Andy BaioApr 7, 2017

Prediction: Mastodon will likely outlast Twitter.

Historically, decentralized, open-source platforms and protocols with any adoption run forever, even if they rarely reach the popularity or cultural relevance of centralized platforms.

It seems likely to me that when Twitter eventually shuts down, people will still be running Mastodon instances.

Did you know Diaspora has 328 active nodes and 17k users? Hell, there are 3,652 active FidoNet nodes, and that started in 1984!

So... am I wrong?

Show threadAndy BaioApr 7, 2017

TO BE CLEAR, I'm not saying that Mastodon will have any impact on Twitter whatsoever.

The idea of a social network "beating" another social network is ridiculous.

Show threadcleeApr 7, 2017
@andybaio Hmm, I don't know about that last sentence. MySpace? Friendster? Diaspora? Ning?
Show threadAndy BaioApr 7, 2017
@clee Myspace, Friendster, and Ning were all centralized and dead. Diaspora is decentralized and still around.
Show threadclee
@andybaio I haven't heard anything about Diaspora in years, so that's surprising to me, but good on them! I guess my point is, centralized social networks can certainly die.
Apr 7, 2017 at 10:43pmWeb
Show threadAndy BaioApr 7, 2017
@clee Right, that's exactly what I'm saying. Centralized social networks all die eventually, and decentralized networks rarely do.
Show threadcleeApr 7, 2017
@andybaio I'm agreeing with you very hard right now.