Greece. Another carbon sink one bites the dust. After Germany, Finland, and ...? Yet EU policy is still to use national carbon sinks to balance insufficient or absent sectoral CO2 reduction. Which is allowed practice according to the UNFCCC as well. Stupid, isn't it. It's called the pyrocene for a reason.
#Forest #BarkBeetle #WildFire #CarbonSink #Greece #Pyrocene #Anthropocene #EconObscene
7/end
My recipe against 3 degrees by 2050 is still:
15 years of wartime command economy. Put everyone on itemised rations like in a war. Start with an amount of items and mobility certs that equal 5t CO2 per person per year in mid latitude rich countries.
This is a) fit to immediately reduce emissions by 40 to 50% from today's level. Low meat rations –and methane emissions also decline. And b) it is a dignified living level according to German Constitutional Court – which had to do a ruling regarding the dignified amount of social welfare, and that amount of money today is worth about 4t CO2 per year per person. We'll just add 1t for mobility.
From this level of consumption and emissions, we concentrate all our economic and political effort on the energy and agricultural transformation.
Job loss due to company closures (looking at you, automotive, and you, cattle farmers) has to be dealt with in such a way that no one loses their (too big a ) roof over their heads.
Meanwhile we design, legislate and implement processes that enable us to live sustainably after the 15 year period. Whether that system resembles Levermann's Folding Faltung or a mix of other concepts is tbd. Important is to get to CO2zero first and fast.
The 15 years might appear daunting or even unbearable. ^^ But we get to keep our tech civilisation in return, including all that it needs for modern medicine, modern transport, modern entertainment, modern science.
And we get to invent all sorts of work arounds and new stuff when we are faced with hard boundaries within which to operate. Boundaries ignite inventions.
Collapse will ignite inventions too. But all that we know today will be lost once our generation dies out. Because the knowledge and skills can't be maintained after a collapse.
So let's end the #EconObscene and just deal with it 🖖🏽
#ThreeDegreesMore #climateChange #RCPcollapse #Rationing #CommandEconomy
I stopped reading the paper after the suggestion that "build back better" were a factor in climate cost calculations.
I stopped because I first wanted to take notes of my thoughts so far, before I would continue to read and add more thoughts.
But I ... feel sick to my stomach at the thought of continuing with the paper. The #EconObscene and economists' arrogant believe that their game of throwing dice had actual meaning makes me feel sick.
The paper received attention by a few journalists. But only in the form of "listen to economists, here's what they calculated".
Journalists never put economists' gaming into perspective. So their readers then also just trust economists.
And policy makers trust economists as well. Which is why we're in the EconObscene.
Economists are desperately trying to put a €-number on climate disasters to inform policy makers.
Here, it's the ECB, EU Central Bank, funding a paper from a Mannheim Univ economist.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S001429212500131X
"Going NUTS: The regional impact of extreme climate events over the medium term" by Sehrish Usman et al 2025.
or https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp3002~a77b495fa8.en.pdf
Some thoughts.
"In high-income regions, [flood] is followed by more
investment...suggesting a reconstruction boom." But that boom is stolen from other activities that then don't occur – and non-occurrence isn't measured by economists:
*The 2021 flood damaged 600🇩🇪 railroad bridges. The repair raised GDP👏🏽 but stole resources like raw material, workforce and funds
from much needed maintenance (needed due to decade-long neglect in favour of car dependency)
and rail network extension.
(Book Flixbus-eq, guys!)
They then suggest
"build back better" as potential positive outcome of a destructive climate disaster [a factor economists also can't put a number on].
Dream on...
*Insurers involved in the 2021 flood demanded that home owners replace damaged gas boilers 1:1 and wouldn't pay for climate-friendly heatpumps.
*Rebuilding at risky site got permitted in all but 1 case.
In 2023, two thirds of Slovenia were flooded. That area in square km could have been the same as in the 2021 flood.
Below is the country of Slovenia overlaid over the 2021 flood area which also included east Belgium. https://thetruesize.com/#?borders=1~!MTQ0NzQ1MzM.MTMxMjM4NzA*MjEwMTAxNDE(MTc1NjA0MzQ~!CONTIGUOUS_US*MTAwMjQwNzU.MjUwMjM1MTc(MTc1)MQ~!IN*NTI2NDA1MQ.Nzg2MzQyMQ)Mg~!CN*OTkyMTY5Nw.NzMxNDcwNQ(MjI1)Mw~!SI*NzY2NzQ0.MTMzOTgwNzI)NA
Road and rail network in Slovenia might not have been as dense as in the 2021 area, so maybe only 200 rail bridges got damaged?
But what does this damage entail for the nation state of Slovenia?
How does the state budget cope with the unexpected expenses and what are the "costs" of delayed development projects?
The country also lies in the normal flight path of the summer jetstream that regularly hauls hot Mediterranean water and dumps it over cooler, elevated land.
Switzerland, Austria, Bavaria, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia to name but a few EU states, all lie in that flight path.
Inundation of 2/3 of its infrastructure will become, or already is, who knows, a regular occurrence in Slovenia.
How long until the state is broke?
When will the young generation give up and [try to] flee to larger nation states?
How will policies change in those larger states due to influx of desperate climate refugees from EU countries?
#ExtremeWeather #flood #drought #heatwave #Economics #EconObscene #ClimateChange #ClimateEconomics
Weil alle Ökonomen und politischen Akteure wieder behaupten, Deutschland bräuchte Wachstum...
Meinen die vielleicht die Grenzen nach Norden, Osten oder Westen erweitern, damit Deutschland wächst? ^^
Nach Süden wäre nicht ratsam, weil Klimawandel dort zu teuer wird. Schon Südbayern sollten wir den Österreichern überlassen, weil das heißer werdende Mittelmeer nun ständig darüber ausgekippt wird.
Wachstums-bedingt heißeres Mittelmeer übrigens.
Wirtschaftswachstum geht einher mit Zerstörung unserer Lebensgrundlagen.
Und es ist völlig egal, ob es in 20 oder 30 Jahren mal theoretisch möglich wäre, eine nahezu rohstofffreie Dienstleistungswirtschaft implementiert zu haben. Weil das, was JETZT wächst, CO2 und andere THG emittiert und die Natur killt.
JETZT muss abgebremst werden. Und es wird auch abgebremst. Ihr wisst schon, by design oder by disaster. #ÖkonObszön #EconObscene #Degrowth #Postgrowth
Speziell auch die Lüge von #Merz mit dem angeblichen #Verbrennerverbot und dem angeblichen Zwang zu #Wärmepumpe versus ach-so-tolle #Technologieoffenheit von CxU.
Das war mir so noch gar nicht im Detail klar.
Durch die sukzessiv sinkenden EU-Flottengrenzwerte zu Emissionen von PKW ergibt sich 2035, dass PKW klimaneutral fahren müssen. Wie sie das tun, ist nicht festgelegt, sie können auch mit eFuels fahren, wenn es Hersteller dafür gibt, die einen ausreichend großen Kundenstamm haben, sodass sie #efuels mit Profit herstellen können.... tja...
Auch im GEG #GebäudeEnergieGesetz ist keine Vorschrift für Wärmepumpe, sondern statt Flottengrenzwerten wie für PKWhersteller wird es hier dem Heizungsbesitzer anheim gestellt, wie er bis zum Stichtag X die #Klimaneutralität seiner Heizung hinkriegen will. Wenn er mit #Wasserstoff liebäugelt, muss er sich ne Gemeinde suchen, die ein Wasserstoffnetz dafür gebaut hat... tja... oder Biogas oder was es sonst so gibt. Ich hoffe doch stark, dass #pelletheizung aus der "klimaneutral"-Liste gestrichen wird.
Man sollte Flottengrenzwerte auch bei Heizungsbauern, bei Installateuren per IHK oder bei Gemeinden einführen und es eben nicht dem Einzelnen überlassen, sich strategisch klug zu informieren, bevor er sich heute ne Heizung kauft.
Wir Menschen sind dumm, wir wissen es bloß nicht. Es uns persönlich zu überlassen, mit steigenden Heiz- und Spritpreisen durch #CO2preis klarzukommen, ist zum Scheitern verurteilt. Sowohl, was garantierte Budgeteinhaltung angeht – denn auf diese Weise weiß man einfach nicht, wann wer sein CO2-Verhalten ändert – als auch, was tatsächliche oder gefühlte Belastungsgrenzen angeht, was dann entweder zu richtigen Härten führt oder den Lügnern à la #Merz, #Lindner und #Weidel leichtes Spiel und Aufwind gibt.
Eine ganz, ganz dumme, natürlich neoliberalen Grundsätzen folgende Strategie im #EconObscene
https://theconversation.com/how-the-pollution-of-today-will-become-the-technofossils-of-the-far-future-248815
How the pollution of today will become the techno fossils of the far future.
The International Commission on Stratigraphy may have rejected the Anthropocene, but deep future Geologists and Palaeontologists will have no doubt that a new Epoch started here.
"Will future geologists figure out the story of a broiler chicken genetically engineered to feed relentlessly to maximize weight gain, for slaughter just five or six weeks after hatching? We suspect the fossil evidence will be damning."
But ... For the next tech civilisation to evolve and to also birth sciences like archeology, it'll need reliable harbours even more than our ancestors did. Because we utterly depleted local raw materials, those far-future societies would need globalised trade much sooner in order to develop technologies for #archeology and any other science on par with today's or even pre-industrial technology.
But #sealevelrise nips this in the bud - makes reliable harbours impossible until the next ice age 600ky from now.
Postponing the next ice age by 600ky is achieved by 1.5C w arming. A theoretical 3C warming extends this to 1mio years.
I am virtually certain tho that we'll achieve 1.5C by 2100... How? Because we're on track to 2.7C and this culture of non-solidarity kills our tech civilisation early enough for 1.5C - via CO2drawdown from rewilding, the natural and far quicker version of #CCS prescribed in hillarious #EconObscene IAM.
CO2 net worth of -0.5C is going to go into new plants once Global North is depopulated. Because it ends industrialised farming and because it frees up all land currently occupied anywhere for G-North's gluttony.
#paleontology #Anthropocene
https://phys.org/news/2025-01-im-economist-california-crisis-trigger.html
The economist doesn't let on why he thinks that the insurance crisis can trigger "broader" financial instability.
He only mentions 2008-2009 – and thinks, that's enough.
His last sentence tho lets me think, the #LAfires weren't for naught if the
" financial, cultural and entertainment center of the world" has really burnt down.
Because obviously, since we are where we are today, such a center bears lots of responsibility for why we got here.
Or did you discover a U-turn in how the "cultural and entertainment centre" depicts desirable lifestyles? It's still mansions, single family homes, car-addiction, flying and so on. No sign in the movies of sustainable living space per person, 35 square metres, +15 for each additional person.
No sign of cycling, walking, car-less activities. No talk of aviation cirrus and emitting CO2 so far up in the atmosphere.
Ah well.
You get my drift.
The irresponsible "financial, cultural and entertainment center of the world" has brought us here. It's a driving part of the #EconObscene and the #ClimateCrisis
The devastating wildfires in Los Angeles have made one threat very clear: Climate change is undermining the insurance systems American homeowners rely on to protect themselves from catastrophes. This breakdown is starting to become painfully clear as families and communities struggle to rebuild.
"Rarely have so many cities ruined by natural disasters attempted to rebuild around the same time. Hurricane reconstruction efforts are under way in North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Tennessee. Soon, Los Angeles County will be starting to rebuild. "
"As more projects get under way, escalating demand for home-building resources could course through the economy, tightening supply chains and driving up costs."
"Builders will compete for engineering resources, architectural resources and debris removal"
If POTUS " follows through on his vow to impose stiff tariffs and deport undocumented workers, rebuilding could become even more fraught. Undocumented workers comprise an estimated 13% of the construction industry, while many builders rely on imported steel, lumber and other materials that could soon be more expensive. "
Again no mention of the scientific figure for sustainable living space per person: 35 square metres.
And no mention of switching to communal appliances as opposed to each family re-buying their own washing machines or tools.
They all think that single family homes and mansions are a matter of course, not a problem wrt natural resources, minerals, biodiversity, emissions, car-dependency and so on.
Also, one might recall how the economists' model #DICE has its default setting to a couple of years in which damages from weather extremes are assumed to be fully replaced.
And if I'm not mistaken, this damage function has no setting for increasing recovery time over the decades or increasing with rising temperature. They set it once, and their model calculates with this figure all the way through to 2100.
<imagine a plethora of facepalm emojis here>
But here we are, at merely 1.5C, and the US faces shortages for rebuilding after multiple disasters within 9 months struck the South. Shortages even before the President of the United Sadists is in Office and enacts his grand scheme to end civilisation.
Good for GDP, is it?
#LAfires #EconObscene
https://www.wsj.com/business/the-battle-for-recovery-supplies-is-on-in-a-disaster-strewn-america-46d191bf
(remember: archive.ph is your friend)
Maybe, all this tragedy in #LAfires has one silver lining:
rich people were hit.
Rich means influential in the USA.
Maybe, now they raise their voices loud enough so that the USA gets her act together and sufficiently acts on #ClimateChange .
Maybe now they realize that global heating not a slow-burning thing they can outrun by their financial means.
Maybe now they realize that they depend on functioning societies across all income groups and globally.
Fortune's article above links to the original article by AccuWeather with the damage estimate of US$ 150bn .
They describe the criteria for their estimate. And those sound pretty holistic.
Although still based on the official estimate for very low numbers of destroyed structures, 10k.
So the 150bn are likely to increase. Gruesome.
But re-building is good for GDP, as economists would see it. The #Pyrocene is the #EconObscene
https://www.accuweather.com/en/press/media-advisory-accuweather-increases-estimate-of-total-damage-and-economic-loss-ascatastrophic-wildfires-in-southern-california-continue-to-ravage-the-los-angeles-area-updated-preliminary-estimate-i/1732268
anlomedad
anlomedad