Does anyone have recommendations about #PredictionMarkets? #Polymarket, #PredictIt, others? What's best for a user in Canada?
None of them seem to be legal in Canada at present...
Does anyone have recommendations about #PredictionMarkets? #Polymarket, #PredictIt, others? What's best for a user in Canada?
None of them seem to be legal in Canada at present...
Today Gaseous Clay took the lead on #PredictIt, and quite the lead it is. Also #TruthSocial is up 50% this week and has more than doubled from its low. We can thank Melon, I suppose. Times are getting scary.
Not loving how things are looking on #PredictIt.org
I'm skeptic of polls, and in my mind, this market is the best proxy for how things are actually going. Which, frankly, is shockingly bad.
Before you defend polls, consider that folks my age (gen y) and younger don't answer the phone for unfamiliar numbers. Heck we don't even answer for family.
Call them prediction exchanges, political betting markets, or straight up gambling. Litigation has followed.
#predictit #polymarket #politics #polls
https://www.barrons.com/articles/polymarket-predictit-presidential-polls-8c859719
Harris (light blue) took the lead over Trump (dark blue) on #PredictIt with high volume on July 31.
Do you think this is pricing in Trump’s racist comments in front of SBJ or something more fundamental?
At the start of the RNC last week, #PredictIt was forecasting a 69% chance that Trump would be the next President.
Those odds not only fell over the course of the RNC, their fall accelerated since Biden's withdrawal.
Current predictions stand at 59%.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election