HistoPol (#HP) ๐ด ๐บ๐ธ ๐ด(10/10)
...are not afraid yet, you should be. If #Elmo excels at one thing, it seems to be to make the previously "impossible" come true.//
PS:
The aforementioned #Grok forecast precedes all of this business case analysis.
(6/n)
๐10,000 #Starship rockets annually,๐ according to #ElonMusk's announcement in January 2026.
Oh, and they have already succeeded at reusing one half of the rocket ๐ and ate working on making the second half reusable, too.
Now, is there currently that much demand for #Space cargo? No, not anywhere near it.
#Musk uses much of the current capacity to launch his #Starlink #Satellites, where he is not unimaginably far from achieving... @appassionato @mina @si_irini
(5/n)
...his obsession of making humankind a #MultiplanitarySpecies to fruition, he must make unimaginable spacecraft payloads of money.
How does #Elon plan to do this unimaginable feat (at least for non-billionaires)?
The only way that this can be achieved is for #SpaceX to become some sort of "#GateKeeperToTheStars.
Well, look again:
๐#SpaceX is targeting to produce as high as...
(4/n)
...#SpaceX 2/hide the gigantic, rising losses, + the fact that the #IPO dropped now, begs the question, if #Elmo doesn't know...(OFC #Musk *must* know, he is no #Kremlin recluse, from a tea with whom one might never rise again).
(I forgot:
For context, #PeterThiel's ๐#Palantir has the highest P/S ratio in the #S&P500 at 67xโroughly half of what #SpaceX is targeting๐, betting on abominations like an #AIGeneral and total surveillance.)
To...
@appassionato
#HPsCommentary
#AIEthics
(3/n)
...our forecast model,
#Elmo's #Grok is very much likely to have a public meltdown in the next quarter, possibly even as soon as the current one.
Considering the *insane* valuation, he's asking for in #SpaceX's #IPO, a whopping 100-130 p/e ratio (for comparison:
Nvidia: ~21x (despite 65% annual growth)
Tesla: ~16x
Microsoft: ~10x
Amazon: ~3.5x
S&P 500 average: 2โ3x)
...and the fact that the "Grok company," #xAI, was recently merged with...
(2/n)
...quite likely, the #Neuroscientists, *do recognize * the #NeuralNetworks resembling structures and can even determine which *human emotion* (most likely other concepts as well) the are (trying?) to mimick.
The leading AI scientists seem to be wondering what is happening, having very little of a clue.
I am willing to make a forecast, due to some analyses that I have done over the past months (not at liberty 2 discuss in detail).
According to..
@appassionato
#HPsCommentary
#AIEthics
(1/2)
"We don't write the code for these models anymore; we write the algorithm that lets them build themselves. The creators are standing on the outside looking into an opaque black box, catching glimpses of neuroscience-like structures developing on their own."
๐ฏ%
However, let's rephrase this:
The #LLMs are *autonomously* and *purposefully* building *complex* structures that can be observed similarly in human brains ๐ง . The leading #AI (or rather,...
#HPsCommentary
#USHistory #Legal #FediLaw
(7/7)
...my point of view, that is a clear manifestation of #AnimalFarm.
//
...If #Xi does *not* bide his time and waits until then, it will only be him to blame, because in contrast two the two other authoritarian superpower leaders, ge is *not* a gerontocrat and *can* wait.--As for the other two, their days are very much numbered. Death cannot (yet?) be cheated.
//
1)
https://global.oup.com/academic/product/when-china-ruled-the-seas-9780195112078?cc=de&lang=en&
...#GulfWar3 drags on for am extended period of time, they might have to replenish these strategic reserves, before they can launch ๐ the attack, possibly pushing that armed conflict into the next decade...
Which might even constitute yet another advantage to them, as their military shipbuilding, outstripping any other nations, will lead to yet another "century when the #Chinese navy ruled the seas."1)
I will go even one step further:...