kaliin #systemdynamics, which is what we are talking about looking at #complex #systems like societies, #collapse typically describes a rapid, nonlinear, sustained decline in stocks & flows such as population & industrial output after a period of growth or plateauing, caused by a change in feedback dominance in the systems causal structure.
Aykut Kibritçioğlu“A New Systems Model Building and Analysis Software: The Qualitative Systems Exploration Model (QSEM)”
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7364121786168303617
Brian Greenberg 
📊 Rethinking inventory strategy — new system dynamics research challenges retail norms.
A recent study shows that introducing a competing product earlier during an existing product’s decline phase can lead to higher long-term revenue. 🤯
Key insights for retail leaders:
🛒 Inventory decisions must model real substitution behavior
🔁 Early introductions can phase out old products more profitably
🧮 Demand forecasting should include stockout effects
📦 Safety stock planning and shorter review cycles reduce lost sales
🧠 Dynamic, not static, strategies win in FMCG and tech retail
This is a must-read for anyone managing product portfolios, especially in fast-moving markets where demand shifts fast and substitution patterns aren't predictable.
Fabio CapelaDynamic withdrawal strategies in retirement can be modeled as feedback control systems (like in physics engineering). They adjust withdrawals based on portfolio performance, creating a responsive system that can adapt to market conditions instead of rigidly following fixed rules. #SystemDynamics #RetirementPlanning #AdaptiveSystems
Guido Wolf Reichert ⚛️Maybe in my #systemdynamics bubble someone can answer this question regarding #elasticity in a continuous-time dynamical systems context (i.e., it is a factor scaling fractional rates)?
Why is this (very natural) momentum-related formulation not more widespread in models?
Jochen FrommJay Forrester (at 21:00) about #systemdynamics and why governments around the world are not able to stop #climatechange:
"a deep understanding of these issues would make a very major change in the world but that deep understanding [..] has to include a public understanding because you cannot expect these changes to come from the top of a corporation or the top of a government. People in [..] System Dynamics as well as other approaches to policy design are always talking about convincing decision makers. There are no such people [..] When it comes to the big issues if a policy in government or a corporation is going in this direction and that's a governmental policy and you'd like to push it a little bit one way or the other then you can persuade and you can have lobbyists and you can bribe a few people and you can push it a little bit but if the real goal is to reverse it totally there is no government that's capable doing that unless there is a public support and so [..] it has to come up from the Grassroots [..] to be able to deal with the big issues that put the long-term ahead of the short term which is one of the main things [we need to do]"
https://youtu.be/6b4DmGtlOik?si=RXwBP8bajXX-FY5K
Jay Forrester Part 2)
John Scales Avery (1933-2024) was an American theoretical chemist. In his book "Civilization's Crisis" he argues that civilization as a whole faces a set of linked challenges. #ClimateChange is caused by consumption of non-renewable #FossilFuels but it is just one aspect of a bigger crisis. Other aspects are #Deforestation, #OceanAcidification, #NuclearWaste and #pollution in general. #ResourceDepletion and #VanishingResources in combination with #OverPopulation will eventually lead to a #collapse of #civilization in this century according to #systemdynamics and classic #limitstogrowth models. The turning point is #PeakOil or the #HubbertPeak which we are reaching now.
https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/10501
More articles from John can be found here
https://www.johnavery.info/
Power_to_the_People (he/him)Prof Steve Keen recommended this short climate film to the seminars. So glad he did - I echo his recommendation! Strong shared themes with the climate elements of his critique of mainstream econ, incl. feedback loops, tipping points, and complex systems. And yet, accessible! An important film.
#ClimateExtremes:AtTheAbyss #SteveKeen #climatechange #systemdynamics #feedbackloops #tippingpoints #amoc
Climate Extremes (Full Documentary)
Whew! Steve Keen's legacy seminar was a real treat today! Watching him building data-analysis models on-the-fly in his own systems dynamics & double-entry accounting program - Ravel - is poetry in motion!
He mentioned recently that he now has a promotions assistant who helps maintain his social media accounts; today I asked him if he and/or the assistant could set up an account on Mastodon. He said, "That's a good idea!" So, fingers crossed...
cponsardThe MIT Team of The Limits to Growth. From left to right: Jørgen Randers, Jay Forrester, Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, William Behrens. 🙌🏻
Photo grabbed @Academy_Change
#SystemDynamics #systemsthinking #LTG50