Mastodawn

Here's a scenario to consider:

1. Xi Jinping decides the time is right to invade Taiwan.
2. With many US forces concentrated in the Middle East, & cruise missiles & smart bombs in reduced supply, the US can’t respond effectively.
3. The invasion of Taiwan, successful or not, cuts off US access to advanced chips (90% made in Taiwan)
4. US tech stocks are wiped out, the US economy goes into freefall.
5. US becomes Russia 2.0: a failed state with a mad dictator, nukes & an economy in shreds.

MattChippytea Feb 28

@angusm well that’s cheered me up no end… /s

@Wifiwits @angusm At least there’s a light at the end of the tunnel!

🍀March Mastodoness🍀Mar 1

@su_liam @Wifiwits @angusm That light being the blaze and radiation coming from nuclear fallout, I assume?

@mast0d0nphan @Wifiwits @angusm The metaphor would be the train, but yeah pretty much.

Bogdan Buduroiu Feb 28

@angusm that's a really shoddy analysis.

Invading Taiwan would require massive blood drives, preparation of staging areas, etc. in China.

China's A2D is already good enough that whether the USN is deployed somewhere else is kinda irrelevant.

Time is on China's side, they really don't have to rush this.

Charlie Stross Feb 28

@angusm Ahem! (Wasn't that mine, from the other place?)

Ben Aveling Feb 28

Probably. I first encountered much the same story in an unpublished piece not quite 30 years ago. Good ideas are eternal. @cstross @angusm

Angus McIntyre Feb 28

@cstross If “the other place” is a listserv beginning with P, what I posted here was what I originally posted there (complete with speculation about a Taiwanese chipocalypse ), starting the thread. You replied to a reply to my post that had been edited to remove the Taiwan angle, so your follow-up duplicated my original suggestion. Great minds, and all that.

But maybe you had some other Other Place in mind?

For the record, I don’t REALLY think Pooh Bear will invade TW today … but who knows?

Charlie Stross Feb 28

@angusm Oh, I missed your OP!

@cstross @angusm The Bad Place?

@angusm the plan of "actually invest in your industrial base" and "just watch them corruptly shoot themselves in the foot while leadership strips the copper out of everything" paying massive dividends... Don't even think that would be necessary tbh

Nol Malone ☭Mar 1

@cykonot @angusm This. 💯 They are already winning. Why lift a finger?

🥑 Yours Truly! Unruly 🇨🇦🇪🇺🇺🇦🌻Feb 28

China is content to watch everyone else murder each other.

DeterioratedStucco Feb 28

@unruly
I'm curious to know what they should do to stop it.

🥑 Yours Truly! Unruly 🇨🇦🇪🇺🇺🇦🌻Feb 28

@SoftwareTheron @angusm

China decides what China does. From what I read, China contents itself to stand by while others wage war against each other. China's opportunism seems to be usually focused on its own country's material benefit more than being driven by ideology, at list at this point in history.

DeterioratedStucco Feb 28

@unruly
So what are you complaining about here, exactly?
Why mention China at all?

🥑 Yours Truly! Unruly 🇨🇦🇪🇺🇺🇦🌻Feb 28

@SoftwareTheron @angusm

LOL No complaint here. The toot, the conversation, was about China.

DeterioratedStucco Mar 1

@unruly
I do apologise. Somehow I got entirely the wrong end of the stick.

🥑 Yours Truly! Unruly 🇨🇦🇪🇺🇺🇦🌻Mar 1

@SoftwareTheron @angusm

No worries. No problem. We are free to speak and free to listen, or not, here. All the best.

🥑 Yours Truly! Unruly 🇨🇦🇪🇺🇺🇦🌻Feb 28

@SoftwareTheron @angusm

Maybe I misunderstood. Who do you mean by "they"? in "What they should do to stop it."

Thanks!

WellsiteGeo Feb 28

Have you been listening under the Tangerine Shitgibbon's window again?

The Penguin of Evil Feb 28

@angusm Xi would be better of just selling missiles to Iran for oil and gas and getting free equipment tests at mostly US expense.

Nol Malone ☭Mar 1

@etchedpixels @angusm Truth. 😆

Yrjänä Rankka 🌻Feb 28

@angusm Ahh the US of A - 50 failed states with an army big enough to fight god.

@ghard @angusm You mean the army that lost to sheepherders with AK-47s maintained by village blacksmiths?

Before it lost it killed millions and determined the fate of the region for the next several generations. This is not a good thing of course but it's worth not underselling the impact.

@komali_2 I would never undersell the capacity of malicious stupidity to do harm.

Paco Hope Feb 28

@angusm Keep your voice down. Do you want them to HEAR you? Don’t give them ideas!

(Sadly this is insightful and terrifyingly possible)

@paco @angusm Surely they've already thought about it. Now 12-15% (depending on source) of Chinese exports go to the US, and maybe they don't want to lose that.

Paco Hope Mar 1

@mansr I dunno. If they thought about the impacts of their actions this time, it would be the first time.

We have basically no evidence that they think about long term consequences. No one capable of looking into the future even a little bit would do what they do.

@angusm At least this would offer an excellent excuse for the US tech industry to back out of this moronic AI bubble.

Sir David Nielsen Feb 28

@angusm @cstross don’t threaten me with a good time.

Nol Malone ☭Mar 1

@DavidNielsen @angusm @cstross Exactly what I was thinking 😆. But seriously, China doesn't have to lift a finger, the US is already imploding.

lord pthenq1 Feb 28

@angusm The United States has a doctrine that allows it to fight on two fronts at the same time

@pthenq1 @angusm Afghanistan and Minneapolis?

Nol Malone ☭Mar 1

@su_liam @pthenq1 @angusm This killed me. 😆💀

Alper Çuğun-Gscheidel Feb 28

@angusm Love it.

nickapos Feb 28

@angusm I have a feeling that even though this is a realistic scenario, China will not do it opportunistically. It seems to me they are the most strategic from the world powers.

Very Human Robot Feb 28

@angusm
Here's a scenario to consider:
There's 100 miles of sea between China and Taiwan.
China doesn't have nearly enough troop transports to get an invasion force across.
"Fishing boat armada" would be sitting ducks for missiles or even just rocket strikes.
Here's hoping Taiwan has enough of those...

Angus McIntyre Feb 28

@StompyRobot The consensus is that China doesn't have everything it needs TODAY (and so my ‘scenario’ wasn't entirely serious). But it has far more than a “fishing boat armada". They’ve been building a full invasion fleet with tank-landing barges, helicopter carriers, & civilian ferries that double as (and regularly exercise as) tank/troop transports.

Supposedly, Xi wants it all ready by next year. They might decide to invade, they might not, but they are VERY serious about being ABLE to do it.

Very Human Robot Feb 28

@angusm yeah, fair!
100 miles of moat is still a lot, though.

Oberst Enzian Feb 28

@angusm Yes please!!!!

Fahri Reza 🍉Feb 28

@angusm China can't invade its own territory, recognized even by the US, even though they sell weapons behind their back

See the empire before the trees

@dozymoe good morning, I just stepped outside my apartment in Taipei, I'm looking around, strange, there's not a single sign of the CPC here. Nor the PLA. Almost as if there's not a single CPC bureaucrat here, or PLA boot.

How bizarre to not have sovereignty over your territory. How bizarre to have an entire sovereign country full of citizens of that country, living on your territory. An imperialist's nightmare!

ROTOPE~1 ⭐️Feb 28

@angusm okay, but what's the worst case scenario?

Angus McIntyre Feb 28

@rotopenguin The worst-case scenario is that RFK jr & Dr. Oz carry out an unspeakable ritual involving freshly-gathered roadkill, the blood of virgins, and a signed copy of "Mein Kampf" to make Trump immortal. As the Undying Orange Emperor, he then rules over a post-nuclear wasteland populated by mutants, telepathic land squid, and clones of Kash Patel, with a cyborg Pam Bondi as his Empress.

Also, owing to chip shortages, I don't get to replace my computer when the one I have now finally dies.

@angusm Horizon Zero Dawn has shown us the way. Hunt the robots and data centers for parts.

Essexman Feb 28

@angusm isn’t it there already?

derptron Feb 28

@essexman @angusm Probably. We'll know for sure when Trump isn't stopped as he takes over and corrupts the election process.

@angusm We’re pretty much at 5, so… 4,3,2,1, go?

Ein „Primat“Feb 28

@angusm @LordCaramac luvely 😍

Lord Caramac the Clueless, KSC Feb 28

@angusm As soon as mainland Chinese soldiers invade Taiwan, TSMC will explode all the explosive charges on their machines so the technology doesn't fall into Chinese hands. The biggest semiconductor manufacturer on this planet will be wiped out. No more latest generation CPUs, CPUs, RAM chips, etc.

Angus McIntyre Feb 28

@LordCaramac On the bright side, at least we won't have to listen to Sam Altman and friends blethering about AGI.

@angusm chillig

@angusm dont let xi jinping see

@angusm Or China just manufactures its own high-end chips and out-competes Taiwan? A much simpler plan

Auntie Mame Mar 1

@angusm Don’t listen to the American fear monger if of China. China will not invade Taiwan. They’re more sensible than that.

@angusm sounds like the perfect scenario that we can all get behind. Except China isn't dumb as the west want them to be, because west always act like MAGA when looking out of their part of the world - every accusation is a confession.

@htpcnz those of us in Taiwan aren't really a fan of this plan. Taiwan prefers the self determination it wrested from the hands of a military dictatorship in the 90s *not* to be taken away from it by imperialists.