It's not that people aren't sticking around Mastodon.
There's more active users now than there were in September. Back then, there were only ~50,000 active users per month on mastodon.social.
It's that a certain segment of registrations were done either in protest, or as a Plan "B" if the Plan "A" (Twitter continues to be a going concern) fails.
That said, if Mastodon is seen merely as a Twitter alternative it will fail.
It's not a Twitter alternative.
I do believe Twitter is dying.
It's just that it takes a long time for social networks to die.
The first step in killing a social network is killing the culture around it.
Twitter's culture is still alive, but it has cancer.
Since October, the most exciting thing about Mastodon is that the tech has now been validated.
App developers are now actively developing apps for Mastodon and the Fediverse.
Better apps are coming. And more too.
Even designers are getting excited about custom CSS themes.
Mastodon is currently adding ~1 million new users per month.
Sign ups might slow down.
But that means by end of 2023, there will likely be 15-20 million Mastodon users.
This isn't even counting the rest of the Fediverse.
Social networks are not just about how many people use it, but *who* uses it.
Part of Twitter's appeal was that you could directly talk to CEOs, politicians, and celebrities.
Twitter has always been smaller than Facebook, but it was more impactful on a per capita basis because of this.
What I'm noticing is that people who actively build technology have moved en masse to the Fediverse—that has repercussions.
What journalists don't understand:
People who make tech no longer use Twitter because Twitter has entirely alienated developers.
Meanwhile, Mastodon and the Fediverse is built on the promise of "API first".
Who makes innovations? Developers.
Who makes the engine that powers culture? Developers.
Who has Elon Musk made bitter enemies with? Developers.
Last week, I made a custom CSS theme for Mastodon.
Can you make a custom CSS theme for Twitter? Not on your life!
This might seem small if you're not a developer. But it's actually a massive difference—and why Mastodon and the Fediverse have massive momentum right now.
I'm glad to read this. I have been saying this since I found Mastodon. We need to treat this environment as the unique system it is and not just a Twitter-clone. If that doesn't happen - this environment will collapse in on itself.
There are some pretty large groups that exist here. I think it could survive if a new Twitter does crop up and the audiences shift. Right now, in my opinion, people are settling in and beginning to 'set up shop'.
As you mentioned - Developers will shift the conversation in a big way. Becoming intuitive and useful at a mass scale, and having the tech stack to back it up, will cause this surge to gain even more speed.
I think that the #fediverse has already reached a critical mass for sustainability, which could still have a measurable impact on the world even if the others don't come.
"The #Resistance will be #Federated"
Make Punching Nazis Cool Again
#MPNCA
#Resilience is an Act of Resistance
Who knows and who cares which billionaire the masses will flock to next.
I don't disbelieve that Mastodon was heavily impacted across a vast majority of the servers during the twitter surges. I'm just not 100% sure how sticky they will be now that they are here.
I think it's important and historical to be honest. Giant surges of people suddenly fled an environment that up until then was pretty damn stable and reliable. Things at that scale don't fail in such a spectacular fashion that often. People that live inside an ecosystem won't leave it while it feeds them steadily.
Chris Trottier
Alex
Sir Rochard 'Dock' Bunson