Mastodawn

Arvind Narayanan

Mastodon has roughly 1% as many active users as Twitter. But it feels like much more than 1%. Why is that?

Because we're not a random 1%. People in some communities are much more likely to find Mastodon appealing. For example, at least 30% of the people I follow on Twitter are on here, based on their Twitter bios.

This "homophily" makes it easier for communities to reach critical mass. The downside is that it makes Mastodon more of an echo chamber (on top of the other reasons that make it so).

Arvind Narayanan Dec 21, 2022

It’s interesting to compare Mastodon to Linux (on the desktop), which IMO appeals to similar types of people due to similar underlying philosophies. In both cases the adoption is roughly 1%.

What might make Mastodon appealing to the 99%? Some possibilities:
* Tumblr, Wordpress, etc. join the fediverse, making its network effect as big as any centralized app.
* Instances run by entities that people know and trust, such as their school, employer, town, or religious organization.

What else?

Arvind Narayanan Dec 22, 2022

Here's a fascinating chart showing Mastodon adoption among a few scientific communities by @TrueSciPhi. https://mastodon.truesciphi.org/@TrueSciPhi/109554915418774658

I'd love to see charts like this for other communities.

One thing the chart shows is that Dear Leader's recent decree about Mastodon had a small but measurable effect: 5-10% of those who had their Mastodon info in their bios removed it.

Kelly Truelove (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image Mastodon lists based on Twitter lists: Astronomers: https://truesciphi.org/ast_mas.html Physicists: https://truesciphi.org/phy_mas.html Professional Science Writers: https://truesciphi.org/psw_mas.html Mathematicians: https://truesciphi.org/mat_mas.html Philosophers: https://truesciphi.org/phi_mas.html

TrueSciPhi Mastodon

The Walrus Dec 22, 2022

@randomwalker @TrueSciPhi

True, I removed my Mastodon link from my Twitter bio.

But then I posted an image...

RWPOINTWOMAN Dec 22, 2022

@randomwalker @TrueSciPhi Please add alt-text to your images or a caption describing the trend lines.

FeralRobots Dec 22, 2022

@randomwalker @TrueSciPhi
I haven't seen this mentioned but they didn't seem to be looking at all at people who had a Mastodon profile as their "website URL". (Though last time I checked, you couldn't enter a new one because Masto links are still flagged as malware.)

Tamar Yellin Jan 4, 2023

@randomwalker @TrueSciPhi Which is weird, because I've had my Mastodon info up since before the "decree" and I've had no issues.

OliverUv Jan 14, 2023

@TamarYellin @randomwalker @TrueSciPhi same. I think they just rejected any change that involved the competing words. Back then I saw someone say they couldn't change *away* from a masto username because apparently they didn't make sure to only reject when people changed *to* masto linking info

Daniel Ayers ZL1DFA Jan 14, 2023

@randomwalker @TrueSciPhi Very interesting. There are still #journalists #banned from #Twitter because the Dear Leader didn't like what they said (and others, like me who tweeted a link to the main website of @ADSBexchange ).

This reminds me of #wartime #reporting when the #journo is operating from enemy territory and subject to #censorship. Each report includes a disclaimer that there are restrictions on what they can report.

At what point should journalists, or scientists, remind readers on Twitter that what they publish there is subject to some restrictions?

⁰FisherTX14 Jan 14, 2023

@daniel_ayers @randomwalker @TrueSciPhi @ADSBexchange

Since it is impossible to trust what comes from that platform, I don't think it matters. The accounts could be faked at any moment, likely a key moment. So they shouldn't be there at all. They are participating in the lowering of journalistic standards. I moved all that still post there into the entertainment category.

Polly Kraisus Jan 14, 2023

@randomwalker @TrueSciPhi wow 30% of science writers! That’s huge! Would love to see what the methodology was. Sounds simple enough but I guess I find it hard to believe that such a huge fraction made it into the fedi, even if it was just dipping their toes or creating an account as a safety net.

Darnell Clayton

@randomwalker Having world leaders join would be helpful. I remember back when Barack Obama was President, his social team joined every social network under the sun (including tiny premium ones like app.net when it was alive).

Str8nger Dec 24, 2022

@darnell @randomwalker especially official govt agencies, institutions & more adoption of credible journalists & reporters will follow IMHO.

Suzanne Aldrich (she/her)Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker I’d like to see the protocol evolve to include other content types, like events, or product listings. People want to meet each other, and sell things to each other. They will need more structured data that’s easier to discover.

xrvs Jan 4, 2023

@suzannealdrich @randomwalker as for events: check out mobilizon, it's already on fedi, though i'mnot sure how interaction with mastodon looks like

Kevin Riggle Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker all the complaints I hear about it on the other site, and frankly the majority of my own, center around a very desktop-Linux “just one more configuration option?? PLEEEEEEAAAAASE 🥺” approach to UX

Kevin Riggle Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker one of my jokes about it was that if I wanted to use Tweetdeck I would simply use Tweetdeck

Kevin Riggle Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker To which people will inevitably say “well you should just use a server running fork X” or “try client Y” or “well I read it in EMacs” which is the kind of thing that sends people screaming back into the arms of Apple and Microsoft on the desktop side

Kevin Riggle Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker And then those same repliers will say “I guess a better product just can’t compete with what people already know” but it can! It’s just not a better product! If people who want to try it can’t accomplish what they want with it!

Kevin Riggle Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker They were almost sold! An adventurous early majority user got so far as to try this thing out! And they bounced off! This is a solvable problem! There are books about this and everything!

Kevin Riggle Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker *BUT* this involves both some actual product vision, as well as an ability and willingness on the part of those people with the product vision to say “no” to yet another new feature checkbox in the UI, which is harder though not impossible in OSS

@randomwalker
I think your second point might be the biggest factor that could make a difference

A better proprietary app would be good too

Madhur Chadha ✅(Product &Tech)Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker perhaps a great client.

Currently is a bit clunky. You need a client with smoother experience and onboarding

Jake Miller Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker Well, this is 1% of Twitter’s numbers, which is itself small compared to Meta’s properties. Many people in my grocery store aren’t Twitter users. I think we should be thinking in terms of over a billion potential users.

* Simpler signups. Don’t ask me about servers to start!
* Easy on-ramps like “people you may know” or want to follow. (Maybe something with closing triads?)

We really need to think about how social networks deliver value to participants.

Thomas Steinke Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker I think email is the right model for Mastodon to follow — anyone can set up an email server, but most people just use Gmail or Outlook. It should all be interoperable, but we probably need a big company that builds a good UI.

Sriram "sri" Ramkrishna - 😼Dec 21, 2022

@steinke @randomwalker I think @gnome has shown that they can build a good user experience and so can others .. we don't need a big company to do the work imho

Rob Stahlnecker Jan 5, 2023

@steinke @randomwalker I think a company with name recognition is helpful too. It gives people a certain amount of comfort.

aminco Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker
One strategy that worked for political revolutionaries is that you solidify your organization & program, train cadres, and prepare for the next crisis. The latter is unavoidable: ad-based businesses are by definition economic parasites that connect themselves to economic cycles and go down with the next slump / crash; paid service isn't possible because the service provided simply isn't worth to people as much as the operating costs require (as someone just found out).

aminco Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker
I guess I'm saying the questions for revolutionaries are how long can your org survive and your ideas distributed and your platform maintained until the next opportunity. It will inevitably arrive. When it does arrive, big changes can happen overnight. Hence the suddenness of revolutions. You do not usually win because you gradually improve and convince people, but because you had something at all to offer at times of crisis.

⁂ Fish Id Wardrobe Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker Not sure the comparison is apt. Now, *running your own instance* is like desktop Linux. In the same way that owning a Toyota is like owning a car…

Elon Musk’s Horse Wallet Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker I think your second point "instances run by entities that people know and trust" could really be the key. But to tweak it slightly I think if for example gmail accounts came with access to Mastodon that would open the door for so many users. I think the big hurdle there would be does google want to get in the business of moderating social media for a few ad bucks? probably not?

Neil Kandalgaonkar Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker I disagree with the premise. Social networks do not succeed if they aim for a very broad audience at first.
The correct move is to build a path from enthusiasts to emerging creators, niche groups, and disruptive businesses.
Google+ and Meta’s Metaverse try to be for everyone on day one. They need to impress Wall St. but more importantly they need to impress their peers.
Result: a megamall built in the desert. When what they needed was an outpost for settlers.

Neil Kandalgaonkar Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker TLDR Mastodon is fine and does not need to grow much faster than it already is. The real threat is someone addressing the UX failures of Mastodon in a way that threatens federation. So the real thing to invest in is making the core protocol responsive to change, and it should always be a good choice to wait for core ActivityPub+ other stuff rather than switch to the would-be monopolist

Max Riethmuller (TechLife)Jan 14, 2023

@neilk @randomwalker agree with this 100% let's make sure we don't throw the baby out with the bath water.

Vinoth (Datacenter security)Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker Start or encourage folks to start an ActivityPub based for-profit startup. For better or worse, I think a significant chunk of the 99% will be motivated by such a provider who can sustainably (hence for profit) provide better UX, algorithm driven home feed, better discovery, better support, apps etc. that happens to be support ActivityPub.

We are the early adopters who are here for the Fediverse part. But much of the 99% has other reasonable priorities. We need to meet where they are, if we want to talk to them over the Fediverse.

Now if you ask me if such a startup will be profitable.... :-)

blterrible Jan 4, 2023

@randomwalker Sadly, I think Mastodon needs an "algorithm" that puts posts in your timeline that match some criteria. Rather, I think it needs an algorithm _framework_ that can support multiple, different algorithms that are configured and supported differently by different server admins and users. It should be done in an open way so that you can see the logic/code behind the whole thing.

Arvind Narayanan Jan 4, 2023

@blterrible Yes, my pinned thread says exactly that :) https://mastodon.social/@randomwalker/109287636404189717

John Jan 5, 2023

@randomwalker celebrities, awesome accounts. Mastodon is the far better platform.

Ruby S.Jan 5, 2023

Why is having more users assumed to be the goal? I like the community I have here and am not in need of an audience of strangers to make me feel relevant.

Riley Jan 14, 2023

@randomwalker I installed an ActivityPub plugin into a WordPress site I run and got a local events feed running at @events in a very short amount of time with very little effort.

To set up posting to Twitter/Facebook/Instagram, I had to install a 3rd party plugin and I occasionally need to reauthorise those integrations.

Having this kind of functionality activated in WordPress by default is a no-brainer in the same way that RSS is activated out of the box.

@randomwalker I’m not sure that lack of misinformation and hate makes Mastodon more of an echo chamber than any other social media platform. I’ve come across more interesting and new ideas here than I ever did on the bird site. People generally just aren’t assholes while expressing their opinions here.

onekade Dec 20, 2022

@randomwalker I don’t know that it means it’s an echo chamber, necessarily. Presumably people in your circles have different views on a variety of issues, different preferences. Probably the differences are relatively small but that doesn’t mean they are irrelevant. The question for me is what am I looking for in a social network? Do I want to be exposed to ideas from right wingers? Not really, no. I want to read the news, learn about other people’s organizing and policy work

onekade Dec 20, 2022

@randomwalker check out movies and music shared by other people. I am not so compelled by the idea that an “echo chamber” social media network is a bad thing.

anubis2814 Dec 20, 2022

@randomwalker We are separated in this echo chamber not by ideas or ideology but by whether a person wants to communicate in good faith. Sadly that does isolate one side from the other most often.

Shelenn Ayres Dec 20, 2022

@randomwalker Nice point but I would also counter that with user choice. Every user in the Fediverse has the option to focus on different timelines, many of which are not Echo Chambers.

VeniceJazz Dec 20, 2022

@randomwalker it also seems like there fewer random accounts like “photos I took of a rusty pan” and “your drunk uncle discusses politics”

Rigo Wenning Dec 20, 2022

@randomwalker being here since some time now, I wouldn't subscribe to your assertions.

1/ My timeline is totally different from (last I looked at) Twitter
2/ Follower & Followed are newly build up
3/ I don't miss the 'write only' accounts
4/ the echo chamber is totally independent of the federation and a function of the mindset of the ones building up their timeline
5/ It feels so much better without algorithms

australia.etc Dec 20, 2022

@randomwalker I think in many ways we are at the beginning of something new. No adverts. No algorithms distorting what people see. And that is before the narcissistic crap currently consuming the bird site. This is open source, community led social media. The #fediverse is something quite magical and revolutionary. And it’s free!

Siona Dec 21, 2022

@aussielol @randomwalker Magical and revolutionary for sure-- though it's not entirely free! There are costs to running servers, so do make sure you donate to those hosting when and if you can. ♡

australia.etc Dec 21, 2022

@siona @randomwalker Absolutely THIS!

Fifi Lamoura Dec 22, 2022

@aussielol @randomwalker I'd say the fediverse is "free" in the mature understanding of freedom, as in with greater freedom comes greater responsibility. This is a basic tenet of true adult independence and freedom, it requires us to be responsible for ourselves and to each other. This means not taking for granted the work system admins and moderators and supporting them how we can in return (financially were possible but also in terms of being good citizens and not treating moderators like they're cops when a lot of what they do is mediation and reminding people not to be dicks). Be a citizen and participant in a community, not a consumer. (My biggest hope is that more of us learn how to empower themselves as citizens, makers and sharers. Play is the most natural way to learn.)

Nasty Nana Dec 20, 2022

@randomwalker
My bird experience was much more like here before the algorithms changed and my timeline was flooded with right wing swill. I was able to read mainly tweets from people I followed, and their retweets. There were of course posters with different views, but they were not being forced on me with a firehose.

@randomwalker my personal mastodon and the account I manage for my OpenSource-Project have _vastly_ more followers here then on Twitter...

Charles J Gervasi ⚡🛡️🥥Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker I find this too. I wonder if it's because of the lack of an algorithm, the hard work behind the scenes of people who maintain instances, or because #Mastodon has mostly early adopters.

Chaoddity Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker i think most of us are social media power users. Tech literate or savvy. Theres a slightly larger learning curve and more to understand and set up to even be here to begin with.

artisanrox Dec 21, 2022

We need more digital places without overfinanced nazis and if that makes it an "echo chamber" then that's great 👍

kaukamieli Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker
The most active 10% made 90% of twitter content. We apparently got some very active users, as a third of the 8,5m users are daily users.

Jeff Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker twitter controls what you see

krayneum Dec 21, 2022

@randomwalker Mastodon is benefiting greatly from the perception that it's the antidote to Twitter under Musk. It's clear that many new users have chosen to migrate here for exactly that reason. The challenge is going to be maintaining that vibe as Mastodon continues to grow.