Bye Bye Britain? New Evidence For AMOC Collapse
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iw9AiEG-Qww
There is another reason why leaving Shengen and the EU with Brexit was not so smart. We might get a massive migration South and find ourselves as unwanted foreigners...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
“The Amoc is a major part of the global climate system and brings sun-warmed tropical water to Europe and the Arctic, where it cools and sinks to form a deep return current. A collapse would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of people rely to grow their food, plunge western Europe into extreme cold winters and summer droughts, and add 50-100cm to already rising sea levels around the Atlantic.” 😳
Climate change update: We're far more fucked far sooner than previously assumed.
"we thought the chance of an Amoc shutdown was maybe 5%, and even then we were saying that risk is too high, given the massive impacts. Now it looks like it’s more than 50%."
New research ... found an estimated #AmocSlowdown of 42% to 58% in 2100, a level almost certain to end in #AmocCollapse .
... @rahmstorf said #Amoc slowdown in 2100 may be even greater than in the new, pessimistic assessment. This is because the computer models do not include the #meltwater from the #Greenland ice cap that is also freshening the #ocean waters: “That is one additional factor that means the reality is probably still worse.”
#ClimateCrisis
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/15/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought
Looming Instability: Ocean Current Collapse Raises Carbon Release Concerns
Scientists warn of potential collapse in Atlantic Ocean currents, like the Gulf Stream, which could raise global temperatures by 0.2°C and cause extreme weather.
#AMOCcollapse, #GulfStream, #ClimateChange, #OceanCurrents, #GlobalWarming
https://newsletter.tf/atlantic-ocean-current-collapse-carbon-release-concerns/
A potential collapse of the Atlantic Ocean's current system could raise global temperatures by 0.2°C, a significant increase that could lead to extreme weather events.
#AMOCcollapse, #GulfStream, #ClimateChange, #OceanCurrents, #GlobalWarming
https://newsletter.tf/atlantic-ocean-current-collapse-carbon-release-concerns/
@fetzert no political decision makers anywhere in the world are taking #AMOCCollapse seriously. The nationalist government of Scotland — probably the territory at most immediate and extreme risk from #AMOCShutdown — are talking about increasing oil production.
The problem with democracies addressing the #ClimateEmergency is that there's so much hysteresis in the atmosphere that by the time the consequences are bad enough to affect everyday life, it's decades too late for remedial action.
#4
I began with this project in November and the last day was in mid January. Not the longest data dig for me, but one of the longer ones. And I abandoned it unfinished.
I like it a lot.
Mostly because I like the paper by Smoulder, vanWesten et al a lot.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GL116242
Important to know where we might see Early Warning signals EWS for an imminent #AMOCcollapse. That way we can monitor the oh-shit-location more closely – and look for past behaviour in proxies.
Just recently, vanWesten's team in Utrecht published a new study that looks at an oh-shit-location in the Gulfstream.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03309-1
"Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse". You probably read about it: 2 years before convection tips into then-inevitable death in the Subpolar Gyre, the Gulfstream jumps 200km north.
Smoulder identified that wider location as well as one of her EWS zones. In my project it's called "gstream" (top right corner in each chart, in the subtitles says which zone and which season the matching pixels are for). It's a zone with far fewer matching pixels than most others. Only the zone in the North Sea has even fewer.
When I say, I abandoned the project, I mean that I did not begin to match the identified pixels with actual proxies from #paleoclimate – which is the ultimate goal of the project.
So it made me laugh when I saw the Tasmanian coral getting tied to #AMOC in the new paper in #1 and finding Tasmania in my old, dusty project. 💃🏽 🖖🏽
#3
The last one compares Era5 seasonal air temperature "t2m" with the AMOC Early Warning zones.
The audio track is @HasnainKazim playing #Mozart . He posted it ages ago on Twix. Sorry, Hasnain, the internet simply won't forget 😁
I like this one because adding the screenshot from the Smoulder supplement wasn't necessary, since the Early Warning zones for AMOC collapse light up anyway as matching pixels.
It follows the same logic as the Berkeley movie in #1.
Same_season only comparison,
at least 5 seasons have the same(-ish) °C difference year-on-year as the compared zone,
and in at least 3 decades.
Again, the bingo pixels combine matches for the zones from ErsstV6 and Era5sst.
Silkester
Pitchaya Sudbanthad
A Guy Named Brian (he/him)
Y⃒̸̷̝̜̙ͥͥͥngmar
ombra
NewsletterTF
Simon Brooke
anlomedad