Jay Ulfelder

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Research project manager at Nonviolent Action Lab, Ash Center, Harvard Kennedy School. Posting in my individual capacity.

Mostly working on Crowd Counting Consortium (CCC) with Erica Chenoweth (Harvard) and Jeremy Pressman (UConn) and a rotating cast of RAs. Making and analyzing open event data on political protest activity across the U.S.

Mixed-methods social scientist. Antifascist.

he/him

#protest #democracy #ContentiousPolitics #SocialMovements #PoliticalScience #rstats

CCC GitHub repohttps://github.com/nonviolent-action-lab/crowd-counting-consortium
dormant bloghttps://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/
mostly-accurate Wikipedia shadowhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Ulfelder
What stage of capitalism is this?

Plotting CCC data on U.S. protests for climate action or environmental protection for the first time in a while, and I see three clear phases here: 1) school strikes era (2017-2019), with low base rate but huge peaks; 2) COVID break (2020-2021); and 3) accelerating action in tandem with spiraling climate crisis (2021-).

#protest #environment #climate

New post by me on the Crowd Counting Consortium blog summarizing our data so far on LGBTQ+ pride events across the United States over the past 10 weeks.

tl;dr; as the title says, love won

https://countingcrowds.org/2023/07/03/love-won/

#LGBTQ #queer #protest #pride

Love Won

After a year that saw historic levels of anti-LGBTQ+ protest activity, legislative action, and online jawboning, millions of people turned out in May and June 2023 for hundreds of LGBTQ+ pride cele…

Counting Crowds

In its new report on hate and extremism in 2022, Southern Poverty Law Center notes that Proud Boys "targeted more than 40 LGBTQ events in 2022 through harassment or protests."

It was worse than that: Crowd Counting Consortium saw Proud Boys at 58 anti-LGBTQ+ events last year, and they continue to turn up at them in 2023.

#protest #LGBTQ #queer #ProudBoys #SPLC

A word cloud of the terms in all the verbatim signs and chants we recorded gives a fuller feel for the variety of claims, many of which were in Spanish.

Unsurprisingly, "workers" and "rights" were the most common terms, but "immigrant" and "legalization" also appeared frequently, as did the chant "El pueblo unido jamas sera vencido!"

May Day events across the U.S. in 2023 raised a wide variety of issues in addition to workers' rights.

CCC has recorded 59 events in celebration of International Workers Day in 2023, and as the chart below shows, participants' signs and chants from those 59 events touched on most of the political themes we track.

#protest #MayDay

Armed protests have been a bit less frequent so far in 2023 than they were in the latter half of 2022, according to CCC data, and that's true for both left-wing and right-wing events.

Frankly, I'm not sure what to make of that trendlet. It doesn't feel like the rhetoric's cooled at all, and guns haven't gone anywhere. But people seem to be bringing them to protest events a bit less often so far this year.

Now we'll see what happens to that trend as Pride Month gets underway...

#protest #guns

I expanded the post a bit this morning with an updated version of a chart from a previous one.

I think it's important to note that this year's historic turnout for TDOV is part of a broader and still-swelling wave of activism for LGBTQIA+ rights in the U.S. in response to a torrent of reactionary legislation and protest activity.

Things are definitely getting worse in numerous states, but people are not taking these reactionary attacks lying down.

New post by me for the Crowd Counting Consortium blog summarizing what we've collected so far on this year's historic wave of Transgender Day of Visibility (TDOV) actions in the U.S.

Thousands of people gathered at nearly 180 events in 155 cities and towns across 49 states. The only state missing from the lineup at this point is Wyoming, and it's quite possible something happened there that we just haven't seen yet.

https://countingcrowds.org/2023/04/02/2023-trans-day-of-visibility/

#tdov #queer #LGBTQ #protest

2023 Trans Day of Visibility

Counting Crowds
Roughly 1,000 folks at yesterday's DC march and rally for queer and trans youth autonomy, organized by Queer Youth Assemble and Human Rights Campaign. QYA is a relatively new, youth-led organization that put out a call for marches nationwide on this year's TDOV just a couple of months ago, and we saw well over 100 affiliated actions yesterday across all 50 states. Really impressive, and evidence of how the reactionary anti-LGBTQIA+ wave is catalyzing a strong counter. #TDOV #LGBTQ #queer