It's not that people aren't sticking around Mastodon.
There's more active users now than there were in September. Back then, there were only ~50,000 active users per month on mastodon.social.
It's that a certain segment of registrations were done either in protest, or as a Plan "B" if the Plan "A" (Twitter continues to be a going concern) fails.
That said, if Mastodon is seen merely as a Twitter alternative it will fail.
It's not a Twitter alternative.
I do believe Twitter is dying.
It's just that it takes a long time for social networks to die.
The first step in killing a social network is killing the culture around it.
Twitter's culture is still alive, but it has cancer.
Since October, the most exciting thing about Mastodon is that the tech has now been validated.
App developers are now actively developing apps for Mastodon and the Fediverse.
Better apps are coming. And more too.
Even designers are getting excited about custom CSS themes.
Mastodon is currently adding ~1 million new users per month.
Sign ups might slow down.
But that means by end of 2023, there will likely be 15-20 million Mastodon users.
This isn't even counting the rest of the Fediverse.
Social networks are not just about how many people use it, but *who* uses it.
Part of Twitter's appeal was that you could directly talk to CEOs, politicians, and celebrities.
Twitter has always been smaller than Facebook, but it was more impactful on a per capita basis because of this.
What I'm noticing is that people who actively build technology have moved en masse to the Fediverse—that has repercussions.
What journalists don't understand:
People who make tech no longer use Twitter because Twitter has entirely alienated developers.
Meanwhile, Mastodon and the Fediverse is built on the promise of "API first".
Who makes innovations? Developers.
Who makes the engine that powers culture? Developers.
Who has Elon Musk made bitter enemies with? Developers.
Chris Trottier
wombatDaiquiri