O=C=OAn acceleration in human-caused global warming could see the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit breached before 2030
Record-high temperatures in recent years have led scientists to ask whether #GlobalWarming is accelerating.
The authors of the new study decided to use two different statistical approaches to test whether they can identify a “statistically significant” acceleration in global warming from the long-term temperature record.
The “noise” from natural drivers of temperature change, such as #ENSO can make it tricky to spot underlying trends. However, Foster tells Carbon Brief that after removing the influence of natural variability, “acceleration is easy to prove statistically – some might even say it becomes obvious”.
Both tests find that
--> warming is accelerating
with more than 98% confidence for each of the five datasets. When the same tests were run on the unadjusted data, they failed to reach even 95% confidence, showing the importance of removing natural variability from the warming signal, according to the study authors.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/pace-of-global-warming-has-nearly-doubled-since-2015-study-says/
