SteffkaApr 12, 2024
Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf
Is the #AMOC approaching a tipping point?
Here's my take after researching this topic for over 30 years.
Open access, peer-reviewed, in full colour & understandable for non-experts.
https://tos.org/oceanography/article/is-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-approaching-a-tipping-point
Apr 11, 2024 at 3:17pmWeb
Show threadProf. Stefan RahmstorfApr 11, 2024

For a very brief summary of key points in English:

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/overview-article-the-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-as-a-tipping-point

In German:

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/de/aktuelles/nachrichten/ueberblicksartikel-die-atlantische-umwaelzstroemung-als-kipppunkt

Various shorter articles are found on Realclimate.org and https://scilogs.spektrum.de/klimalounge if you search there for AMOC.

Overview article - Is the Atlantic Overturning Circulation Approaching a Tipping Point?

11.04.2024 - Studies show that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has already weakened as a result of anthropogenic climate change and is possible moving towards a tipping point. This current has a significant influence on climate, particularly in Europe. Stefan Rahmstorf, head of the Earth System Analysis research department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), outlines the current state of research in a new overview article in the scientific journal Oceanography.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Show threadStmpAch 🏳️‍🌈 🇬🇱 🇺🇦Apr 11, 2024

@rahmstorf
Im deutschen Artikel https://www.pik-potsdam.de/de/aktuelles/nachrichten/ueberblicksartikel-die-atlantische-umwaelzstroemung-als-kipppunkt enthält unten der Anker-Tag (Link) zum Aufsatz auch noch die Überschrift:

<a href="https://www.pik-potsdam.de/Weblink%20zum%20Aufsatz:%20https:/doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2024.501">https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2024.501</a>

Überblicksartikel: Nähert sich die atlantische Umwälzströmung einem Kipppunkt?

11.04.2024 - Studien zeigen, dass sich die atlantische Umwälzströmung (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, AMOC) durch den menschengemachten Klimawandel bereits abschwächt hat und womöglich auf einen Kipppunkt zusteuert. Diese Strömung prägt maßgeblich das Klima vor allem in Europa. Den aktuellen Stand der Forschung diskutiert Stefan Rahmstorf, Leiter der Forschungsabteilung Erdsystemanalyse am Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) jetzt in einem neuen Überblicksartikel in der Fachzeitschrift Oceanography.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Show threadLyle Solla-YatesApr 11, 2024
@rahmstorf your English summary link appears to be a blank template to me in the US
Show threadJasper 🍉Apr 11, 2024
@rahmstorf that page doesn't work for me at all?(firefox 117.0, disabled addons) Archive.org might look the same for you.. https://web.archive.org/web/20240411232717/https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/overview-article-the-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-as-a-tipping-point
Overview article - Is the Atlantic Overturning Circulation Approaching a Tipping Point?

04/11/2024 - Studies show that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has already weakened as a result of anthropogenic climate change and is possible moving towards a tipping point. This current has a significant influence on climate, particularly in Europe. Stefan Rahmstorf, head of the Earth System Analysis research department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), outlines the current state of research in a new overview article in the scientific journal Oceanography.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Show threadTimo GalichApr 12, 2024
@rahmstorf Guten Tag Herr Rahmstorf, der Link zum deutschsprachigen Artikel ist leider fehlerhaft. Vielen Dank für ihre Arbeit.
Show threadMike TorrApr 12, 2024
@rahmstorf I've been wondering when this issue would become prominent in the news! I moved from England to Scotland in 2021, and so far I've enjoyed getting away from the stupidly hot summers. Maybe I should have been careful what I wished for.
Show threadSupergrobiApr 12, 2024
@rahmstorf Hallo Herr Rahmstorf, der englische Overview-Artikel ist leider leer, die deutsche Version ist in Ordnung
Show threadMinimaliste13Apr 11, 2024
@rahmstorf ⬆️ Article passionnant et très pédagogique. Aussi : terrifiant.
Show threadAndrewApr 11, 2024

@rahmstorf
"A full AMOC collapse would be a massive, planetary-scale disaster. We really want to prevent this from happening."

I don't think you can be any more explicit than that for policymakers

Show threadnotsoloudApr 11, 2024

@Shivviness
The more limited subpolar gyre collapse "typically happens as soon as the year 2040 and for moderate emission scenarios...[it] will shift tropical rainfall belts"

"full shutdown of the AMOC would have truly devastating consequences for humanity"
“strong reduction of crop yield and pasture” in Europe, "weakening of the African and Asian monsoons", likely ecosystem collapse in the northern Atlantic"

@rahmstorf

Show threadAlien software, human hardwareApr 12, 2024
@Shivviness @rahmstorf unfortunately you do need to be more explicit: "your houses and other properties in Europe will massively depreciate in value, and inflation and political instability will greatly devalue your monetary assets."
There, that should be clear enough.
Show threadFREE🇵🇸PALESTINE, Says @SineApr 11, 2024
@rahmstorf yes....get your snowshoes ready....
Show threadGezThePezApr 11, 2024
@rahmstorf dennis quaid was right
Show threadEric SchutteApr 11, 2024
@rahmstorf For those who think science is just an opinion and who believe there are many thruths; don’t read this, it bullocks and part of some “big plan” of the fakes and “deep state”.
For those who take science serious, please read this.
If it puzzles you, read the implications 👇🏼
Show threadzillaApr 11, 2024
@rahmstorf Thank you professor this is most insightful and detailed.
Show threadMark BurtonApr 11, 2024
@rahmstorf
A scenario that forms the basis for Scottish writer Peter May's dystopian thriller "A Winter Grave".
Worth seeking out.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/67998095-a-winter-grave
A Winter Grave

It is the year 2051. Warnings of climate catastrophe ha…

Goodreads
Show threadDavid HoApr 11, 2024
@rahmstorf I wanna know about the bucket sea-gauge
Show threadHans-Cees 🍋🌲🦔🦦🐝🦋🐛🚅🇸🇳🇵🇾🇹🇬🇹🇲Apr 11, 2024
@davidho @rahmstorf you Just go and read the work of David Ho first, come on!😎
Show threadWarren Currie 🦠🦐Apr 11, 2024
@davidho @rahmstorf
Bucket Sea Gage
https://www.jstor.org/stable/105112?seq=14
Show threadWarren Currie 🦠🦐Apr 11, 2024

@davidho @rahmstorf

Stephen Hales (1677–1761) June 8, 1751, Philosophical Transactions

The sea-gage “was a common household pail or bucket, with two heads in it; which heads had each a round hole in the middle, near four inches diameter, which were cover'd with valves which open'd upwards; and that they might both open and shut together.” The water temperature was measured on board with a mercury thermometer.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/physical-geography

Show threadCarmen ZedlerApr 11, 2024
@rahmstorf wenn #Wissing @fdp nur Trotz kann: ja, bitte Auto 🚗 Fahrverbot am Wochenende! #tempolimit #klimakatastrophe #klimaschutz #klimaschutzziele #ampel #fdp #kindergarten #verkehrspolitik #co2 #menschenrechte #deutschland #Politikversagen
Show threadSpaceLifeFormApr 11, 2024

@rahmstorf

I am pretty sure things started changing (besides Big Oil), was when the dams were built on the Missouri River.

Show threadSane ThinkerApr 12, 2024
@rahmstorf This is not to be rude, professor, but for the most part scientists aren't friendly writers for the public. Facts need to be turned into emotion to spur action. I have been trying to bridge that gap for close to three years now. For the most part, in spite of good intentions, you need good writers to communicate your messages.
Show threadTwee JackApr 29, 2024
@gdeihl @rahmstorf
This may be true, Sane Thinker, but it is not the job of the scientist to find those good writers. Indeed it is not even required that the scientists convey their science in lay-speak, in so doing the professor has already gone above and beyond.

Thank you professor for this.
Show threadsleepfreeparentApr 13, 2024

@rahmstorf so, if we combine this already bleak outlook with Astyk's law, total AMOC shutdown seems incredibly imminent...

"Astyk's law says that every time someone predicts something at 2050 or before, subtract ten years, and you'll be in the right ballpark. Anytime someone predicts something will happen between 2050 and 2100, subtract 30 years."

Show threadMichaelApr 29, 2024
@rahmstorf A question, sorry. The AMOC moves heat at the rate of 1 petawatt … per what time unit please?
Show threadStephen TApr 29, 2024
@garrattguy Watts are joules per second, so it’s already a rate. (I think!)
Show threadMichaelApr 29, 2024
@stephent Yes. It gets confusing. The wikipedia entry for “watt” is informative. Also “peta” has a heat flux definition for geographic heat transfer from equator to poles. Didn’t know that.