Saxafi Media6d ago

Multi-phase strategy aimed at reshaping #Somalia's political & expanding central authority is fueling debate across #HornOfAfrica. The allegations raise questions about #Federalism, regional stability, foreign influence, #RedSeaSecurity & the future balance of power involving #Somaliland, #Puntland, #Jubaland, #Ethiopia, #Kenya, #Turkey, #Qatar & #Egypt. #Geopolitics #RegionalSecurity #EastAfrica

https://saxafimedia.com/strategic-plan-reshape-somalia-horn-underway/

Strategic Plan To Reshape Somalia And The Horn Of Africa Is Already Underway | Saxafi Media

A reported strategic plan aimed at reshaping Somalia's political structure and altering the balance of power in the Horn of Africa has raised questions about federalism, regional security, external influence, and competition for control of key Red Sea and Gulf of Aden maritime corridors

SaxafiMedia
KrakenMay 24

🟡 Political Crisis | 7/10
🇸🇴

Puntland no longer recognizes Somali president — risk of state fragmentation
Puntland president Said Abdullahi Deni announced he no longer recognizes Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as legitimate leader, accusing him of abusing presidential power.

#OSINT #NewsGroup #Somalia #Puntland #PoliticalCrisis

Saxafi MediaApr 23

After #Israel’s recognition of #Somaliland, @HassanSMohamud is moving to consolidate power in #Mogadishu—reshaping #Somalia’s FS as #Puntland & #Jubaland strengthen ties with regional powers & global actors hedge their bets ahead of the #2026Elections.

https://saxafimedia.com/somalia-tightens-grip-israel-recognizes-somaliland/

Somalia’s President Tightens Grip After Israel Recognizes Somaliland | Saxafi Media

Following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is accelerating centralization efforts in Somalia, as Puntland and Jubaland deepen regional alliances and global powers adopt dual-track strategies.

SaxafiMedia
Show threadMathieu GottelandApr 17

Instead, Irro's conciliatory policy style has allowed him to pacify Sanaag (claimed by SSC) and to explore realistic paths towards peace with the #Dhulbahante and re-engage #Puntland.

#Somalia #Somaliland #Africa

Show threadEvan Centanni (PolGeoNow)Apr 12

Notice the #Puntland soldiers wearing prominent #Somalia flag patches. Despite not recognizing the federal govt in Mogadishu, Puntland still considers itself proudly part of Somalia. Last year we debunked misconceptions that it had declared #independence: https://www.polgeonow.com/2025/06/puntland-independence-declaration-somalia.html

@geography @geopolitics @internationalrelations

Somalia Supplement: Did Puntland Declare Independence?

Puntland state may act like an independent country, but claims that it declared independence in 2024 are misleading.

Show threadEvan Centanni (PolGeoNow)Apr 12

In report's aerial shots, Sheebaab village is recognizable from satellite imagery, despite video's subtitles transcribing it incorrectly as "Sheebaad".

#geolocation #OSINT #Somalia #Puntland @geography @geopolitics @internationalrelations

Evan Centanni (PolGeoNow)Apr 12

Good video reporting from frontlines of still-ongoing #Puntland vs. #ISIS war in northern #Somalia by @bastien_rnl, @willswanson, and @ARTEfr for @France24_en. Seemingly shot last Nov - reporters visited ISIS-Somalia's former "so-called capital", Sheebaab village in Almiskat Mts.

https://www.france24.com/en/somalia-islamic-state-group-new-front-line-africa

#geography #geopolitics #HornOfAfrica #journalism #armedconflict #ISIL #war #GulfOfAden #security #worldnews #Africa @geography @geopolitics @internationalrelations

Reporters - Somalia, the Islamic State group's new front line in Africa

Jihadists from the Islamic State (IS) group have established a stronghold in Somalia’s Puntland region, operating largely undisturbed across a vast mountainous area after setbacks in Iraq and Syria and using it as a base for wider operations in Africa and beyond. Local authorities have launched a major offensive, driving fighters from villages into cave positions amid ongoing clashes and mounting casualties, in a campaign officials say is crucial to restoring stability in Somalia and countering a broader global security threat. A report by Bastien Renouil, Will Swanson and ARTE. 

FRANCE 24
Show threadMathieu GottelandMar 6

Besides the ever growing Shabaab threat, conflicts have erupted with #Jubaland and #Puntland. They are far from resolved.

Concerns touch the centralization and presidentialization of power, in a country scarred by the Barre dictatorship, and the extension of MP and presidential terms, pushing back #elections by a full year.

#Somalia #Africa #terrorism

Show threadMathieu GottelandMar 4

Possible but less likely targets — albeit still uncomfortably close — include #Ethiopia and #Puntland, close #UAE allies/proxies, while the first has also recently demonstrated her closeness to #Israel.

Besides the economic fallout or a redo of the #RedSea crisis, the rapid escalation in the #US Israel #Iran war means #Africa risks becoming a direct target, depending on if and when the #Houthis might enter the #war.

#Yemen

Show threadMathieu GottelandFeb 8

- Police entered the federal parliament in 2018, 2025. A famous stand off around the extension of former president of #Somalia Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed a.k.a. Farmaajo has led to armed clashes in 2021.

- #Puntland ’s current president Said Abdullahi Deni also remained in power thanks to the intervention of the PMPF in Puntland’s parliament in 2023.

#coup