It's not that people aren't sticking around Mastodon.
There's more active users now than there were in September. Back then, there were only ~50,000 active users per month on mastodon.social.
It's that a certain segment of registrations were done either in protest, or as a Plan "B" if the Plan "A" (Twitter continues to be a going concern) fails.
That said, if Mastodon is seen merely as a Twitter alternative it will fail.
It's not a Twitter alternative.
I do believe Twitter is dying.
It's just that it takes a long time for social networks to die.
The first step in killing a social network is killing the culture around it.
Twitter's culture is still alive, but it has cancer.
Since October, the most exciting thing about Mastodon is that the tech has now been validated.
App developers are now actively developing apps for Mastodon and the Fediverse.
Better apps are coming. And more too.
Even designers are getting excited about custom CSS themes.
Mastodon is currently adding ~1 million new users per month.
Sign ups might slow down.
But that means by end of 2023, there will likely be 15-20 million Mastodon users.
This isn't even counting the rest of the Fediverse.
Social networks are not just about how many people use it, but *who* uses it.
Part of Twitter's appeal was that you could directly talk to CEOs, politicians, and celebrities.
Twitter has always been smaller than Facebook, but it was more impactful on a per capita basis because of this.
What I'm noticing is that people who actively build technology have moved en masse to the Fediverse—that has repercussions.
What journalists don't understand:
People who make tech no longer use Twitter because Twitter has entirely alienated developers.
Meanwhile, Mastodon and the Fediverse is built on the promise of "API first".
Who makes innovations? Developers.
Who makes the engine that powers culture? Developers.
Who has Elon Musk made bitter enemies with? Developers.
Last week, I made a custom CSS theme for Mastodon.
Can you make a custom CSS theme for Twitter? Not on your life!
This might seem small if you're not a developer. But it's actually a massive difference—and why Mastodon and the Fediverse have massive momentum right now.
I'm glad to read this. I have been saying this since I found Mastodon. We need to treat this environment as the unique system it is and not just a Twitter-clone. If that doesn't happen - this environment will collapse in on itself.
There are some pretty large groups that exist here. I think it could survive if a new Twitter does crop up and the audiences shift. Right now, in my opinion, people are settling in and beginning to 'set up shop'.
As you mentioned - Developers will shift the conversation in a big way. Becoming intuitive and useful at a mass scale, and having the tech stack to back it up, will cause this surge to gain even more speed.
I think that the #fediverse has already reached a critical mass for sustainability, which could still have a measurable impact on the world even if the others don't come.
"The #Resistance will be #Federated"
Make Punching Nazis Cool Again
#MPNCA
#Resilience is an Act of Resistance
Who knows and who cares which billionaire the masses will flock to next.
I don't disbelieve that Mastodon was heavily impacted across a vast majority of the servers during the twitter surges. I'm just not 100% sure how sticky they will be now that they are here.
I think it's important and historical to be honest. Giant surges of people suddenly fled an environment that up until then was pretty damn stable and reliable. Things at that scale don't fail in such a spectacular fashion that often. People that live inside an ecosystem won't leave it while it feeds them steadily.
@SrRochardBunson @mentallyalex @atomicpoet
Sounds like the signature catchphrase of #johnmastodon
Hope you don't mind if I steal it. It's perfect for the spirit of Mastodon.
@ScriptorViator
Yeah, thats what the mandala tattoo #JohnMastodon has on his chest uses for the script. If you look closely it just the words
#TheResistanceWillBeFederated over and over in really tight space.
@Doreen32128 @mentallyalex @ScriptorViator @atomicpoet
"Make Punching Nazis Cool Again!
To #JohnMastodon!"
#BobMastodon
The #Resistance will be #Federated
#Resilience is an act of #Resistance
@atomicpoet That combined with the fact that there have been massive layoffs happening all over the tech world....
Do you know what bored developers do when they aren't employed?
Well, they generally don't sit on the couch twiddling their thumbs looking for their next job to come around.
They usually get bored after a day or two and find some sort of programming project to get themselves hacking away on....
I would highly suspect the Fediverse is benefitting from that right now.
Cause that's the other thing about developers.... and in particular the open source ones.... part of how *they* socially network to get paying work is by writing code and socially participating in projects.
Fediverse projects ongoing and future are definitely benefitting from that, I'd say.
I feel like this series of questions is incomplete without one that prompts the reply:
"SpongeBob Squarepants!"
@atomicpoet my worry is that every time a new social network appears it fractures our online society into more and more isolated echo chambers
By that I mean we lose more and more borderline racist/fascist/nationalist people who could possibly be steered away from that bullshit because they're following a group they kind of identify with
I've used overlapping interest in video games or sports to find common ground and maybe change a mind - but it gets harder and harder with each migration
@atomicpoet I wouldn't say Nazis are taking over the platform - unless you know the ideology of some significant majority of twitter developers.
Their voice has been amplified and supported by new management, however with as shocking as it is, I would not be surprised to see it diminish as the bottom line becomes more of a motivator (pure speculation by me).
All that said, my point was speaking to the cost of moving on from the status quo social media platform to a potential next
@atomicpoet sure, I can concede that - it really wasn't a big part of my point
I was more interested as to whether Mastodon might serve as a "next social media platform" that could prove to be fragment-proof.
Instead of users splintering into 10 difference platforms, I could see the nature of this Fediverse allowing for local echo chambers that are united through the Federated timeline.
And with mastodon being API first and dev friendly, we could see some incredible paths of communication
@atomicpoet I understand, I didn't mean to be such an abrasive jerk there so my apologies, I'm just fairly new to mastodon's platform (despite my create date), and don't know *why* having de-centralization would help prevent my concerns.
I think ultimately I'd have to leave mastodon.social and find another smaller more flexible home, or spin up my own instance to truly be able to communicate with all other instances (eg. could Eugen block an entire instance so I couldn't @ them from .social)?
@Smokinjoe De-centralization won't prevent echo chambers. But it will deny them oxygen.
And yes, Eugen does block entire instances.
Having your own instance may help you communicate with more instances but it will also force you to moderate against bad actors.
> De-centralization won't prevent echo chambers. But it will deny them oxygen.
That makes sense, and I guess that's kinda what I'd be hoping for.
I guess the issue is that - could these extreme instances form their own Federated feed?
@atomicpoet When someone has a massive amount of followers there’s no way to communicate with them. I’m a nobody with almost no followers and I’m following super few people, but I’m having trouble keeping up.
Social media is generating an insane amount of material.
@atomicpoet While growth is good, I care less for 'growth' so much as sustainability.
Thanks for keeping us looped in Chris.
@atomicpoet I am more interested in MAU count. Adding users is one, retaining them is a whole different ball of wax.
Currently it seems that Fediverse MAU is holding at just above 3mln. It's not been below 3mln since Nov 18th.
https://the-federation.info/
This is great news. I'd need to do the math properly on new accounts vs. MAU to double-check, but it does seem that a large chunk of new accounts remain active.
Plus, Users Per Node number is also dropping at the same time. Amaze. 🎉
@thatonecalculator the-federation.info is under-reporting?
t-f.i has total number of accounts at 9.5mln, f.o has it at 8.2
MAU:
- t-f.i at 3.1mln
- f.o at 2.1mln
These stats are different, but t-f.i doesn't seem to be under-reporting. Quite the contrary.
More importantly, t-f.i has daily stats, f.o only monthly. I prefer the daily resolution.
Measuring fedi is notoriously difficult, so it's only natural that there's going to be discrepancies.
@rysiek (What's MAU stand for?)
Chris Trottier
Alex
Sir Rochard 'Dock' Bunson
Christopher
CalamusEstFortis
Doreen32128 ready to rumble!
Moved to @
Chris Alemany 🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸 🌱
Avram Grumer 🎲
christina 死神
Thewhitemouse
Igor Sovcik
Annamal
wombatDaiquiri
Olav
Andrew Feeney
Mrinappropriate
nikkiana
Kingsley Uyi Idehen
like jam or bootlaces
awebling
Emanuel Schleussinger 💾
Athena L.M.
joe
Jennifer Slack
Gen X-Wing
Andrew Singleton
Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦
calc.exe
Woozle Hypertwin
Peter Butler
Andyn305