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Electoral law: Meloni orders the blitz and the chamber obeys, blackmail in Rome and Milan.
The Prime Minister is moving, the majority is following through. It’s necessary to rush on the electoral law and, indeed, the parliamentary group leaders of the majority have imposed the calendarization starting from June 26th, with limited discussion times. The somewhat surreal aspect is that the text will not be the one previously discussed in committee. There will therefore be no time to examine the new text, similar but not identical to the one already presented. The opposition protests, demanding to reopen the hearings on the new text, but the rejection is already certain. The Prime Minister is in a hurry and we must also take into account the possibility of interventions by the Court, which would force the enactment of yet another text in record time, ignoring the warning of the Constitutional Court regarding the inadvisability of passing an electoral law in the year preceding the vote.
Regarding electoral law in Italy, nothing is ever certain, but at this point, given the leader’s determination and the green light from allies, it is highly probable that a vote with a majority bonus will be held, meaning with the obligation to surpass opponents by even one vote to secure a broad majority of seats. With these rules, it will therefore be a four-way game. Certainly, there are many parties in Italy, but a broad coalition will include 5, two of which, Verdi and Sinistra Italiana under the single banner Avs, and the center-right will coalize with four. The 3% threshold should be accompanied by the existing rule that allows the coalition party best placed below 3% to enter anyway. Renzi on the left and Lupo, with his Noi Moderati on the right, will benefit from this. However, there are not only the main players, and in a vote-by-vote challenge, the minor players risk proving decisive. They are two: Azione, Calenda’s party, whose natural placement would be in the center-left, and Futuro Nazionale, Vannacci’s formation which is explicitly radical right. The 3% threshold was kept so low precisely to prevent the votes of Azione, given the improbability of exceeding higher thresholds, from ending up with the broad coalition in the name of the useful vote. Vannacci also benefits from this, for whom the same logic applies and who risks taking even more from the right than Calenda should steal from the left.
On the right, no one wants to ally with the General, feared by everyone even among the parties of the center-right for different reasons. The votes he would bring cannot be added without further calculations to those accredited by polls within the center-right: a portion of the moderate electorate would probably abandon a formation with openly neofascist forces within it. But if the polls indicated the General’s votes as decisive, there would be few ways out. The Forza Italia (FdI) faction, from the perspective of the political horizon and not just the eventual electoral damage, is the most hostile to Vannacci, and with little hope of success, they would instead try to recruit Calenda, thus shifting the alliance to the center instead of to the right as would happen by recruiting the General. FdI, increasingly a party of moderate right, would probably have nothing against it, unlike Lega. Knowing Calenda, one can reasonably predict that the issue will not be raised while, without solid assurances from the poll oracle, Vannacci’s right will have to make a difficult and undoubtedly painful choice.
However, it’s not just Palazzo Chigi. Next year there will also be elections in Rome and Milan, and there, the two minor players in the national game would be needed. Vannacci keeps the center-right cousins on a string, promising that his lists will be there and perhaps even his candidates, but postponing any decision on possible alliances. Calenda, for his part, emphasizes the non-taken-for-granted nature of his support for Gualtieri’s confirmation in the capital. It remains to be seen. Finally, both formations will be decisive for the run-offs in two squares, Arezzo and Vigevano. In the first, the centrists, around 20%, will be courted by the center-right. In the second, the candidate already supported by Vannacci, with his 14%, will decide the direct confrontation. Local stories that will have a reflection and will be interpreted as clear signals on a national scale.
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