It's not that people aren't sticking around Mastodon.

There's more active users now than there were in September. Back then, there were only ~50,000 active users per month on mastodon.social.

It's that a certain segment of registrations were done either in protest, or as a Plan "B" if the Plan "A" (Twitter continues to be a going concern) fails.

That said, if Mastodon is seen merely as a Twitter alternative it will fail.

It's not a Twitter alternative.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2023/jan/08/elon-musk-drove-more-than-a-million-people-to-mastodon-but-many-arent-sticking-around

Elon Musk drove more than a million people to Mastodon – but many aren’t sticking around

More than 130,000 people were joining the new independent social media network a day in November. So why hasn’t it taken off?

The Guardian

I do believe Twitter is dying.

It's just that it takes a long time for social networks to die.

The first step in killing a social network is killing the culture around it.

Twitter's culture is still alive, but it has cancer.

Since October, the most exciting thing about Mastodon is that the tech has now been validated.

App developers are now actively developing apps for Mastodon and the Fediverse.

Better apps are coming. And more too.

Even designers are getting excited about custom CSS themes.

Mastodon is currently adding ~1 million new users per month.

Sign ups might slow down.

But that means by end of 2023, there will likely be 15-20 million Mastodon users.

This isn't even counting the rest of the Fediverse.

Social networks are not just about how many people use it, but *who* uses it.

Part of Twitter's appeal was that you could directly talk to CEOs, politicians, and celebrities.

Twitter has always been smaller than Facebook, but it was more impactful on a per capita basis because of this.

What I'm noticing is that people who actively build technology have moved en masse to the Fediverse—that has repercussions.

What journalists don't understand:

People who make tech no longer use Twitter because Twitter has entirely alienated developers.

Meanwhile, Mastodon and the Fediverse is built on the promise of "API first".

Who makes innovations? Developers.

Who makes the engine that powers culture? Developers.

Who has Elon Musk made bitter enemies with? Developers.

Last week, I made a custom CSS theme for Mastodon.

Can you make a custom CSS theme for Twitter? Not on your life!

This might seem small if you're not a developer. But it's actually a massive difference—and why Mastodon and the Fediverse have massive momentum right now.

@atomicpoet @atomicpoet

I'm glad to read this. I have been saying this since I found Mastodon. We need to treat this environment as the unique system it is and not just a Twitter-clone. If that doesn't happen - this environment will collapse in on itself.

There are some pretty large groups that exist here. I think it could survive if a new Twitter does crop up and the audiences shift. Right now, in my opinion, people are settling in and beginning to 'set up shop'.

As you mentioned - Developers will shift the conversation in a big way. Becoming intuitive and useful at a mass scale, and having the tech stack to back it up, will cause this surge to gain even more speed.

@mentallyalex @atomicpoet

I think that the #fediverse has already reached a critical mass for sustainability, which could still have a measurable impact on the world even if the others don't come.

"The #Resistance will be #Federated"

Make Punching Nazis Cool Again
#MPNCA

#Resilience is an Act of Resistance

Who knows and who cares which billionaire the masses will flock to next.

#Antifa #sustainability #permaculture #Pollinators

@SrRochardBunson

I don't disbelieve that Mastodon was heavily impacted across a vast majority of the servers during the twitter surges. I'm just not 100% sure how sticky they will be now that they are here.

I think it's important and historical to be honest. Giant surges of people suddenly fled an environment that up until then was pretty damn stable and reliable. Things at that scale don't fail in such a spectacular fashion that often. People that live inside an ecosystem won't leave it while it feeds them steadily.

@atomicpoet

@SrRochardBunson
Honestly, we should care which billionaire gains huge amounts of social and political power by having the masses adopt their influence machines. We should also be actively trying to ensure the answer is predictable, and that it's "None of them".

Where the masses go affects all of us.
@mentallyalex @atomicpoet
@atomicpoet _I actually made a Twitter Tweaks style in the past. I don't know why I did it.

it was pain_
@atomicpoet Why did I look at this and think


Yea I can theme this

And then I did, for some reason
@atomicpoet How does one apply a custom CSS theme to Mastodon?
Neoflux: A Mastodon Theme - HedgeDoc

# Neoflux: A Mastodon Theme ### Here's how I'm making my first open source Mastodon theme Until t

@atomicpoet “The most important pre-requisite is to be an owner or admin of a Mastodon instance.” I was hoping it’d be something user-level. Oh well.
@atomicpoet I wonder if you can explaine this more, for ignorant people such as I. thanks!
@atomicpoet well, theme was actually first thing I did when registered last month 😀
@atomicpoet I know you're probably going to correct it but "butter enemies" is an awesome phrase (implies someone is sort of slimy and unctuous in an unhealthy way)
@atomicpoet I had a butter enemy once. They thought margarine is an acceptable alternative. We're not friends anymore
@olavf @atomicpoet I had a batter enemy once. They stole my pancake recipe and posted it online as their own and I've never forgiven them.
@andrewfeeney you should have released a blintz against their character.
@olavf I told them I wouldn't stand for this crepe.
@olavf @atomicpoet Why would you be. Such behaviour is beyond the pale.

@atomicpoet That combined with the fact that there have been massive layoffs happening all over the tech world....

Do you know what bored developers do when they aren't employed?

Well, they generally don't sit on the couch twiddling their thumbs looking for their next job to come around.

They usually get bored after a day or two and find some sort of programming project to get themselves hacking away on....

I would highly suspect the Fediverse is benefitting from that right now.

Cause that's the other thing about developers.... and in particular the open source ones.... part of how *they* socially network to get paying work is by writing code and socially participating in projects.

Fediverse projects ongoing and future are definitely benefitting from that, I'd say.

@atomicpoet,
Yep!
Innovators have departed #Twitter en masse.
The #Fediverse is a more exhilarating frontier than an obsolete #Web20 platform, period.
Most of the technical media should already be aware of this by now 😀

@atomicpoet

I feel like this series of questions is incomplete without one that prompts the reply:

"SpongeBob Squarepants!"

@atomicpoet @lightweight

Ballmer had it right all along:

Developers, Developers, Developers :-)