Show threadMathieu GottelandMar 6

Besides the ever growing Shabaab threat, conflicts have erupted with #Jubaland and #Puntland. They are far from resolved.

Concerns touch the centralization and presidentialization of power, in a country scarred by the Barre dictatorship, and the extension of MP and presidential terms, pushing back #elections by a full year.

#Somalia #Africa #terrorism

Show threadMathieu GottelandJan 27

Reinforced unionist, anti-#Israel sentiment also lessens #Puntland ’s leverage against Mogadiscio, which partly explains leader/president Deni’s silence. This is also the case for #Jubaland. It might therefore weaken their opposition to a national compromise on the constitution and elections to be held in 2026.

#Somalia

Show threadMathieu GottelandJan 27
including the control of major logistics hub — including Sokhna, Berbera (#Somaliland), Bosaso (#Puntland), Dar es Salaam & Maputo — and the building of a network of proxies, especially in North & East Africa — including in #Libya (#LNA), #Egypt, #Chad, #Sudan (#RSF), #SouthSudan, #Ethiopia, #Somalia (including #Puntland and #Jubaland) and Somaliland, and as well obviously as nearby #Yemen (#STC).
Show threadMathieu GottelandJan 25
Theoretically, local and parliamentary OPOV #elections should be held in the first half of 2026, following Mogadiscio’s example in December. Meanwhile the first direct universal suffrage presidential elections in #Somalia’s history should be also held shortly, to avert a very likely legitimacy crisis. The current government’s mandate is set to end by May 2026. #Jubaland and #Puntland remain opposed in principle.
Show threadMathieu GottelandJan 25

International pressure has been mounting to end the Federal-#Jubaland conflict (January 2026), which has benefitted AS all through 2025. Kenyan mediation has proven ineffectual so far, however. It is unlikely this will bear fruits among a break with the #UAE on the federal level and an upcoming big election year.

#Somalia #Kenya

Show threadMathieu GottelandJan 22
Clashes have occurred both in Baardhere (February) and Beled Hawo (April-July), #Jubaland forces then fleeing to Kenyan territory (August), in a reverse of the Raskamboni episode. A mediation by #Kenya has failed (October), and could damage otherwise healthy bilateral relations. The federal government retaliated by installing a rival regional government in Garbahaarey (October). #Somalia
Show threadMathieu GottelandJan 22
AS naturally also benefitted from a continued conflict between Hiraan and #Hirshabelle, as well as between the federal state and #Jubaland, a client region of #Ethiopia, #Kenya and the #UAE, despite last year’s Raskamboni fiasco (December 2024). To concerns over the Ethiopian crisis, the constitutional reform, reelection of #Jubaland leader/president Madobe, is indeed added a civil #war for the control of Gedo.
Show threadMathieu GottelandJan 22
A #Turkey mediated détente with #Ethiopia has led to the restoration of diplomatic relations in January, as well as a visit to Mogadishu of Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed (February). Ethiopia therefore continues to contribute to #Somalia’s security, which was an important demand by client regions #Puntland, #Jubaland and Southwest. This should not be understood as a return to the statu quo ante however, and trust remains minimal.
Mathieu GottelandJan 14

#Somalia breaks with the #UAE

This is huge, but has been in the making for a while now. This is clearly linked to UAE's role in #Somaliland, #Puntland and #Jubaland, where DP World will continue its operations, and probably in part with #Israel 's recognition of Somaliland. (Although the UAE still officially support the One Somalia Policy)

https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/somalia-suspends-port-defense-and-security-deals-with-uae

Somalia suspends port, defense and security deals with UAE

Garowe Online
Mathieu GottelandDec 9

#Jubaland "secedes" from #Somalia

21 months after #Puntland, Jubaland follows the same path by acting as an independent state and ceasing to recognize federal institutions.

This comes after a protracted conflict with Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud over the constitution, elections, and deployment of federal troops in the state.

Relations between Mogadishu and Southwest state likewise remain strained.

https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/somalia-jubaland-rebrands-as-government-in-bold-challenge-to-mogadishu-based-fgs

Somalia: Jubaland Rebrands as Government in Bold Challenge to Mogadishu-based FGS

Garowe Online