Brexit Cost Explorer
Estimated GVA and household income losses across all UK regions since the 2016 referendum, built using synthetic control analysis. Brexit Cost Project.
Methodologically, the estimates on the cost of Brexit despite the heterogeneity point all in a similar direction. There are a few notable outliers, in particular the pro Brexiteer optimism. There is also a notable trend: estimates point to some form of compounding. For local...
Explore for yourself on
https://brexitcost.org/Brexit Cost Explorer
Estimated GVA and household income losses across all UK regions since the 2016 referendum, built using synthetic control analysis. Brexit Cost Project.
This is an effort that has been underway since 2020. The story of Brexit has not ended as the world is in unchartered territory. Economic and political cooperation to solve transnational challenges are more important than ever. A longer 🧵 on the results
https://x.com/EleAla/status/2067155229519294509?s=20for different spatial resolutions and different accounting concepts. You can look at how we evaluated robustness using the synthetic control permutation exercises, and likewise you can also inspect narratives and local news stories around the Brexit impact on different regions..
attributing where value added is created, something that is increasingly difficult to measure as economies become more digital service focused. AI will supercharge this and of course, it is relevant for global debates around taxation of big tech. You can see inspect estimates...
this is an attempt to make econometric work more accessible to broader audiences. You can click through different estimates at different spatial resolutions. This to me is extremely salient and relevant when we think about the role of (digital) services and the challenge with...
Its now ten years since the UK voted narrowly to Leave the European Union. I have studied how the UK got there through my research for many years now. Evidence is growing that the UK is indeed leveling up, but, by leveling down. Let me introduce the Brexit Cost project:
