THREAT MODEL: COVID 🦠
for June 18th, 2026
by independent journalist @violetblue

- #Ebola outbreak is the 3rd largest on record: currently at 837 confirmed cases, 196 deaths

- MV Hondius's #Hantavirus #ANDV exposure quarantine period ends June 21st

- Immune dysregulation from Covid can contribute to reawakening of dormant cancer cells

- Three studies: Covid vaccination (all types) has broad cardioprotective effects

- Study: metformin taken during acute infection confirmed to help prevent Long Covid

- @ProPublica reporting on #DigitalColonialism digs into US officials conditioning aid on disclosure of private health data of millions of Africans

- @thesicktimes will host a virtual variety show for Pride on June 30th! 🏳️‍🌈 🏳️‍⚧️

...and much more.

✨THREAT MODEL is free to read -- please help keep it accessible to all by becoming a patron, even $1 a month makes a difference!✨

https://www.patreon.com/violetblue/posts/ebola-hantavirus-161406105

#ThreatModel #ThreatModelCovid #ThreatModelNewsletters #VioletBlue #COVIDnews #PublicHealth #CovidIsNotOver

THREAT MODEL: COVID 🦠
for June 11th, 2026
by independent journalist @violetblue

- #Ebola outbreak at 1 month: 635 confirmed cases (17% children), 127 confirmed deaths

- Elon Musk's destruction of #USAID directly affected scale of what will likely be the largest Ebola outbreak in history

- #Hantavirus #ANDV cases remain at 13 with 3 deaths; three patients from Omaha quarantine opt to finish quarantine period at home

- #Covid case numbers continue rising in #Taiwan & #Thailand

- 80s pop star Tiffany opens up about struggle with #LongCovid

- Elevated Covid, Long Covid, & mortality rates in American Indian & Alaska Natives (AIANs) reported in 2021-2023

- New studies on MIS-C & Covid-induced optical vascular damage in children

...and much more.

✨THREAT MODEL is free to read -- please help keep it accessible to all by becoming a patron, even $1 a month makes a difference!✨

https://www.patreon.com/violetblue/posts/pandemic-roundup-160784505

#ThreatModel #ThreatModelCovid #ThreatModelNewsletters #VioletBlue #COVIDnews #PublicHealth #CovidIsNotOver

THREAT MODEL: COVID 🦠
for June 4th, 2026
by independent journalist @violetblue

- 3 weeks after #WHO declaration, #Ebola outbreak spreads to 24 separate locations

- @STAT on Ebola: "...as of 6/1 there are 633 confirmed & suspected... #Uganda is now up to 15 cases.”

- Trump-admin-planned Ebola quarantine center (for Americans) in Kenya on hold after protests turn deadly

- #hantavirus #ANDV cases remain at 13; five exposed passengers currently in gov't quarantine to leave early

- #FDA approves oral antiviral ensitrelvir (Xocova) as post-exposure Covid prevention treatment

- Study: association found between Covid infection & increased risk for #HPV -related cancers

- Study: atypical obstructive sleep apnea common in #LongCovid

...and much more.

✨THREAT MODEL is free to read -- please help keep it accessible to all by becoming a patron, even $1 a month makes a difference!✨

https://www.patreon.com/posts/ebola-hantavirus-160101251

#ThreatModel #ThreatModelCovid #ThreatModelNewsletters #VioletBlue #COVIDnews #PublicHealth #CovidIsNotOver

THREAT MODEL: COVID 🦠
for May 28th, 2026
by independent journalist @violetblue

- #WHO has warned #Ebola outbreak is outpacing response efforts: “conditions in the #DRC are making it nearly impossible for contact tracing and containment”

- US #CDC has asked staff to volunteer for Ebola screening at ​airports

- Cases of #hantavirus #ANDV from the MV Hondius cruise ship have increased to 13

- New research: US #LongCovid cases are double that of current estimates

- New research: Covid+ vaccinated patients much less likely to infect household members

- Financial hardships due to Long Covid affect many worldwide

- Recent lull in US cases may be ending as numbers in the South start to tick up

- #WorldMaskWeek is May 25-31 🎉😷🎊

...and much more.

✨THREAT MODEL is free to read -- please help keep it accessible to all by becoming a patron, even $1 a month makes a difference!✨

https://www.patreon.com/posts/ebola-hantavirus-159447492

#ThreatModel #ThreatModelCovid #ThreatModelNewsletters #VioletBlue #COVIDnews #PublicHealth #CovidIsNotOver

THREAT MODEL: COVID 🦠
for May 21st, 2026
by independent journalist @violetblue

- Trump admin fought to block entry for US missionary doctor exposed to #Ebola , delaying his treatment (now being given in Germany)

- Trump's withdrawal from the #WHO & Musk's gutting of #USAID via #DOGE both contributing factors to scale of current Ebola outbreak

- For those exposed to #Hantavirus #ANDV onboard cruise ship MV Hondius, window for beginning to show symptoms begins now

- Terrific review of #CovidSafe indie bookstores by #WhoEvenReads

- Covid safety tips for workouts and gyms

- Frustrating WHO Covid vaccine recommendations for fall formulation

- #LeAnnRimes suffering from post-Covid health problems

- #WorldMaskWeek is May 25-31

...and much more.

✨THREAT MODEL is free to read -- please help keep it accessible to all by becoming a patron, even $1 a month makes a difference!✨

https://www.patreon.com/posts/ebola-hantavirus-158834285

#ThreatModel #ThreatModelCovid #ThreatModelNewsletters #VioletBlue #COVIDnews #PublicHealth #CovidIsNotOver

#Hantavirus #ANDV #MVHondius update about the way the virus evolved molecularly. Showtime!

From Mahan Ghafari:
"Our two-part analysis of the current MV Hondius Andes virus outbreak is now live, including reconstruction of the outbreak molecular clock dating of the closest known ancestors of the outbreak lineage."

"Part 1: outbreak sequence reconstruction and rooting"
https://virological.org/t/molecular-evolutionary-analysis-of-the-current-mv-hondius-andes-virus-outbreak/1037

"Part 2: molecular clock analysis of lineages leading to the outbreak"
https://virological.org/t/molecular-evolutionary-analysis-of-the-lineages-leading-to-the-current-mv-hondius-andes-virus-outbreak/1038

Molecular evolutionary analysis of the lineages leading to the current MV Hondius Andes virus outbreak

This is an informal analysis and is not intended as a formal preprint or manuscript in its current form.

The aim of this analysis was to estimate the timing of the closest sampled common ancestors to the lineage leading to the current outbreak and to characterise mutations accumulated on the stem branch leading to that lineage.

Overall, our results support a rodent-reservoir source within Andes virus diversity and place the closest sampled/common ancestor of the current outbreak lineage in approximately the late 1990s in the most informative M segment analysis, with a broader and older estimate from the S segment.

https://virological.org/t/molecular-evolutionary-analysis-of-the-lineages-leading-to-the-current-mv-hondius-andes-virus-outbreak/1038/1

#ANDV #AndesVirus #Hantavirus #Virology

Molecular evolutionary analysis of the lineages leading to the current MV Hondius Andes virus outbreak

Note on data use This is an informal analysis and is not intended as a formal preprint or manuscript in its current form. This post focuses on the deeper evolutionary history of the lineage leading to the current MV Hondius-associated Andes virus outbreak, using the publicly available Swiss outbreak genome PP_006WBLH.2 and PP_006XDJH.2, which we have permission to use for our analysis, as representative outbreak sequences together with other publicly available human and rodent-associated Andes ...

Virological
My memory about #hantavirus is coming back: it is not obvious that one can predict with the genetic sequence if an #ANDV can transmit from person to person. The reason is that it is hypothesised that only 12% of people who develop this zoonosis in Argentina, usually with the "colilargo" mice, can potentially transmit it to other humans (I will join the study later). Hopefully the outbreaks have happened only three times in Argentina.
As a result, generic analysis of this Andes hantavirus will not allow discriminating specific mutations.
This is all about #OneHealth perspective: genetic sequencing tons of samples is not enough. One must investigate the complete cycle of ANDV variants among humans and animals. This includes other mice than O. longicaudatus, even if they are only secondary hosts (like maybe the green moss mice).

Oh I guess I left out the word "semen" (some media have been using the word "sperm" in their headlines... Better clickbait I think) from my last toot.

#AndesVirus has been shown to persist in the male reproductive tract. The study was done on a man. I have yet to see a study of the female reproductive tract.

#AndesVirus #HantaVirus #ANDV

Good news for those who recover:

"We detected high neutralizing titers in the blood 6 years after the onset of the disease, implying a long-lasting immune response."

Not so good news for those who recover:

"...the AndesVirus persists within the reproductive tract for at least 71 months (6yr)"

Also interesting:

"Our results show that #AndesVirus has the potential for sexual transmission."

https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/15/11/2266

#HantaVirus #ANDV