Prediction: Mastodon will likely outlast Twitter.

Historically, decentralized, open-source platforms and protocols with any adoption run forever, even if they rarely reach the popularity or cultural relevance of centralized platforms.

It seems likely to me that when Twitter eventually shuts down, people will still be running Mastodon instances.

Did you know Diaspora has 328 active nodes and 17k users? Hell, there are 3,652 active FidoNet nodes, and that started in 1984!

So... am I wrong?

TO BE CLEAR, I'm not saying that Mastodon will have any impact on Twitter whatsoever.

The idea of a social network "beating" another social network is ridiculous.

@andybaio I'm not sure it's "ridiculous" since it's clearly happened in meaningful ways several times, buuuut "beating another" doesn't have to be the only mode of success :)