Italian prosecutors state the fatal Bayesian superyacht sinking was not caused by a severe storm. The weather was a manageable squall. #Bayesian #MikeLynch #WorldNews #Italy #Maritime
https://blazetrends.com/bayesian-superyacht-sinking-not-caused-by-a-storm-prosecutors-shift-focus-to-human-error/?fsp_sid=7638
Bayesian superyacht sinking not caused by a storm: Prosecutors shift focus to human error

Italian prosecutors determined the fatal August 2024 sinking of the Bayesian superyacht was not caused by a severe storm. A preliminary report shared with Sky

Blaze Trends

The Open Inference Lab just opened!๐Ÿš€

A place for exploring statistical models, with a focus on making complex methods more transparent and easier to understand.

First post: How to handle multiple binary outcomes in a Bayesian way http://bit.ly/4ujWL8a

#statistics #bayesian #rstats

When binary outcomes move together: A Bayesian approach to multivariate analysis โ€“ The Open Inference Lab

If you want to improve pain relief and quality of life, how do you know if your treatment really works? Discover how to analyze multiple outcomes together.

New in Demographic Research: Our Bayesian multi-dimensional mortality reconstruction integrates Eurostat, DHS, UN WPP & WIC data to flexibly estimate age-, sex-, and education-specific mortality across countries. #Bayesian #Demography #popjus #iiasa #WIC
https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/54/28

@marjolica @Simon318ppm

...whose birthday, incidentally, is today.

Happy birthday, David MacKay! ๐ŸŽ‚ ๐ŸŽ“ ๐Ÿš€

MacKay was also one of the first to make clear the connection between many machine-learning algorithms, especially neural networks, and Bayesian probability theory: <https://www.inference.org.uk/mackay/PhD.html>.

His book on Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms is brilliant and full of humour: <https://www.inference.org.uk/itila/book.html>, just like his lectures: <https://videolectures.net/events/course_information_theory_pattern_recognition>.

And just as brilliant is his book "Sustainable Energy โ€“ without the hot air" which analyses in a rational way our energy and climate problem: <https://www.withouthotair.com>. See also his TED talk <https://www.ted.com/talks/david_mackay_a_reality_check_on_renewables>.

He died too soon ๐Ÿ˜ข

http://itila.blogspot.com/
https://www.eng.cam.ac.uk/news/professor-sir-david-mackay-1967-2016

#bayesian #probability #MachineLearning #cambridge #physics

David MacKay: Publications: PhD thesis

Hehehehe, we got another reviewer confused by our use of a 89% credible interval.
Cue the beauty of prime numbers! And it is my co-author's birth year, I am so happy that I can put this in the answer ๐Ÿ˜…!

#bayesian #academicchatter #bayes @rlmcelreath

There is a high probability of there being between 5 and 9 songs in this analysis of Melbourne's weather.

How many seasons does Melbourne really have?

https://seasons.lotlsoft.com/
The rweal question is :
Why does the mean of all them "appear" to happen every day ? ? ?

Nice though and way better than the Northern Hemisphere 4 thing ..

Though it needs a bigger longer data set ?

Hey BOM throw some "UX" Interface petty cash at this for every region in OCEANIA !

(( and go read up on Vasa ))

#Bayesian #analysis #weather #Melbourne #climate #indigenous
#BOM #Australia #Vasa

Melbourne Seasons

How many seasons does Melbourne really have? 75 years of weather data, analysed with changepoint detection. Explore 2 to 12 seasons interactively.

Melbourne Seasons

#statstab #522 Bayes Rules! Different priors, different posteriors

Thoughts: Nice illustration of how uninformative and informative priors change your posterior.

#bayesian #dataviz #bayes #inference #sensitivity #priors

https://www.bayesrulesbook.com/chapter-4#ch4-priors

RE: https://bayes.club/@modrak_m/116362631774641861

They're doing the Lord's work over there explaining how to do modeling to the masses (with #rstats examples)

#Bayesian modeling wisdom even #AI and #ML people should understand.