An acceleration in human-caused global warming could see the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit breached before 2030

Record-high temperatures in recent years have led scientists to ask whether #GlobalWarming is accelerating.
The authors of the new study decided to use two different statistical approaches to test whether they can identify a “statistically significant” acceleration in global warming from the long-term temperature record.
The “noise” from natural drivers of temperature change, such as #ENSO can make it tricky to spot underlying trends. However, Foster tells Carbon Brief that after removing the influence of natural variability, “acceleration is easy to prove statistically – some might even say it becomes obvious”.
Both tests find that

--> warming is accelerating

with more than 98% confidence for each of the five datasets. When the same tests were run on the unadjusted data, they failed to reach even 95% confidence, showing the importance of removing natural variability from the warming signal, according to the study authors.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/pace-of-global-warming-has-nearly-doubled-since-2015-study-says/

#ClimateScience
#ClimateCrisis

A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.

#LaNina #ENSO #ElNino

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

#FYI #PaulBeckwith video lecture and literature review #accelerated #heating #ENSO @paulbeckwith

Paul & Sir Isaac Newton ESP helping us look down surprised mid-air above the creek :/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aX3fInf7iaU

#climate #ClimateScience #climatechange #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #ClimateDisruption #globalWarming #globalHeating #ExtremeWeather #polycrisis

Análisis meteorológico detallado sobre el debilitamiento de La Niña, la transición a condiciones neutrales del ENSO y el aumento de probabilidades de El Niño a finales de 2026.

#LaNiña #ENSO #ElNiño #Tutiempo

https://www.tutiempo.net/noticias/transicion-enso-fin-la-nina-posible-regreso-el-nino-2026.html

Häppchen #Klimawissen: Wie beeinflusst der #Klimawandel das Wetterphänomen #ElNiño? 🌍🔥

Wird es durch die Erwärmung extremer und unberechenbarer? Mehr über die weltweiten Auswirkungen von #ENSO und die möglichen Risiken für unsere Zukunft im Beitrag.

https://www.oekologisch-unterwegs.de/klimawandel/948-klimawandel-kippelemente-aenderungen-des-stroemungsphaenomens-el-nino-im-pazifik.html

#Wetter #Extremwetter #LaNiña #Klimaforschung #GlobaleErwärmung #Naturphänomene