US farmers are saying they "just need temporary help, until things get better."
Here's the thing. US farm exports- which are mostly soy- CANNOT get better.
Other countries expanded their soy industries to fill China's demand.
We've walled ourselves out of the global market, folks. This is it.
The thing is, this isn't even the first time US ag has wrecked itself with foolish trade wars.
In the runup to the Civil War, US cotton plantations decided to stop exporting cotton. Why?
Because the British Empire's textile mills ran on cotton from US plantations.
Without Southern cotton, the British textile industry would be brought to its knees.
And that would force the British Empire- with the world's most powerful navy- to help the US South in its fight for "freedom."
At least, that's what cotton plantation owners THOUGHT would happen.
What actually happened? Egyptian cotton.
With lots of fertile farmland and desperate for something to sell for cash on international markets,
Egypt's leadership dumped resources into building up cotton farming in Egypt.
By the time the US Civil War was over, so was the US cotton industry.
Egypt had ramped up to growing so much cotton, nobody really needed any from the US South anymore.
This is why "Egyptian cotton" is a thing now!
Egypt grew a little cotton before all that, but not a "main export industry & household name" amount.
This is why it's so important that US agriculture quit its "positive vibes only!" strategy and actually learn from its own mistakes.
So we can stop repeating them already.
Anyway, here's the next Egyptian cotton: Argentine & Brazilian soybeans.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/us-soybean-exports-to-china-drop-to-zero-argentina-and-brazil-win/
Ope this is going off
Ok folks! My Congressman is a MAGA clown who's on multiple ag committees.
As a farmer, I need ag policymakers with a spine who tell Trump no.
So for every donation to Kim Hardy, who's running against my
Congressman, I will post one (1) ag fact.
Farm fact: the South is famous for clayey red soil, but a lot of it is actually... sand. Like beach sand. See the yellow on the map here.
Why? It IS beach sand. That's where the shoreline was during the Cretaceous.
This has Certain Consequences for agriculture in the South!
Your classic grain belt-type farming- grain, silos, tractors, livestock to eat all the grain- is what the US considers "real farming."
And it likes big flat plains.
So when there's big flat plains in the US, that's kinda what we like to do.
But in the South? Our big flat plains are mostly deep, DEEP coastal sand.
And grain DOESN'T LIKE SAND
We aren't gonna thrive trying to play the Midwest's game on sand y'all. What are we doing
Attempting to farm Midwest-style on sand has led a lot of people to describe Southern soils as "bad."
This is false. Slanderous, even.
Sand is great!
Root crops love it! It's soft! Long skinny roots like carrots can push downward without hitting rocks or clay pans & turning into this
Trees like "well drained soil," which is just fancy words for "it doesn't get soggy."
Nothing stays un-soggy like sand. Every time it rains, the water runs right through it like a sieve.
Yeah that's annoying sometimes! If it STOPS raining for a week the crops panic!
But it sure is well-drained
Ok farm facts are back!
China is so much of the global soybean market, you can't make up losing them by selling to other countries. There isn't enough soybean demand in the world to fill that dent.
And farmers... know that.
And it's just not likely to get better anytime soon.
The first time the US started a trade war with China... what can I say. They noticed. They worked with other countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay to buy their crops & invest in growing more of them.
A helpful primer on how major soybean buyers like China are viewing the US's new penchant for trade wars.
Really appreciate the writers' commitment to breaking it down so a 5-year-old can understand it
https://asiatimes.com/2025/09/brazil-will-remain-chinas-preferred-soybean-supplier-not-the-us/
Anyway, here's what this all means.
US soybean farmers have two options.
Grow something else, or get welfare checks forever.
There is no third option.
So which option are US farmers leaning toward?
Let me put it this way: I haven't run across anyone saying "I'm thinking of growing something else" yet.
They're surely out there, but not amongst the chosen spokespeople of the sector.
When I ran for office in 2024 (NC Commissioner of Agriculture), I ran on a platform of "We need to stop making our state's farms all about cheap bulk crops for China."
I said it a little nicer than that. But there's a reason that was my platform.
@sarahtaber You are teaching me about big subjects I know nothing about. Will you answer or clarify as we read along?
When you say āfarm sectorā do you mean industrialized farming or individual farmers? (I understand those groups may overlap.)
@sarahtaber according to this guy they can't grow anything else without taking a big financial hit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mB5PqWhQeY
(Alas, he did not credit you.)
Have they considered going into the solar and wind power business?
I've seen those reports, but I was also needling the trump aligned conservatives as trump hates windmills, and is working to destroy solar because he loves seeing things destroyed by fossil fuels.
@sarahtaber What if Americans start eating a lot more tofu and/or soy milk?
Not that I think it will ever happen, or that domestic demand could completely replace Chinese demand, but hypothetically speaking.
@faoluin @sarahtaber well presumably combined with subsidies a whole two farms might remain viable.
Of course the problem there is the regime that would have to encourage that is the very same people who've spent the last decade or so in a moral outrage about specifically soy and how it turns people soft or sperm count or something, and are openly calling for public executions of the tofu eating woke.
@sarahtaber Hello from France. People here are also trying to reduce their dependency on American companies for just the same reason - because the United States has shown that it will cheat and lie and use any leverage it can to gain an unfair advantage over the rest of the world.
In a bar the other night, I ordered a New England IPA and then said, "Wait, it's not American, is it?" and the barman looked stricken and said, "No, definitely not, we've gotten rid of almost all American products."
@sarahtaber I'm laughing at the guy in the video for saying "there has been unequal trade going on". Yeah, no kidding. That's the whole point of trade; exchanging something you have for something you don't have.
China sends you manufactured goods for your soy beans, would you prefer they sent you soy beans in return to make it "equal"?
And even after they lose their farms, theyāll blame the Dems and they will still support the Orange Man cuz he espouses ātheir values.ā
Really clear thinking, American farmers.
@sarahtaber Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.
H. L. Mencken
If farmers know losing China is a death knell for Americaās soy industry, theyād be up in arms over Trumpās tariff shenanigans.
Theyāre not upset, so they either expect Trump to bail them out forever (Ha!), or they mostly are brainwashed members of Trumpās cult, or both.
@sarahtaber for industrial farming I can appreciate long, consistent carrots. But we should appreciate carrots with character.
Question: does sandy soil let the fertilizer used in industrial farming drain away faster? Because I am concerned about industrial vegetables having less critical minerals than they had in previous generations.
@servelan @Urban_Hermit @sarahtaber
Pedantry incoming!
My current position:
P and K, major components of many fertilizers, are minerals. Though they're classified as macro-nutrients (along with calcium and magnesium I think) unlike other minerals which are classified as micronutrients.
#Gardening #Fertilizers
@skua @servelan @sarahtaber true. I worked QC at a company that filled starter trays with peat moss. The peat moss was fertilized at the factory that mined and shipped it to us. A major part of my job was testing to see if the fungus that got into it had used up some of the fertilizer. If so, we added more. Because the peat moss only had enough for 1 season.
The ions, calcium, potassium, phosphate, magnesium, nitrates, are marked right on the bag.
@Dio9sys
I just checked.
"Magnesium (Mg2+) is not only a quintessential macronutrient but also a cornerstone for the vitality and quality of horticultural crops. Its importance stretches across a broad spectrum of plant physiology, governing photosynthesis, nutrient metabolism, cell membrane stability, enzyme activation, and, notably, its resilience against various environmental stresses."
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10628537/
Magnesium (Mg2+) is pivotal for the vitality, yield, and quality of horticultural crops. Central to plant physiology, Mg2+ powers photosynthesis as an integral component of chlorophyll, bolstering growth and biomass accumulation. Beyond basic ...
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