Gaya Herrington's chart showing #HumanWelfare and the #LimitsToGrowth, beginning from 1900 to the future (2100).

The graph has 4 lines - SW (yellow), CT (blue), BAU2 (red), and BAU (dark blue). The yellow line dips down slightly, then is pretty even. All the other lines point downward, with BAU being the furthest down (indicating a very bad quality of life for humans).

"Here, I’ll just share my conclusions, illustrated by a graph of the variable people might be most concerned with: living standards (Figure 1). This graph is from my upcoming book Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse, soon available online under Creative Commons, which contains further research analysis and 2022 data update of my comparison.

"I found an overall close alignment of empirical data with the scenarios, for now, because they only diverge significantly after 2020. This accuracy decades into the future gives reason to take the #World3 dynamics seriously. If we do that, we unfortunately must conclude that the future holds risks of declines in welfare, among other things, and some of these declines are indeed steep enough to constitute a collapse. The scenario indicated with 'SW' shows no collapse and the highest living standards. However, empirical data aligned least closely to SW.

"I interpret all this as humanity having a now or never opportunity to change direction. Contrary to what my friend texted me, I did not predict the end of the world, just like #LtG didn’t at the time; I noticed #WarningSignals and voiced a call to action. Empirical data are not far from SW yet, and humankind can determine where future data points fall. How? Well, there is one key difference between SW and the other scenarios: in SW, humanity consciously lets go of growth as its goal. Under SW assumptions, society shifts priorities away from industrial output growth towards resource efficiency, #pollution abatement, and #health and #education services. We can do that in the real world too.

"Will we? Before you answer that question in your head, let’s frame it properly. Because this is not about whether we want to avoid collapse; it’s whether we want better. SW represents a redesign of society away from material consumption, around human and #ecological well-being. Yes, that would take a lot of effort. But we’d also be working on healing society, towards a future of thriving. Does that sound to you like something worth putting in work for?"

In other words, and end to #Capitalism and implementation of #Degrowth, with the goal being healthy, educated humans living on a planet that they are actively trying to clean-up!

Source:
https://www.clubofrome.org/blog-post/herrington-ltg50/

#SharingEconomy #SolarPunk #Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis
#EnvironmentalCollapse #Ecocide

Hashem Al-Ghaili on Instagram: "🚨 Trees around volcanoes can act as communication systems, warning of imminent eruptions. Scientists have discovered that trees absorb extra carbon dioxide released by magma underground before an eruption, supercharging their photosynthesis and subtly altering how their leaves reflect light. These changes, invisible to the human eye, are detectable from space using satellites like NASA’s Landsat 8 and ESA’s Sentinel-2. A joint NASA-Smithsonian study confirmed the connection by tracking leaf color shifts alongside volcanic CO₂ levels in Chile and Costa Rica. With around 10% of the global population living near active volcanoes—many in remote areas—this breakthrough could significantly enhance eruption forecasting. While not foolproof (some volcanoes lack vegetation, and climate affects plant responses), this method adds a crucial layer to existing monitoring systems. By using trees as indicators and satellites as observers, scientists gain a powerful new tool to detect signs of volcanic unrest from orbit, potentially saving lives with earlier warnings. learn more https://www.nasa.gov/earth/natural-disasters/volcanoes/nasa-satellites-provide-early-volcano-warnings/"

6,957 likes, 48 comments - hashem.alghaili on July 7, 2025: "🚨 Trees around volcanoes can act as communication systems, warning of imminent eruptions. Scientists have discovered that trees absorb extra carbon dioxide released by magma underground before an eruption, supercharging their photosynthesis and subtly altering how their leaves reflect light. These changes, invisible to the human eye, are detectable from space using satellites like NASA’s Landsat 8 and ESA’s Sentinel-2. A joint NASA-Smithsonian study confirmed the connection by tracking leaf color shifts alongside volcanic CO₂ levels in Chile and Costa Rica. With around 10% of the global population living near active volcanoes—many in remote areas—this breakthrough could significantly enhance eruption forecasting. While not foolproof (some volcanoes lack vegetation, and climate affects plant responses), this method adds a crucial layer to existing monitoring systems. By using trees as indicators and satellites as observers, scientists gain a powerful new tool to detect signs of volcanic unrest from orbit, potentially saving lives with earlier warnings. learn more https://www.nasa.gov/earth/natural-disasters/volcanoes/nasa-satellites-provide-early-volcano-warnings/".

Instagram

A new study suggests that the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”

"It’s observational data from the South Atlantic which suggest the AMOC is on tipping course. Not the model simulation, which is just there to get a better understanding of which early warning signals work, and why."

Stefan Rahmstorf: https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/02/new-study-suggests-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-amoc-is-on-tipping-course/ @climate

#AMOC #EWS #warningSignals #climateChange #dataViz #maps #map #Scotland #Iceland #Norway #Denmark #climate #ColdBlob #NorthSea #Atlantic

RealClimate: New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”

RealClimate: A new paper was published in Science Advances today. Its title says what it is about: "Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course." The study follows one by Danish colleagues which made headlines last July, likewise looking for early warning signals for approaching an AMOC tipping point (we discussed it here),

RealClimate | Climate science from climate scientists...

I don't share work stuff on here often. But here we go. We've just published a paper showing how a computational model of early visual areas can help understand why animal warning signal patterns are...well.....spotty, stripy and colourful.

https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/2041-210X.14268

#vision #neuroscience #warningsignals #AnimalVision

Hello #EcoEvo! For those that don't know me from the bird site: I'm in the write-up stage of my #PhD on variation in #WarningSignals in #TigerMoths, but recently scored a sweet new job as a #ResearchOfficer working on #BeeGutMicrobiomes and #Probiotics. I met the campus bees today- it was a total buzz 😅😏🐝