Mathieu GottelandBesides the ever growing Shabaab threat, conflicts have erupted with #Jubaland and #Puntland. They are far from resolved.
Concerns touch the centralization and presidentialization of power, in a country scarred by the Barre dictatorship, and the extension of MP and presidential terms, pushing back #elections by a full year.
Possible but less likely targets — albeit still uncomfortably close — include #Ethiopia and #Puntland, close #UAE allies/proxies, while the first has also recently demonstrated her closeness to #Israel.
Besides the economic fallout or a redo of the #RedSea crisis, the rapid escalation in the #US Israel #Iran war means #Africa risks becoming a direct target, depending on if and when the #Houthis might enter the #war.
- Police entered the federal parliament in 2018, 2025. A famous stand off around the extension of former president of #Somalia Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed a.k.a. Farmaajo has led to armed clashes in 2021.
- #Puntland ’s current president Said Abdullahi Deni also remained in power thanks to the intervention of the PMPF in Puntland’s parliament in 2023.
Reinforced unionist, anti-#Israel sentiment also lessens #Puntland ’s leverage against Mogadiscio, which partly explains leader/president Deni’s silence. This is also the case for #Jubaland. It might therefore weaken their opposition to a national compromise on the constitution and elections to be held in 2026.
- The way forward -
Meanwhile, #Puntland is caught between a rock and a hard place. A #UAE client state, it has long supported #SSC-Khatumo against #Somaliland, but its hopes of annexing the region have been thwarted by that region becoming the Northeast federal state.
including the control of major logistics hub — including Sokhna, Berbera (#Somaliland), Bosaso (#Puntland), Dar es Salaam & Maputo — and the building of a network of proxies, especially in North & East Africa — including in #Libya (#LNA), #Egypt, #Chad, #Sudan (#RSF), #SouthSudan, #Ethiopia, #Somalia (including #Puntland and #Jubaland) and Somaliland, and as well obviously as nearby #Yemen (#STC).
Both #US and #Israel have prospected a number of countries throughout 2025, most of which are African, with this very purpose. Those include, #Somalia, #Puntland and #Somaliland. All of them have either denied these reports or walked back their support, including Somaliland after Israel’s recognition. The US now seem to have rolled back that policy as well.
Theoretically, local and parliamentary OPOV #elections should be held in the first half of 2026, following Mogadiscio’s example in December. Meanwhile the first direct universal suffrage presidential elections in #Somalia’s history should be also held shortly, to avert a very likely legitimacy crisis. The current government’s mandate is set to end by May 2026. #Jubaland and #Puntland remain opposed in principle.
The first #US strikes of the year were in #Puntland, where intensified #IslamicState activity has led to a major offensive involving the PMPF, US and #UAE (January-March). This Operation Hilaac has significantly degraded #IS capabilities in the Bari region. Conversely, there has been a flare up in #piracy from the coast of Puntland since October.
This has in turn allowed for the unionist #Dhulbahante militia to rejoin #Somalia as the “Northeast” state (July). Besides a baroque offer for control of Berbera port and airport (in #Somaliland), Bosaso port (in #Puntland) and Baledogle airbase (in #Hirshabelle), formulated by president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in March, the integration of #SSC-Khatumo as “Northeast” allowed him to invite #US companies to drill #oil in the area.