Andy Baio

Prediction: Mastodon will likely outlast Twitter.

Historically, decentralized, open-source platforms and protocols with any adoption run forever, even if they rarely reach the popularity or cultural relevance of centralized platforms.

It seems likely to me that when Twitter eventually shuts down, people will still be running Mastodon instances.

Did you know Diaspora has 328 active nodes and 17k users? Hell, there are 3,652 active FidoNet nodes, and that started in 1984!

So... am I wrong?

Apr 7, 2017 at 10:38pmWeb
Show threadAndy BaioApr 7, 2017

TO BE CLEAR, I'm not saying that Mastodon will have any impact on Twitter whatsoever.

The idea of a social network "beating" another social network is ridiculous.

Show threadcleeApr 7, 2017
@andybaio Hmm, I don't know about that last sentence. MySpace? Friendster? Diaspora? Ning?
Show threadAndy BaioApr 7, 2017
@clee Myspace, Friendster, and Ning were all centralized and dead. Diaspora is decentralized and still around.
Show threadcleeApr 7, 2017
@andybaio I haven't heard anything about Diaspora in years, so that's surprising to me, but good on them! I guess my point is, centralized social networks can certainly die.
Show threadAndy BaioApr 7, 2017
@clee Right, that's exactly what I'm saying. Centralized social networks all die eventually, and decentralized networks rarely do.
Show threadcleeApr 7, 2017
@andybaio I'm agreeing with you very hard right now.
Show threadmicshaApr 7, 2017
@andybaio They kind of fill their own niches.
Show threadPepper 🐙Apr 7, 2017
@andybaio but we've seen that happen with IG stories and Snapchat. Though still early days with Twitter/Mastodon.
Show threadMike ChapmanApr 7, 2017
@andybaio Twitter has its place but I don't consider it to be very "social."
Show threadEric OesterleApr 8, 2017
@andybaio Probably right, given Twitter's constraints on evolution. Facebook is more likely to respond and innovate.
Show thread301 [email protected]Apr 8, 2017

@andybaio I'm confused. You're saying that social media are not masked Mexican wrestlers?

That explains why that Santo guy is so confused when I tell him about my lunch and show him pictures of cheese.

Show threadZee AlexanderApr 8, 2017
@andybaio I'm not sure it's "ridiculous" since it's clearly happened in meaningful ways several times, buuuut "beating another" doesn't have to be the only mode of success :)
Show threadAndrew RaffApr 8, 2017
@andybaio It's not that Mastodon will cause Twitter's demise, but Mastodon may survive if Twitter implodes.
Show threadMichael_SpencerApr 8, 2017
@andybaio My new analogy is a bit like ~ What if Tumblr and Twitter had a baby. The fact that it looks like "TweetDeck" is pretty hilarious to me though. It's a bit like the experience of IM in a video game meets interactive tagging.
Show threadJosh "cortex" MillardApr 7, 2017
@andybaio You are not wrong, though I think most of the chatter (however inane) about Mastodon: Twitter Killer Or Flash In The Pan? isn't really engaging with that question. For folks orienting Mastodon as the latest entrant in an all-or-nothing corporate tech rivalry, "it's got basic legs and people will keep using it because it's nice" isn't one of the narrative paths on the table.
Show threadJosh "cortex" MillardApr 7, 2017
@andybaio I mean, shit, email is enormously successful and has a tremendous installed user base and is the least sexy thing in the world that nobody is ever going to put up against a newer tech as a narrative combatant. When was the last time email was in its own right even any sort of news? Launch of Gmail? Eventually it's just fish saying "what's water", just a band that's perfectly good and never breaks up but never hits the top 40 charts.
Show threadRusty 🦑Apr 7, 2017
@joshmillard @andybaio email cyclically gets press as "the next big thing that's always been here," most recently in the form of newsletters and before that political fundraising.
Show threadDan HonApr 7, 2017
Um Slack and Google Wave? @joshmillard @andybaio
Show threadAndy BaioApr 7, 2017
@Danhon @joshmillard what about 'em
Show threadDan HonApr 7, 2017
Oh wait, I misunderstood. @andybaio @joshmillard
Show threadAndy BaioApr 7, 2017
@joshmillard Agreed. The tech press is all about the zero-sum game. Makes for a better story.
Show thread0xADADAApr 7, 2017
@andybaio @joshmillard this is the real story about mastodon, not the false competition between Twitter and mastodon
Show thread🔜@[email protected]Apr 7, 2017
@andybaio [sent from usenet]
Show threadAndrew Roach ✅Apr 7, 2017
@andybaio I LOVE That there are still fidonet nodes out there.
Show threadOracle(tm) e-Business Social 🎃Apr 7, 2017
@andybaio long live gnu social
Show threadSamuel Hodgkins (samis) 🍄Apr 7, 2017
@andybaio I'd say it's more likely for Mastodon's underlying protocols to outlive twitter vs the Mastodon software itself.
Show thread✧✦Catherine✦✧Apr 7, 2017
@andybaio wow, fidonet still exists, now I have not been expecting that
Show threadphildini @ xoxoApr 7, 2017

@andybaio the continued existence of IRC would seem to prove you right.

The continued existence of Usenet might make you double-right.

Show thread🏴‍☠️🏴‍☠️KODO🏴‍☠️🏴‍☠️Apr 7, 2017
@phildini usenet is still the best platform for pirated material
Show thread🏴‍☠️🏴‍☠️KODO🏴‍☠️🏴‍☠️Apr 7, 2017
@phildini not that i have any experience....
Show threadphildini @ xoxoApr 7, 2017
@kodo dudes in my dorm in college would definitely agree with you. :joy:
Show threadmulanderApr 7, 2017
@phildini @andybaio XMPP makes him right. I still run a server even though the protocol is over-complicated and *really* dead compared to IRC.
Show thread🏴‍☠️🏴‍☠️KODO🏴‍☠️🏴‍☠️Apr 7, 2017
@mulander xmpp is actually a really good technology, although i use matrix now-a-days since it seems like xmpp++
Show threadmulanderApr 7, 2017

@kodo Sure. The problem with XMPP was fragmentation and having crucial features as XEP extensions. This plus how late TLS caught on in nod federation made it a real sub-par experience both client-side for users and server side for people running servers.

I *run* an XMPP server and don't even care to log in to my accounts as I no longer have anyone to talk with...

Show threadSpyou ⏚Apr 7, 2017
@andybaio w00t ?? 3652 fidonet nodes STILL active ?
Show threadDanny O'BApr 7, 2017
@andybaio yeah, I remember writing about Bitcoin for the first time, and realising that I was hitting the same failure of my own imagination -- I could not imagine them succeeding with the ambition levels of some people involved, but at the same time I couldn't actually define what "failure" would look like, because I couldn't imagine absolute extinction
Show thread🏴‍☠️🏴‍☠️KODO🏴‍☠️🏴‍☠️Apr 7, 2017
@mala I think the only reason bitcoin sprung back in price is because it's impossible to kill and people were starting to realize that
Show threadDanny O'BApr 7, 2017
@kodo well, never say *impossible* but certainly quite hard to imagine/improbable. Again, that doesn't mean that the end isn't just 11000 hardcore bitcoin fans having their annual conference in Boise, Idaho. But it's not /absolute disappearence/. Plus things sometimes kick off again (*cough* identi.ca *cough* GNU Social)
Show thread🏴‍☠️🏴‍☠️KODO🏴‍☠️🏴‍☠️Apr 7, 2017
@mala even if that happens it's still working flawlessly. I think there is this silicon valley false idea that unless you have 'users' you haven't 'made it'
Show threadParker HigginsApr 7, 2017
@mala @andybaio We're so used to thinking of tech platforms/protocols as having a SPOF when a corporate entity shuts down, but I think that's really the exception now. Nothing ever goes through "absolute extinction", for the most part
Show threadDanny O'BApr 7, 2017
@xor @andybaio I think this is what Kevin Kelly (PBUH) was talking about when he said that technologies never die
Show threadChris MartinApr 7, 2017
@andybaio My prediction is that the company will get bought and Twitter will be absorbed into another service, so I don't think there will be a point when it "shuts down".
Show thread🏴‍☠️🏴‍☠️KODO🏴‍☠️🏴‍☠️Apr 7, 2017
@chris_martin or it gets bought and they shut it down immediately like most things
Show threadAlessio Biancalana 💻Apr 7, 2017
@andybaio every strategy is successful given infinite resources
Show threadGoing T. MaineApr 7, 2017
@andybaio There's a distance between existing and surviving. How active are the diaspora users? How active are the fidonet users?
Show threadSydneyEFalkApr 8, 2017

@andybaio I don't think you're wrong, but I feel like that's not quite the point.

I mean, there were people still running that network-glue whatever to play Halo 1 when XBox started the first iteration of Live, and there probably still are, somewhere. Nothing wrong with that -- use it if it works is my motto.

However, I think Twitter would shutter (heh, tonguetwister, that) only because it has a minimum profitability to hit.

Show threadSydneyEFalkApr 8, 2017

@andybaio

I think what I'm trying to say is this:

The utility of decentralization and open-source aspects of Mastodon are far more interesting to me than levels of adoption (tho those interest me as well), because levels of adoption aren't only a factor of ubiquity, they're also based heavily in utility.

Frex, if the Twitter codebase leaks, people will run that, somewhere, somehow, somewhen. It still won't approach the same utility, though.

Show threadSydneyEFalkApr 8, 2017

@andybaio In short (hopefully!): I think you're right, I'm not sure that aspect is as relevant as people tend to assume, and regardless, an explosion of Mastodon instances is way more interesting, from a tech/culture interface standpoint, than that it might 'beat Twitter' in specific ways.

(I'm sorry if this seems brusque, I'm half responding, half rambling at this point. My wife is setting up a backup server in the house, and I'm playing fetch-disk between her office and mine.)

Show threadColin MahnsApr 8, 2017

@andybaio @munin don't think you are wrong at all. i think however that this will remain a niche thing for tech savvy users and nothing more. irc networks for example are still widely popular with tech types but have no love outside this group in the mainstream, for legitimate reasons.

the decentralized floss protocols tend to be counter intuitive to modern users, preventing adoption. it'll be nice knowing this network will have a life of its own though :)

Show threadtonxApr 8, 2017
@andybaio I think this is right, if only because Twitter keeps finding ways to hasten its own extinction.
Show threadRyan Lee Sipes ⚡🦅Apr 8, 2017
@andybaio I think this platform has legs! All of Twitter's good parts, without the bad IMO. It'll at least draw a bunch of the engineers and devs from G+
Show threadJaycie (Squid Mode)Apr 8, 2017
@andybaio Case in point: IRC.
Show threadHishamApr 8, 2017

@andybaio Are the 17k active users or does it include people like me who created an account 5 years ago and logged once every 2.5 years?

Also... FidoNet!? Do they use it over the internet nowadays??

Show threadAndy BaioApr 8, 2017
@hisham_hm that 17k stat is users active in the last month, they have at least 670k registered accounts https://the-federation.info/
Show threadPaul Phillips ✅Apr 8, 2017
@andybaio The funny shaped rock in my front yard will certainly outlast twitter. This isn't newsworthy because many millions of people use twitter and only a small handful of people have found anything they can do with my rock.
Show threadthat cms guyApr 8, 2017
@andybaio The only countering play is - big internet behemoth makes compelling alternative free web based client for decentralized platform, adds proprietary features in an classic "embrace, extend, extinguish" play, and that's still really tough to pull off completely, even when you're gmail
Show threadMichal Migurski 🍉Apr 8, 2017
@andybaio This seems trivially true to me. Running Twitter is a central business decision: it’ll stay up until it’s no longer supportable, and then it will go away. Running Mastodon is a distributed hobby decision: any single holdout instance would prove your prediction, even one sitting on a long-forgotten server the same way people pull on ethernet cables to discover SMTP boxes they’ve accidentally hidden behind drywall.
Show threadMichal Migurski 🍉Apr 8, 2017

@andybaio …more interesting is what decline will look like for Twitter. Will it be like the 6A Vox.com, like Livejournal, like Pownce, or something else? Out with a bang or a whimper?

I'm conflicted about my enjoyment of Mastodon. Twitter is very significant and important in my life, since I don't use FB or Instagram. The idea of decentralized is appealing, but I still always choose my Verizon service over my Ham license for normal communication.

Show threadLes OrchardApr 8, 2017

@migurski @andybaio "I still always choose my Verizon service over my Ham license for normal communication."

Heh, I had semi-pretentious thoughts like this on ye olde blog a few years ago

https://blog.lmorchard.com/2014/10/08/microblogging-like-its-2002/#Party_Like_it8217s_2002

Show threadluisbg :coffee:Apr 8, 2017
@andybaio just think of IRC. Which is also somewhat decentralized, certainly open source and community run