A Pragmatic Perspective on the Iran Conflict
Many people have requested that I outline some context on the Iran conflict; so, here it is.
What follows is my own researched perspective on the challenge that President Trump is facing. I anticipate the non-interventionists will not be happy with it, and also the Israel First crowd will not like the brutal pragmatism of it. Alas, having spent a great deal of time watching things unfold, here’s my take.
Start with this question: Considering all the years the debate over Iran’s nuclear ambitions has persisted, why haven’t its strongest allies, China and Russia, ever provided Iran with a nuclear weapon?
Now, before anyone jumps into the nuclear non-proliferation perspective, let me remind you we are not going to pretend things here. You can pretend that Beijing didn’t give the DPRK nuclear weapons by pretending that North Korea isn’t a proxy province of China. Or you can stop pretending. The choice is yours!
So, what’s different? Well, in the DPRK example, Beijing holds the control mechanism. For Iran, giving religious fanatics a nuclear weapon would be tantamount to giving the Muslim Brotherhood the ability to start World War III.
As recently noted, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman urged President Trump not to back down from this moment of consequence and to eliminate the Iranian threat once and for all. MbS is about as close to a Middle East pragmatist as you can find. In response, a desperate British Prime Minister Keir Starmer rushed to Saudi Arabia hoping to change the position of MbS. Great Britain is almost out of fuel.
That’s a good place to start looking at the regional perspectives.
Islamic extremists, religious zealots, fanatics, cannot be trusted with nuclear weapons. Even those who are sympathetic to the Iranian regime, particularly Turkey and Qatar, are pragmatic about this issue.
Nuclear weapons must never fall into the hands of Hezbollah, Hamas, al-Qaeda, the Islamic State (ISIS), al-Nusra, and all of the extreme -perhaps most authentic- factions of Islam are included in that outlook.
While it is true that Israel has carried out a brutal, over-the-top, offensive against Hamas in Gaza, it is also true that Egypt – via President al-Sisi, spent two years destroying Hamas terror tunnels on the Egyptian-Gaza border and installed a five-layer security perimeter to keep the Islamist “Palestinians” out of the Sinai.
President Sisi (Egypt) and King Abdullah (Jordan) do not want to import Palestinian Hamas promoters, despite their very public opposition to the offensive methods of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
♦ The Muslim Brotherhood represents the political face of extremist (authentic) Islam. Turkish President Recep Erdogan is one of the zookeepers keeping the big cat cages under control, while simultaneously using the big cats to draw an audience.
Qatar is the banking side of The Muslim Brotherhood, feeding the big cats and providing them indulgences to keep them satiated. The intelligence services of Israel (Mossad) and the USA (CIA) are involved in this process.
When it comes to authentic Islam, you might say that essentially Mossad and the CIA are the physical cages, while Turkey (Recep Erdogan) and Qatar (Amir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani) are the zookeepers.
Turkey the gateway to Europe, is a NATO member not a NATO ally. Qatar has a foot in both the lawfully constrained western world and a foot in the religious fanaticism world. While the tightrope walking might seem difficult both Turkish President Recep Erdogan and Qatari Amir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani have navigated this dynamic as part of their own influence and affluence operation.
That said, none of the names involved thus far want the rabid faction of the big cats to get a nuclear weapon. President Donald Trump does not want the rabid cats to get a nuclear weapon. None of the voices in the Middle East, sans the fanatical Iranian religious faction, want Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
All of these various regional players have their own individual nuance to retain influence and power. However, on the issue of nuclear weapons they all agree – Iran must never have them, because Iran would represent the biggest threat in the entire world to using them. [Name a weapon that Iran has never used.]
None of Iran’s allies – not Pakistan, not Russia and not China – would ever fathom giving Iran a nuclear weapon, because the leadership of Iran is sketchy, unstable and, well, potentially batsh!t crazy enough to use it. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are just as zero-sum minded as the Islamic clerics they protect.
This accurate and factual baseline of common interest is why you do not see any of the regional voices opposing President Trump’s effort to ensure that Iran NEVER HAS a nuclear weapon?
How strong is that sense of common interest?… Strong enough to accept Israel bombing Iran in support of that common interest. Turkey, aligned in sympathetic voice with the Muslim Brotherhood, hates Israel; but they hate Israel slightly less than they hate the thought of Iran having a nuclear weapon.
So, against the backdrop of Iran rejecting any deal that precludes them from having a nuclear weapon, where does that leave things?
It leaves the entire Middle East in a position to continue supporting President Trump’s effort to stop Iran from ever having a nuclear weapon. It really is that simple.
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, The UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and yes, even Qatar, are willing to endure a considerable amount of economic pain and internal friction in order to get to the place where Iran stops their nuclear objective.
It’s the Iranian nuclear threat that’s the problem. It’s the Iranian nuclear threat that has always been the problem.
This time, President Donald J Trump is trying to deal with that threat once and for all.
Europe is going bananas because they need oil/gas. The U.K is going bananas because they need oil/gas. Asia is really in a bad place because they too need oil/gas. The energy problem goes all the way to Australia because they too need oil/gas.
The more a nation chased the net-zero carbon, climate change, global warming nonsense, the more they are exposed to the dire Straits of Hormuz. Japan can hold out a little longer with reserves and China can ultimately make do with Russian provision.
Which brings us to the point where President Trump is saying the U.S. will end up having to control the Strait of Hormuz, and we should look for an extension to the Russian sanction relief as a direct consequence of Iran rejecting the terms of JD Vance and the USA delegation.
Now, there are some who claim that Iran doesn’t want a nuclear weapon, and/or Iran has a fatwa against nuclear weapons. These voices are ridiculous. Think about the irrational logic of the claim: Iran is refusing to stop pursuing something they do not want.
♦ It can be argued that Israel is being opportunistic and leveraging the regional support for Trump toward their own interests and objectives. It is a fair criticism to say the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu is too militaristic and aggressive. Israel’s continually aggressive posture makes it difficult to navigate the nuances of strong diplomacy.
In fact, both President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have stated the goals and objectives of the USA and Israel may not be aligned on all matters, and Turkish President Erdogan has been exceptionally critical of Israel’s continued military operation into Lebanon, presumably targeting Hezbollah.
However, there is no indication that Israel is directing President Trump on the issue of a denuclearized Iran.
On the issue of Iran never having nuclear weapons, it has been the stated policy of every U.S. administration for 40+ years, and on that issue the entire Middle East is in agreement.
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This ‘pragmatic’ position seems to be refuted by Trump tearing up an existing agreement with Iran, which gave him everything he now purports to want; and twice attacking Iran in the midst of promising negotiations, acts which have needlessly damaged USA’s reputation with allies and enemies alike. I am posting this essay so readers can see all points of view. There may be other considerations besides what is publicly known for Trump’s aggressive and seemingly militarily foolish moves. I respect Sundance, the author of the above piece, but am also well aware that he has a blind spot when it comes to Israel and Jewish Supremacist infiltration of USA. I have reposted his entire essay with his permission. ABN
#abn #analysis #gameTheory #geopolitics #infiltration #pragmatism #strategy #supremacy
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