"The logic behind prediction markets is unlike a poll or a pundit. Instead, the bettor has to publicly put money on the line about their expectations and will lose hard cash for being wrong. This should incentivize accuracy, but only if one assumes the money on the line reflects genuine belief rather than privileged access.
Evidence that it may reward privileged access to information is accumulating."
#Polymarket #Kalshi #betting #gambling #futures #InsiderTrading #Trump #Iran #war
/2
Ashley Splawinski looks at the Kalshi and Polymarket betting markets where people have made money betting on who will be killed next and when, and explains why we're not likely to see much regulation of those markets soon.
There's the fact that Donald Trump Jr. is on Polymarket's advisory board and is a strategic advisor with Kalshi.
#Polymarket #Kalshi #betting #gambling #futures #InsiderTrading #Trump #Iran #war
/1
https://donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-polymarket-nobody-knows-how-to
"One of monetising whatever possible, from the presidency to your online presence, and turning the public into marks. There is a promise that anyone can achieve the same success as the hustler."
#Trump #Iran #war #Polymarket #Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #futures #profiteering #InsiderTrading
/3
"As a result of these transactions, people are naturally asking if it is possible that the president of the United States or his associates are illegally profiting from political power, while also finding that it is almost impossible to answer that question. ...
There is a wider cultural shift, one that is being consolidated in the White House and disseminated on betting platforms."
#Trump #Iran #war #Polymarket #Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #futures #profiteering #InsiderTrading
/2
"Before the US attack on Iran, several new accounts on the platform predicted the timing of the US/Israeli strikes, just 24 hours before they happened. The same pattern was identified after the US coup in Venezuela in January. A single account, set up only a few days before military action occurred, made more than $400,000."
~ Nesrine Malik
#Trump #Iran #war #Polymarket #Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #futures #profiteering #InsiderTrading
/1
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/mar/30/trump-bombs-betting-markets-speculators
29 likes, 1 comments - voteinorout on March 28, 2026: "#SethMoulton urges Congress to avoid prediction markets like #PolyMarket and #Kalshi, where people bet on war events using classified intel. He condemns profiting from such tragedies and vows his team won't participate. #Politics In a strong statement, #SethMoulton highlights the ethical issues of prediction markets, where individuals bet on events like bombings or assassinations, sometimes with insider knowledge. He calls on his colleagues in Congress to join him in rejecting these practices. — While MAGA makes millions betting on mass casualties on Kalshi and Polymarket, we’re doing the right thing. Our staff has not and will not bet on atrocities. That’s only step one. Follow @sethmoulton for more. Help this information get to more voters. 🇺🇸 A well-informed electorate is a prerequisite to Democracy.—Thomas Jefferson".
Markets Watchdog Rolls Over Amid Iran Insider Trading Allegations
"There was no discernible reason for these sudden jumps occurring at 6:50 am, normally a fairly sleepy time for premarket trading. But when Trump’s 7:05 am announcement about all those productive conversations predictably drove oil prices down, and stocks rebounded, those 6:50 am traders made bank. In just a few moments, those anonymous and fortunate folks made roughly $580 million."
#Trump #Iran #oil #gas #markets #StockMarket #InsiderTrading #Kalshi #Polymarket #profiteering #morality
/19
William Lindsey 
The Japan Times
Voteinorout 🇺🇸
Rolling Stone
WhisprNews