Mastodawn

Hahaha, how cool! 💃🏽

These researchers took a 1300 years long temperature-related time series from corals South of Tasmania and compared them to @rahmstorf 's reconstruction of the Northern Atlantic AMOC to show how the teleconnection indicates that the NA AMOC gets its rhythm from the Southern Ocean, albeit 46 years earlier
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-01959-6
"Millennial-scale Atlantic overturning circulation led by the Southern Ocean"

Cool is that I can confirm that their odd Tasmanian coral location is indeed connected to the #AMOC, and to this day. Not only their by-46-years-removed connection, but actually tied to the same seasons.

How do I know? I took the year-on-year difference in seasonal sea surface temperature from zones with Early Warning Signals (Smoulders, vanWesten 2025 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2025GL116242, supplement figure S4)

and compared the differences to those of every pixel on land in #Berkeley Earth's data series. ^^
If a Berkeley pixel meets certain "bingo" criteria (eg., how often per decade in how many decades) they are plotted on the map.

Tasmania pops up as seasonal teleconnection to the Early Warning zones in the North Sea (!) , to near Southern and West Africa, and to South Brazil.

See #2 and #3 for more info and more pixels! 🍿

#ClimateChange #ocean #OceanCurrent

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anlomedad 15h ago

#2 So the movie above shows the °C teleconnection from any pixel on land to the Early Warning zones in the Atlantic.
A pixel got plotted if its seasonal temperature difference year-on-year matched >5 times per decade and that in at least 3 decades. The colour scale denotes the strength of the season's teleconnection.

The seasonal sea surface temperature I compared the land pixels to is from Era5 and from ErsstV6. The movie shows both comparisons merged.

Teleconnections can be immediate – as shown in the Berkeley movie. But they can also exist years and years removed. Like the Tasmanian corals in the paper in #1 which dictate AMOC strength from 46 years in the past!

I didn't go that far back ^^
But I did also compare for example the season JJA of the zones with every pixel's 4 last and 4 next seasons.

Why I did that: it bugged me that Asia only had very few pixel matches if I confine the comparison to same_season.
I couldn't believe that Siberia really had no teleconnection to one of the AMOC zones at all.

So I looked at the 8 Early Warning zones
with their teleconnected pixels on land, iterated from 4 seasons back to 4 seasons into the future.
The same "bingo" criteria applied.

And Asia lit up!
The data in this movie is not Berkeley but weather stations in #NOAA's global station network #GHCN.
These station data series had to first meet quality criteria before they entered the comparison.
This results in far fewer pixels than Berkeley would have produced in this "4x4 season" perspective.

It's rather boring to watch.
Altho not boring if you actually want to use the pixels to then search for temperature proxies for the AMOC!

To make it less boring, the audio track here is from #JesusChristSuperstar . The incredible Ian Gillan of #DeepPurple sings Jesus' prayer in the Garden of Gethsemane.
"Take this cup away from me for I don't want to taste its poison",
very apt, don't you agree, with Easter, #climateChange , AMOC collapse and all?

Want more? There's another 😁

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anlomedad 15h ago

#3
The last one compares Era5 seasonal air temperature "t2m" with the AMOC Early Warning zones.

The audio track is @HasnainKazim playing #Mozart . He posted it ages ago on Twix. Sorry, Hasnain, the internet simply won't forget 😁

I like this one because adding the screenshot from the Smoulder supplement wasn't necessary, since the Early Warning zones for AMOC collapse light up anyway as matching pixels.

It follows the same logic as the Berkeley movie in #1.
Same_season only comparison,
at least 5 seasons have the same(-ish) °C difference year-on-year as the compared zone,
and in at least 3 decades.

Again, the bingo pixels combine matches for the zones from ErsstV6 and Era5sst.

#Ocean #AMOCcollapse #ClimateChange

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anlomedad

I began with this project in November and the last day was in mid January. Not the longest data dig for me, but one of the longer ones. And I abandoned it unfinished.

I like it a lot.
Mostly because I like the paper by Smoulder, vanWesten et al a lot.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GL116242

Important to know where we might see Early Warning signals EWS for an imminent #AMOCcollapse. That way we can monitor the oh-shit-location more closely – and look for past behaviour in proxies.

Just recently, vanWesten's team in Utrecht published a new study that looks at an oh-shit-location in the Gulfstream.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03309-1
"Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse". You probably read about it: 2 years before convection tips into then-inevitable death in the Subpolar Gyre, the Gulfstream jumps 200km north.

Smoulder identified that wider location as well as one of her EWS zones. In my project it's called "gstream" (top right corner in each chart, in the subtitles says which zone and which season the matching pixels are for). It's a zone with far fewer matching pixels than most others. Only the zone in the North Sea has even fewer.

When I say, I abandoned the project, I mean that I did not begin to match the identified pixels with actual proxies from #paleoclimate – which is the ultimate goal of the project.
So it made me laugh when I saw the Tasmanian coral getting tied to #AMOC in the new paper in #1 and finding Tasmania in my old, dusty project. 💃🏽 🖖🏽