diplomacy, especially on the war on #AlShabaab as well as on #Somaliland itself.

While #Ethiopia has been supporting Somaliland's depleted military, #SSCKhatumo, now formally reunited with #Somalia and supported by #Puntland, is still keeping Somaliland forces at bay, with clashes now extending into Sanaag. SSC administration already controls most of their claimed area in Sool and Cayn.

This has already led to the rekindling of the #SSCKhatumo conflict and the birth of an #Awdal insurgency in #Somaliland, a proxy war between Somaliland and #Djibouti, and the looming threat of an Ethiopian-Egyptian proxy war in #Somalia. Al #Shabaab (AS) has already largely benefitted from the spat and seems to have formed close ties with the #Houthis.

#Egypt #Yemen #Ethiopia

So far, it can be said to have failed on all accounts. #Ethiopia still exercizes caution as to military support and official recognition. A new secessionist movement appeared in the West, in relation with the project of an Ethiopian naval base. The MoU triggered a proxy war with former ally #Djibouti, which now supports both #SSCKhatumo and #Awdal secessionists. Khatumo forces recently launched a raid on Erigavo, in #Sanaag, contesting Somaliland’s continued control of its coastline.

#Somalia

#Somaliland seeked to exert effective control over her claimed territory and borders, rebuild its army, defeat #SSCKhatumo and have her independence recognized by a UN member. A stake in Ethiopia Airlines was here to sweeten the deal.

#Ethiopia #Somalia

For #Somaliland, the signing of a MoU with #Ethiopia was supposed to be a bold stroke to get out of a difficult situation. Despite official recognition by #Taiwan and informal support from #Djibouti and the #UAE, matters of domestic policy had led to the utter fragilization of both the president and de facto state, including through the secession of #SSCKhatumo in the East (supported by #Puntland).

#Somalia

The Somali response had initially been exceptionally firm and her position strong on all accounts. #Somaliland was uniquely weakened to begin with, including on account of #SSCKhatumo’s secession last August. The MoU also weakened #Awdal’s loyalty. All of #Somalia’s partners and major international organizations sided with Mogadiscio, including #Ethiopia’s all-weather partner #China. Ethiopia seemed to hesitate.

#Somaliland