One useful tip: do a “pre-mortem.” Before you decide, imagine your causal idea is wrong. Then figure out why.

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One practical tip: create a “kill criteria” list beforehand. Define specific metrics that, if missed, will force a rethink. It takes the emotion out of the decision.

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Doing this helps you reposition proactively, allocate resources away from fading opportunities, and increase your first-mover advantage.

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Don't overclaim. It's better to be careful and then exceed expectations.

One useful trick: tell a story. Say I used to think X, but then I found this evidence and now I think Y. It shows you're actually thinking.

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Avoid:
Giving one forecast. It creates false confidence. Show a range instead.
Getting stuck on early information. actively look for evidence that contradicts your view.

A useful tool:
Compare different risks using expected value. Multiply how likely something is by its impact. This helps weigh very different kinds of risks.

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