Angus McIntyreFeb 28

Here's a scenario to consider:

1. Xi Jinping decides the time is right to invade Taiwan.
2. With many US forces concentrated in the Middle East, & cruise missiles & smart bombs in reduced supply, the US can’t respond effectively.
3. The invasion of Taiwan, successful or not, cuts off US access to advanced chips (90% made in Taiwan)
4. US tech stocks are wiped out, the US economy goes into freefall.
5. US becomes Russia 2.0: a failed state with a mad dictator, nukes & an economy in shreds.

Show threadVery Human Robot
@angusm
Here's a scenario to consider:
There's 100 miles of sea between China and Taiwan.
China doesn't have nearly enough troop transports to get an invasion force across.
"Fishing boat armada" would be sitting ducks for missiles or even just rocket strikes.
Here's hoping Taiwan has enough of those...
Feb 28 at 8:22pmWeb
Show threadAngus McIntyreFeb 28

@StompyRobot The consensus is that China doesn't have everything it needs TODAY (and so my ‘scenario’ wasn't entirely serious). But it has far more than a “fishing boat armada". They’ve been building a full invasion fleet with tank-landing barges, helicopter carriers, & civilian ferries that double as (and regularly exercise as) tank/troop transports.

Supposedly, Xi wants it all ready by next year. They might decide to invade, they might not, but they are VERY serious about being ABLE to do it.

Show threadVery Human RobotFeb 28
@angusm yeah, fair!
100 miles of moat is still a lot, though.