Prediction: Mastodon will likely outlast Twitter.

Historically, decentralized, open-source platforms and protocols with any adoption run forever, even if they rarely reach the popularity or cultural relevance of centralized platforms.

It seems likely to me that when Twitter eventually shuts down, people will still be running Mastodon instances.

Did you know Diaspora has 328 active nodes and 17k users? Hell, there are 3,652 active FidoNet nodes, and that started in 1984!

So... am I wrong?

@andybaio the continued existence of IRC would seem to prove you right.

The continued existence of Usenet might make you double-right.

@phildini @andybaio XMPP makes him right. I still run a server even though the protocol is over-complicated and *really* dead compared to IRC.
@mulander xmpp is actually a really good technology, although i use matrix now-a-days since it seems like xmpp++

@kodo Sure. The problem with XMPP was fragmentation and having crucial features as XEP extensions. This plus how late TLS caught on in nod federation made it a real sub-par experience both client-side for users and server side for people running servers.

I *run* an XMPP server and don't even care to log in to my accounts as I no longer have anyone to talk with...