Quite a few of the world’s “Unsinkable aircraft carriers” are low lying.
And given that “with carbon concentrations in the atmosphere considerably less than at present, in the last interglacial period, the ocean was 9 metres higher than it is now”, many of them will sink.
But my sense is that rather sooner than that, the prospects for aircraft will sink. Which effectively arrives in the same place
"The sermon was so long, that after an hour of it we went away."
Good English pragmatism. Many lesser people would say to themselves, "Having stayed so long, I may as well stay for the rest." Not our Sam. He's a Bayesian updater and infers from the way the sermon went in the first 60 minutes, chances are it would continue like that for another 60, 90 or 120 minutes.
We also note the absence of regret: he gave the man a chance, he saw that nothing good came from it, and he moved on. Very mature. Our Sam would make a good equity investor.
The Sunk Cost fallacy is a type of Relevance fallacy:
"It is often important for businesses to distinguish between relevant and irrelevant costs when analyzing alternatives because erroneously considering irrelevant costs can lead to unsound business decisions."
-- Garrison, Noreen, Brewer (2007)
Managerial Accounting 12th Ed. (p. 578)
Sunk costs are irrelevant costs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relevant_cost
The quote brings to mind the idea that using inconsistent or unknown information in logical inference* is invalid. For example, although the statement
\[ p \wedge q \Rightarrow q \]
is true in binary logic, it is actually invalid in more general relevance logics (e.g., RM3) when \( q \) is inconsistent or unknown.
One might call this notion pseudo-relevance; inconsistent (or unknown) is not exactly the same thing as irrelevant; I'd love to see somebody expand on that.
* Strictly speaking, reasoning towards or from an inconsistency is invalid
Danke & ja. Habe zum ökonomischen Phänomen der "Sunk Costs / Versenkte Kosten" mal eine kleine Folienfolge zur Commitmentfalle gemacht. Würde dazu auch mal gerne extra bloggen. Denn es geht ja um viel mehr als "nur" um Ökonomie dabei. #Verschwörungsglauben #Dualismus #SunkCosts #Commitmentfalle https://commitmentfalle-uhpb7zv.gamma.site/
Made a drink: gin, strawberry syrup, bitters, and then ginger beer for some reason. At that point I might as well add some lime juice. There might have been some distraction going on, then sunk costs. Anyway, it is OK.
It's kind of like a Moscow Mule (but with gin and stuff?) so if it doesn't already exist I suggest the name Bolshevik Abomination.
But it really is pretty drinkable.
Accounts, bei denen ich auf X noch ab und zu mitlese, scheinen:
- X seit neuestem immer weniger zu nutzen 😊
- aber nach #BlueSky statt #Mastodon abzuwandern 😩
Die brauchen wohl nochmal die Erfahrung von #VentureCapital eingefangen, eingelullt, in Abhängigkeit getrieben* und ausgeweidet zu werden.
Wir werden wohl warten müssen, bis auch BlueSky seine Maske fallen läßt und sich die Leute vllt. besinnen…
* #TooMuchInvestedToQuitSyndrom https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eskalierendes_Commitment
#SunkCosts #EskalierendesCommitment
Bitte versuche, die durch Existenz-#Angst verstärkte #Reaktanz hinter dieser Aussage zu verstehen. Dann hast Du den feindseligen #Dualismus von konservativer Seite (samt der #Radikalisierung durch sog. #SunkCosts) verstanden & auch einen Beitrag zur Überwindung progressiver #Arroganz geleistet.
Und, ja, das ist der Schlüssel. Ich kenne mich nicht in vielem aus, darin schon… 🙏🤔💡
@SrRochardBunson @accretionist
“Pot commitment is not about honoring #sunkcosts.
“It's about recognizing that you cannot recover your sunk costs by folding.”
- Josh Barro
"Don't burn the world to build XYZ" is always an argument with weight in these waning years of the fossil fuel era.
But, going forward, into the zero-carbon future that's inevitable if we want to save anything/anyone, we'll have access to all KINDS of cursed vintage artifacts with huge embodied sunk carbon costs. Is "don't use the useful tool we burned the world to build" going to be the advice/argument? I'm not sure that solarpunks-of-necessity can afford to follow it.
This week, we're going to test the proportion that #CorporationTax rates have a material effect on incoming investment... as rate rises from 19%-25%.
However, all is not as it may seem; #JeremyHunt has also launched 100% #taxrelief on capital investment, which may offer some help to #manufacturing whose CapEx needs are (likely) more pronounced than the #servicesector.
Q.is whether the tax rise causes any exits from the UK by large mobile firms, or whether #sunkcosts will keep them here anyway?
Jonathan Schofield
the roamer
CubeRootOfTrue
Michael Blume
Proto Himbo European
Sepia Fan
Coach Pāṇini ®
ErosBlog Bacchus has moved!
Emeritus Prof Christopher May