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Iran War | One Month SITREP

The war is going swimmingly for Iran: enemy radars gone, interceptor stockpiles have fallen; Iranian missiles and drones are finding their targets with precision. US and Israel have no military targets left in Iran to strike (anything of value is below ground) and instead terror bombings à la Serbia (1999) and Iraq (1991 and 2003). Iran is sticking with game plan and relentlessly denuding region of US bases, forcing US to resort to long range bombings (from UK and CONUS). Iran’s air defenses hold. Europe feeling the heat.

US-Israel Terror Campaign

“Terror campaign” is not hyperbole. CENTCOM claims to have bombed 11,000+ targets relating to the “Iranian regime’s security apparatus, prioritizing locations that pose an imminent threat,” but this is false. Missile cities and armaments production sites are underground and operating. Operational status of missile cities is provable: Israel and US bases are being pounded every day, with multiple waves of missiles and drones per day.

Reality vs Claims by CENTCOM

When CENTCOM claims to have destroyed a “drone manufacturing” facility, this probably means that an innocuous factory was attacked. US and Israel are applying the “Dahiya Doctrine” to Iran. Per the Iranian Red Crescent Society data, as of Sunday, 29 March 2026, US and Israel bombed:

In addition to the above, US and Israel bombed:

• Twenty Iranian universities, medical research centers, and dormitories, including Tehran University of Science & Technology, Isfahan University of Technology, and Amir Kabir University, vibrant institutions of learning. This is an attempt to destroy knowledge and learning in Iran.
• 600 schools were bombed, which puts the 28 Feb 2026 bombing of the school in Minab in context: this attack was not due to an errant Tomahawk missile; far from it: Minab school was “double-tapped.” Bombing schools and children, apart from being war crimes, is to impair Iran’s future.
• Water plants, electricity power plants, Bushehr (civilian nuclear energy plant) and Natanz nuclear research sites, and two steel plants. This is to destroy Iran’s industrial base.
• ≈120 cultural sites, including three UNESCO World Heritage sites. US (250 years old) and Israel (78 years old) have no culture or history worthy of mention (Israel, the joke goes, has no history; it only has a criminal record). Iran, however, has thousands of years of culture and history. This is an attempt to eradicate Iran’s historical and cultural legacies.
• ≈2,000 Iranian civilians (including >250 children) have been murdered. Thousands injured (no recent statistics are available for publication).

Examples of Terror Campaign

https://vimeo.com/1178153133?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci

https://vimeo.com/1178153401?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci

https://vimeo.com/1178153615?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci

https://vimeo.com/1178153782?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci

Iran’s Defense

Iran’s air defenses (AD) are holding. US/Israel still using its dwindling stocks of standoff weapons to attack from Iran’s western and southern peripheries. Iranian AD downed one USAF F-35 “stealth” fighter (nobody told the Iranians that the F-35 is stealthy!) and several USAF fighter jets. F-35s no longer venture near Iran! If Iran’s AD breaks, the terror campaign will intensify as US/Israel have virtually unlimited supplies of “smart” and “dumb” bombs.

Iran’s Offense

Iran is not resorting to “counter-value” strikes (i.e., civilians, hospitals, etc.) to the chagrin of observers. Consensus is that US and Israel will only cease their terror campaign when Iran returns the favor, but Tehran insists on waging an ethical campaign.

Iran has eliminated radars throughout the region—except for the last THAAD radar at the NATO base in Incirlik, Turkey (graphic below is out of date). The three phases of the campaign are: (1) blind US eyes; (2) deplete interceptor stocks; (3) delete US and Israeli military assets (there is overlap of phases). We are firmly into the deletion phase. US bases in the Persian Gulf (Arab states), Jordan, and Iraq have been fully or partially destroyed.

Interceptor stockpiles are low; Iranian missiles and drones dominate the skies. A good example is the strike at Prince Sultan Air Base, KSA, on Friday, which destroyed several KC-135 refueling tankers and an E-3 Sentry AWACs. Note the precision of the strike: right on the radar, probably using an optical sensor for guidance.

European Complicity in the War

US Navy’s Fifth Fleet HQ fled Manama, Bahrain, for Souda Bay, Crete. Since Iran has made inoperable US air bases in Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Jordan, and is wrecking PSAB (KSA), US operations are being conducted out of Europe or continental US (CONUS). Ramstein, DE, is the HQ for anti-Iran operations. Long-range war with reduced daily sortie rates is to Iran’s advantage, but the war would grind to a halt if EU leaders prevented the US from using European soil to conduct an illegal war of aggression.

Europe’s complicity in the war will haunt its relations with post-war Iran. Spain’s PM, Pedro Sanchez, has barred US from using Spanish territory even for refueling purposes. Moreover, he condemned the war against the Iranian nation. Iranians have praised his brave but lonely stance in the European Union.

The United Kingdom will have a very rocky relationship with post-war Iran. Despite PM Starmer’s claim that he is only allowing the use of RAF bases for “defensive” purposes, US B-2 bombers were filmed being loaded with ordnance and flying from RAF Fairford, Gloucestershire, to bomb Iran.

https://vimeo.com/1178152746?share=copy&fl=sv&fe=ci

Last Word

This SITREP is not encyclopedic (too much happening). Briefly, on Persian Gulf Arab states and Iraq.

Gulf States: despite US pressure, they are reluctant to join the US-Israeli campaign. Oman is neutral (and critical of US and Israel); Qatar and Iran have a truce (Qataris are being pragmatic). Bahrain, Kuwait, and UAE fear participating in a war of aggression against Iran, but may join if KSA does. Ansarallah (“Houthis”) announced its entry on Iran’s side and fired a missile at Israel. This is Yemen’s warning to KSA: join US-Israel and we’ll smack you in the Red Sea. Yanbu oil terminal, East-West Pipeline, and closure of Bab al-Mandab are on the table. Riyadh is assuredly concerned.

Iraq: twenty-three years after the US invasion, Iraq is on the verge of total liberation. US bases have been wrecked and troops have fled. The US base in Erbil (Iraqi Kurdistan) is under heavy fire. Americans troops in Kurdistan—many now in civvies—are hiding in hotels and residences; but Iranians and Iraqis are hunting them.